Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 716103 times)

Aberhound

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3160 on: October 29, 2019, 11:42:09 AM »
That sounds like a CEO whose company just had a very unprofitable Q3. And yet, the stock is up this morning.

Great analysis, pardner.

I'll eat crow here.

Total company gross margin increased in a big way Q/Q -- up something like 440 basis points Q/Q despite declining auto ASPs. Analyst consensus was something like 15.6% and it came in at 18.9%.

Gross margin in the energy segment went from 11.6% to 21.9% Q/Q, an improvement so large that it's baffling. Energy segment revenue was UP by over 9% Q/Q, but cost of revenue was DOWN by 3.5%.

I'm not the only one wondering how gross margins turned around so quickly. JP Morgan note says they would have asked for the impact of "non-recurring items" to be quantified if given the opportunity to ask a question. Bernstein's "guesstimate" is that "one-time items could've represented a 100+ bps sequential help from Q2 to Q3." No one seems to know with any degree of certainty.

I can't remember offhand if I posted here about it last year, but I was expecting Tesla Energy to see significantly improved margins sometime in 2019 because they had not one, but two pricing increases of about 8-10% between Q2 2018 and Q4 2018. Lead times for energy storage systems went out to almost 12 months at one point because of demand and the Model 3 ramp. Gigafactory can handle the volume now, but hadn't ramped up until earlier this year, so last year sounds like it was hell.

Looking at the situation today, Tesla stock still "looks" overvalued, but I would never short it. I think the company made it thru its most challenging period last year and now has a lot of positive catalysts, including Chinese production, Model Y, a simplified and more popular solar product, and continue energy storage growth.

I would add to the list the unveiling of the new Pickup truck in 1 month. The unveiling means deposits and I suspect the specs will cause the deposits to be double or triple or more than the Model 3 deposits based on the massive sales of pick up trucks in the US and the apparent quality of the new product. Of course we won't know for a month but there is information sufficient to come up with rational estimates. For instance it looks to me like this will solve the cash flow problems during this downturn.  It should have the extended range and longer battery life and cheaper production costs from the improved battery design from the recent acquisition and the idea of making it a portable all day power supply for tools at 240V makes it incredibly useful same as the reputed 300,000 lb towing capability. That will haul logs I think. I want one at my lake. These might be the first specs that cause investors to realize what my brother has concluded that in a few years existing vehicles will be seen as depreciating assets while the Tesla with the 500,000 mile battery life will be seen as an appreciating asset due to the incredible usefulness and the new sharing economy. Someone should start a Tesla AirBnB. If you have a newish Ford F-150 or the like short it by selling it, buy Tesla stock and get a cheap truck while you wait and I bet you can buy two or more of these Tesla pickups when they come out in a couple years. By then the depreciation on the Fords and the like will be over $10,000 per year due to short lifespan. Watch for 25% market share in the segment instantly and growing from there. Think of the pricing power Tesla will have when shortages develop. We all need to get out our calculators and figure out what this might be worth and start assigning probabilities. https://youtu.be/uA-7kf_kxaM I am also looking a natural gas and the companies that build natural gas generating plants as the electricity demand in the US is going to soar and natural gas is part of the supply. I am also thinking abort shorts in the Winnebego etc. gas or diesel motorhomes which get killed in downturns. I may be too late as I recall reading recently of the downturn in that sector. The new model will be towed caravans as the economics are obvious. It is way cheaper to drive these things electric and the caravan can have solar and battery banks which supplement the Tesla if the manufacturers have the skill and foresight. Think of it. You pull over and spend the night in your caravan and your solar cells will recharge the battery banks. Less range anxiety. This will increase the mobility of the poor and will be a far better option than a manufactured home in a fixed location because you can move to your job and for a handyman your job moves with the truck and your tools. The rural economy should do well over time as more supercharging stations are built and nice towns building the infrastructure will attract these people causing local booms for smart town councils. I wish the posts would focus more about the future as I find these valuation estimates very challenging as it is difficult to imagine the changes in society which soon will be possible.


gfp

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3161 on: October 29, 2019, 12:01:49 PM »
Quote
Watch for 25% market share in the segment instantly and growing from there.

I can't tell if you are serious or not.  Is this your actual expectation for Tesla's US pickup truck market share or are you messing around?

