Author Topic: TSLA - Tesla Motors  (Read 960428 times)

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4200 on: September 24, 2020, 04:43:46 PM »
Spek,

Help me understand what you mean. Whatever has been replaced (the original structural part) to reduce weight would have totaled the car as well in an event of crash? No, what am I missing?

Thanks.

If the battery becomes a structural component of the car, every small crash will likely total the car. A battery failure of any sort will do the same.
Hopefully, they thought this through. Even right now, it seems that Tesla cars are very expensive to repair.

It won't be much more structural than it is now. They just removed some of the extra stuff around it, but the battery pack is already most of the mass and stifness of the chassis, and it won't be bigger or in much of a different spot. In fact, it'll be less likely to be damaged because it's a bit more centered than before.


jschembs

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4201 on: September 24, 2020, 09:37:01 PM »
I've been unbelievably wrong about TSLA, so I thought it'd be interesting to read through old posts. For as much consternation as this stock has created, what a prescient post from six years ago. Great reminder how narrative can drive many stocks for far longer than anyone would expect.


jschembs

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4202 on: September 24, 2020, 09:57:39 PM »
Also in that vein, it's fun to look back at certain other predictions that didn't pan out. If your 2010 master plan suggested an affordable car that ended up being the S, 15 years after the attached prediction you're not close to achieving a $25k car, how does one model future cash flows for this business?

Jurgis

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4203 on: September 24, 2020, 10:21:27 PM »
Correct predictions may or may not help you to be a good investor (produce alpha).

Correct or incorrect predictions do not necessarily make you a good/bad investor.

They also do not necessarily make you a good/bad entrepreneur.
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jschembs

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4204 on: September 24, 2020, 10:24:27 PM »
Correct predictions may or may not help you to be a good investor (produce alpha).

Correct or incorrect predictions do not necessarily make you a good/bad investor.

They also do not necessarily make you a good/bad entrepreneur.

Agreed, I made the point more so because I think there's a very clear trend of underdelivering, and so it would seem logical to incorporate that into one's forecasts...

Spekulatius

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4205 on: September 25, 2020, 04:18:12 AM »
Correct predictions may or may not help you to be a good investor (produce alpha).

Correct or incorrect predictions do not necessarily make you a good/bad investor.

They also do not necessarily make you a good/bad entrepreneur.

Agreed, I made the point more so because I think there's a very clear trend of underdelivering, and so it would seem logical to incorporate that into one's forecasts...

The stock is driven by narrative more than any other stock that I have seen. 80%+ of itís value is in ElonĎs personality and the narrative.

I bet if VW brings in a car equivalent to Tesla, it still would trade at the some crappy valuation. They canít compete, because they donít have the Tesla mystique. Elon could (and should) raise $20B right now and the stock would probably rise because they could spent the money to R&D everyone else into the ground.
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rkbabang

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4206 on: September 25, 2020, 07:46:29 AM »
Correct predictions may or may not help you to be a good investor (produce alpha).

Correct or incorrect predictions do not necessarily make you a good/bad investor.

They also do not necessarily make you a good/bad entrepreneur.

Agreed, I made the point more so because I think there's a very clear trend of underdelivering, and so it would seem logical to incorporate that into one's forecasts...

The stock is driven by narrative more than any other stock that I have seen. 80%+ of itís value is in ElonĎs personality and the narrative.

I bet if VW brings in a car equivalent to Tesla, it still would trade at the some crappy valuation. They canít compete, because they donít have the Tesla mystique. Elon could (and should) raise $20B right now and the stock would probably rise because they could spent the money to R&D everyone else into the ground.

I think the word you're looking for is "Brand".  Tesla has become a desirable brand.  It is like trying to explain why people buy Coca-Cola when the store brand of cola flavored sugar water tastes just as good for a fraction of the price.

JRM

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4207 on: September 25, 2020, 07:53:56 AM »
Correct predictions may or may not help you to be a good investor (produce alpha).

Correct or incorrect predictions do not necessarily make you a good/bad investor.

They also do not necessarily make you a good/bad entrepreneur.
Agreed, I made the point more so because I think there's a very clear trend of underdelivering, and so it would seem logical to incorporate that into one's forecasts...

The stock is driven by narrative more than any other stock that I have seen. 80%+ of itís value is in ElonĎs personality and the narrative.

I bet if VW brings in a car equivalent to Tesla, it still would trade at the some crappy valuation. They canít compete, because they donít have the Tesla mystique. Elon could (and should) raise $20B right now and the stock would probably rise because they could spent the money to R&D everyone else into the ground.

I think the word you're looking for is "Brand".  Tesla has become a desirable brand.  It is like trying to explain why people buy Coca-Cola when the store brand of cola flavored sugar water tastes just as good for a fraction of the price.

The stock is not the same thing as the company.  None of the top brands command the equity valuation of Tesla.  In the 1990's they called them story stocks.  Now it's called narrative investing. 

Liberty

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4208 on: September 25, 2020, 01:41:15 PM »
Judging Musk on his predictions is pointless.

Instead, judge him on what he delivers vs others.

People drive cars, not predictions.

Spekulatius

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Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Reply #4209 on: September 25, 2020, 05:33:51 PM »
Interesting, electricity in Germany is so expensive, that charging up an electric car can be more expansive than fueling with Diesel. And Diesel is heavily taxed in Germany...
https://www.spiegel.de/auto/elektroauto-vs-diesel-und-benziner-strompreis-als-kostenfalle-a-6d8f929e-d742-439e-8de5-0f5bda3f5ecc

This is probably coming to California too.
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