Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 854553 times)

thowed

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3850 on: May 14, 2020, 01:44:10 AM »
Please try and not make it "personal".  Cheers!

+1


jalebijim

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3851 on: May 14, 2020, 03:01:35 AM »
Giga Berlin is coming along nicely and on schedule, nice current footage.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0zTCbLwYw0
Full Disclosure: Long TSLA >50% of trading portfolio.

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3852 on: May 14, 2020, 07:05:57 AM »
Hope you are enjoying your coal car.

Coal is getting ever smaller as a part of the US power grid, and in many other places it is inexistent (where I am, for example is, 100% hydro):



Even running on 100% coal, an EV isn't that far from a gasoline car when it comes to CO2, because ICEs are so inefficient compared to electric motors (70-80% of the energy in a gallon of gasoline is wasted as heat). When it comes to smog forming emissions, it's a bit more complex; power plants tend to be much farther away from population centers and people's lungs than tailpipes. But EVs are mostly charged as night from baseload or excess wind power and don't contribute much to peak during the day and don't make coal plants run more than they would otherwise at those times, so any additional load will go to peakers which aren't coal.

Since most place only run partially on coal, the EV is much better than a gasoline car, and over time it gets better as the grid is cleaned up, while the gasoline car gets worse as wear and tear tends to make it less efficient. In fact, EVs can help the grid handle more renewables because they can act as a distributed battery that can store cheap (sometimes even negatively priced) excess renewables on very sunny/windy days.

Basically, what you're saying it just a slogan, and like most slogans, it doesn't tell the whole stories and is more misleading than elucidating.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2020, 07:07:37 AM by Liberty »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

JRM

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3853 on: May 14, 2020, 08:15:39 AM »
That was a throwaway comment, for sure.  I'll try to keep it above board from here on out.

This is where we are at today.  About 10 years ago we were at about 33% coal use (in the US), so that is a good drop.  Many coal plants in this country are set to retire in the next 10 years.  I would expect the contribution of nuclear to come down, as well, in the next 15-20 years.  Historically the trend in electrical usage has been steady growth in line with GDP.  The last 10-15 years has seen stagnation in energy growth.  Energy efficiency and outsourcing of manufacturing being the culprit. 

We can debate whether or not natural gas has a use as a bridge fuel until we can be fully renewable or another game changer comes along.  I think its a pretty good option, and so do a lot of other people.  Distributed generation is the future.  A connected grid still has a purpose as does a local utility to provide distribution and VAR support. 

We are making good progress.  It doesn't happen overnight, though.

arcube

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3854 on: May 14, 2020, 08:45:28 AM »
Giga Berlin is coming along nicely and on schedule, nice current footage.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0zTCbLwYw0

Thanks for keeping us updated Jalebi.

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3855 on: May 14, 2020, 08:50:48 AM »
We can debate whether or not natural gas has a use as a bridge fuel until we can be fully renewable or another game changer comes along. 

The way costs for solar, wind, and storage are going, they'll be a massive part of the grid at some point. few other things will make sense. It's just hard to compete with something that doesn't have fuel costs and where the capital costs are going down exponentially.. Fossil fuel costs are low lately (but can go back up, predicting commodities is impossible), but the pollution they cause has a cost and will eventually be internalized back in their price and will make them uncompetitive.

Eventually fusion could contribute a lot too (tokamak designs seem promising and have made progress with ITER), but that's farther off.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2020, 09:04:36 AM by Liberty »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

jalebijim

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3856 on: May 14, 2020, 09:04:27 PM »
Giga Berlin is coming along nicely and on schedule, nice current footage.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0zTCbLwYw0

Thanks for keeping us updated Jalebi.


You are welcome.






It is rumored that the Rothschilds had early information on the Battle of Waterloo and made a fortune(not sure how much of that is fiction).

Accurate early information = money.

The beauty of the internet is if we know where to look it is possible to keep an eye on our investment fundamentals.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2020, 09:06:21 PM by jalebijim »
Full Disclosure: Long TSLA >50% of trading portfolio.

jalebijim

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3857 on: May 14, 2020, 09:18:01 PM »
This is a really interesting chart that shows global charge sessions as a percentage of maximum.

If electric cars get a wider adoption this data could be a correlate for economic activity like cardboard box sales.

I find the Asia-Pacific data fascinating.



Right now this data is probably not very accurate as an indicator of economic activity.
1. Small sample size in China
2. High representation of the "wealthy coastal elites" in the USA.
3. Etc

« Last Edit: May 14, 2020, 09:19:46 PM by jalebijim »
Full Disclosure: Long TSLA >50% of trading portfolio.

jschembs

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3858 on: May 15, 2020, 06:43:45 AM »
Very negative podcast / interviews related to Musk:

https://theintercept.com/2020/05/14/is-elon-musk-a-fraud/

ERICOPOLY

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3859 on: May 15, 2020, 07:11:15 AM »

Accurate early information = money.


It's good to be the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee until it isn't :-)