Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 885620 times)

fareastwarriors

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3860 on: May 15, 2020, 12:39:00 PM »
Tesla’s next factory is going to be in Austin, Texas and it’s going to happen quickly

https://electrek.co/2020/05/15/tesla-factory-austin-texas/


jalebijim

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3861 on: May 15, 2020, 10:01:15 PM »

Accurate early information = money.


It's good to be the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee until it isn't :-)




Lol, but in the grand scheme of things I don't think cheating is a successful life strategy. In the short-term it might work but in the long-term only hard learned heuristics for dealing with reality have worked for me.




I read through the old posts on this board and it seems like you, Dalal among others have had the most rational clear thinking.

You bought the car, called the dealership to do some battery analysis, did some informal analysis from your peer group, have a tech background. From an outsiders perspective it seemed like you were running the classic Peter Lynch play on the financial field.

As far as I can tell I don't think you bought the stock.

May I ask why?

Were you going for a turbocharged modified buffet strategy instead?

Stable "old school" business with a moat + temporary low price due to misperceived outside influences + tremendous protected leverage = Financial independence escape velocity.



Gregmal

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3862 on: May 22, 2020, 01:48:17 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/ark-invest-ceo-why-weve-sold-tesla-despite-our-long-term-bull-case.html

This lady continues to make the "other pros" look terrible. As she continues to cash out, eventually the wins pile up and the critics have nothing to do outside of woefully excuse their busted shorts, or make excuses for why they missed it.

Girl knows how to trade too.


“We had an up year, and I think one of the important reasons is we trade around the volatility,” Wood said. “If Tesla is going down because some hedge fund or negative analyst is saying something that seems really awful, we have a pretty good handle given our research on that stock that we’ll be buying into it unless it’s a big surprise to us.”

“On the contrary, when we feel like analysts are hyperventilating about a stock — and including Tesla, when there were takeover rumors of it helped by Elon Musk himself — we naturally just take profits because we know we’re going to get another opportunity associated with controversy to buy the stock lower,” she said.

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3863 on: May 22, 2020, 02:11:48 PM »
Quote
“It never lost the number one position in our funds. If we had not taken profits in its ride up from [$]178 to 900 or nearly 1,000, it would’ve been ... maybe over 20% of the fund,” she said. “That would not be wise portfolio management. We like to control our position sizes.”

Seems pretty uncontroversial to keep position sizing not too large to mitigate risks when managing other people's money. Isn't this pretty standard for portfolio managers? Is she getting flak for it?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Gregmal

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3864 on: May 22, 2020, 02:20:13 PM »
Quote
“It never lost the number one position in our funds. If we had not taken profits in its ride up from [$]178 to 900 or nearly 1,000, it would’ve been ... maybe over 20% of the fund,” she said. “That would not be wise portfolio management. We like to control our position sizes.”

Seems pretty uncontroversial to keep position sizing not too large to mitigate risks when managing other people's money. Isn't this pretty standard for portfolio managers? Is she getting flak for it?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You haven't seen the "she s a pump and dump artist" bs? Im sure you can guess from who...

wescobrk

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3865 on: May 22, 2020, 05:15:02 PM »
Anyone on the board a client of Ark? I understand her point about being able to buy more as she thinks there will be downside volatility but it is very illogical.
Her base case is her clients make 10x their money in 3.5 years (the bull case is 20x) but she won't let it ever get anywhere near 20% of the fund.

If I was a client, why the hell would I care if I make 10x my money in 3.5 years. By her logic, the most they will make is maybe a double from here if she keeps it less than 10% of her portfolio.
Why not just put 10% of the fund in leaps then and make 100x?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/ark-invest-ceo-why-weve-sold-tesla-despite-our-long-term-bull-case.html

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3866 on: May 23, 2020, 02:15:18 PM »
Quote
“It never lost the number one position in our funds. If we had not taken profits in its ride up from [$]178 to 900 or nearly 1,000, it would’ve been ... maybe over 20% of the fund,” she said. “That would not be wise portfolio management. We like to control our position sizes.”

Seems pretty uncontroversial to keep position sizing not too large to mitigate risks when managing other people's money. Isn't this pretty standard for portfolio managers? Is she getting flak for it?  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You haven't seen the "she s a pump and dump artist" bs? Im sure you can guess from who...

Chanos?

Did you know that Wood says they have the best research on Tesla because they have 4 different types of analysts following the stock (autonomous tech & Robotics, mobility as a service, etc) but that in practice none of them is an analyst that has experience in the automotive sector?

A couple of months ago her Director of Research didn’t even know how to account for the fact that some car companies have a captive financing arm.

It’s even more bizarre btw that Tesla is actually the laughing stock in the autonomous space and Ark that claims to have experience in the area doesn’t seem to even get that.

But yeah, she is still the one looking smart for now.

JRM

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3867 on: May 24, 2020, 10:45:13 AM »
I'm not trying to trigger anybody, I promise.  Honest intellectual curiosity here.

My recollection is that Kathy went on CNBC multiple times late last year to talk how much Tesla was worth and even published Ark's Tesla valuation model on Reddit.  After the first CNBC appearance it was reported that Ark had trimmed its position due to sizing.  I believe this was in the October time frame and the share price was in the ballpark of $320 per share, and they sold about 37% of their shares.  I quit following the story, so I don't know if they ever bought back in at higher prices.  Does anybody know if they did?  I really don't think they rode this from the 100's to the 900's and executed a perfectly timed trade.  Nothing wrong with making money.

It's also curious that their model said Tesla was worth nearly $400 per share even if they never sold another car again.  It must have been tough to have to sell at such a discount to intrinsic value.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 01:14:09 PM by JRM »

jalebijim

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3868 on: May 25, 2020, 03:27:23 PM »
ARK trades are available and open on their website for anyone to see.

A Dhandho Investor

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #3869 on: May 27, 2020, 02:29:39 AM »
https://electrek.co/2020/05/27/tesla-cuts-prices-lineup/

Naturally they are making too much profits and want to make the car more affordable.

Quote
For Model 3, its cheapest and most popular car, it results in a $2,000 price cut across all powertrain options.

It now starts at $37,990 instead of $39,990 for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus.

The Model S Long Range Plus now starts at just $74,990 – a $5,000 price reduction overnight:

Prediction: they will kitchen sink Q2 and unwind a number of the levers they pulled in previous quarters. Accounts receivable will suddenly decrease, they will take impairments on the residual value guarantees they have in place, they will sell less EV credits than they had in Q1.

Does anybody know btw why the regulatory credits do not appear on Tesla's balance sheet in one way or another? In Q1 for instance, 354m of regulatory credits "magically" fell through the bottom line of the P&L, but they were not accounted for (visible on the balance sheet) as per 31/12/2019.