If you've got an itch to short the bubble, perhaps finding something that hasn't proven to be resilient and more or less bullet proof for nearly a decade makes sense. The only way to make money shorting Tesla is to more or less nail every facet of the trade, specifically, right down to the timing. And if thats something you have confidence in your ability to do, there's almost certainly higher upside trades to put on, that would likely coincide with the same catalysts.
I know you know this already, but reminding everyone "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".
Professor Damodaran updated his Tesla valuation with a DCF model (he bought the stock and sold).
His valuation is quite detailed and puts a lot of thought into it, I will quote his blog post. Even in his blue-sky scenario of giving them best of breed revenue ($300B), best of breed operating margins (21% - unheard of for capital intensive industry), his price target is much lower than the price today (approaching $3000 pre-split).
"The Make-your-best Company: In this variant, I give Tesla the best possible outcomes on each variable, revenues like VW/Toyota, margins like pure software companies (21.24%), a sales to capital ratio that is higher than any of the sector averages (4.00) and a cost of capital of an auto company (6.94%), and arrive at a value per share of $2106."
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/02/a-do-it-yourself-diy-valuation-of-tesla.htmlI don't know how long this party ends (1 month, 3 months, 12 months, 2 years, 5 years, 50 years), but my own feeling, is the party will end.
In my limited experience, bubbles do end, however, like we saw in 1998-2000, they can last longer than most people think.