Spekulatius

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3162 on: October 29, 2019, 12:29:04 PM »
Quote from: Aberhound
You pull over and spend the night in your caravan and your solar cells will recharge the battery banks. Less range anxiety. This will increase the mobility of the poor and will be a far better option than a manufactured home in a fixed location because you can move to your job and for a handyman your job moves with the truck and your tools.
😂
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Aberhound

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3163 on: November 10, 2019, 04:02:10 PM »
Quote
Watch for 25% market share in the segment instantly and growing from there.

I can't tell if you are serious or not.  Is this your actual expectation for Tesla's US pickup truck market share or are you messing around?

I see something and I am struggling to grasp the idea as I suspect we have the potential to buy Apple when just as the Iphone 3 came out. I remember thinking about Apple at $14, Google at $80, and Amazon at $4 and failing to press the buy button. I read Bezos' first annual report and thinking this plan was incredibly wise but I had difficulty thinking the implications through. Like then my ideas are not fully formed by I see something worth investigating.

Part of my thinking is that demographically we are close to the Millennial's big spending years and I suspect millions will end up with the Tesla roofs and vehicles which vehicles are mostly shared out. I am a Boomer and I don't think like Millennials. I scrimped and saved and carefully chose assets I thought would appreciate most. They did. In contrast Millennials look at the world and they are screwed. Wage rates have not grown for 20 years and assets are all super expensive. You cannot get ahead unless you figure out how to utilize things better. Tesla soon will be offering to millennials hope by changing these two major assets into an asset that save money (the roof) or becomes an income earning appreciating assets (the million mile vehicle). Just wait until Telsa's design genius gets their hands on quantum dot glass and v4 of their roof doubles in efficiency and then v5 transform skyscrapers into energy generating towers. Now the roofs are better than a new roof. In the future will it make sense to tear down and replace buildings to convert them to them to something like the v5 which to me seems to be on their path of technology? I post the thoughts in hopes those shorting whose thinking inverts my thoughts try their best to trash these ideas. If you succeed I will be corrected and save myself a lot of money.

This video well explains Tesla's design process advantage. I agree with this video that Tesla is at stage 3 of disruption of the auto industry and soon will enter stage 4:  https://youtu.be/euA8imIDRIo

To me the stage 4 disruption is the change to thinking of your vehicle as being an income earning asset due to the usefulness of the vehicle and the potential to share the 97% or so of the vehicle hours that most people do not use. Pick ups in particular are rarely used for the work purposes they are designed for.

The author of the video cites this great article on disruption and Tesla clearly is the disruptor by these tests: https://www.vox.com/2014/1/6/11622000/the-four-stages-of-disruption-2

He also cites this great article on Musk's thinking process. Both techniques are useful for any investor.

https://www.independent.co.uk/business/elon-musk-uses-this-ancient-critical-thinking-strategy-to-outsmart-everybody-else-a7990601.html

We think of Tesla as a car company but isn't it more accurately described as a company that is going to take the biggest sectors ie energy and vehicles and re-imagine how they will be used in society? Technology is changing and improving at incredible rate and my thesis is that this Tesla approach will create a company with moat like we rarely see. Legacy companies almost never can make the transition. The future competitor is likely to be a new entrant and that is incredibly difficult in the car business in particular. The question is are they or will they be in a position that Amazon found themselves in that Amazon was so far ahead no one will ever be able to compete with them effectively.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3164 on: November 10, 2019, 07:43:27 PM »
Aberhound,

I could write about how, in all likelihood, the impetus for the original 10/2016 Solar Roof presentation was to convince TSLA shareholders to vote for the acquisition of the rapidly failing SolarCity. This is currently being litigated.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/how-elon-musk-gambled-tesla-to-save-solarcity

I could write about how Solar Roof v1 and v2 have basically been vaporware, with very few actual installations. Reuters found only 12 installations as of 5/2018. More generally, SolarCity deployed something like 201 megawatts of solar in Q4 2016 (the quarter it was acquired by Tesla). Last quarter it deployed 43. In Q2 it was only 29.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/24/tesla-solar-roof-tiles-where-are-they.html

I could write at length about the fiasco that Tesla's announcement (via conference call) of Solar Roof v3 (I have no idea where you are getting info about v4 and v5) was last month. Scheduled at the last minute, then rescheduled at the last second for late afternoon on a Friday, the call was painfully awkward to listen to. Musk stated that "Our goal is to get north of 1000 roofs per week ASAP", but then refused to answer a softball question about how many installation crews TSLA had working on Solar Roof installations.


But instead of writing all that, I'm just going to say "OK, boomer"