TSLA - Tesla Motors

[bathtime]

A technical analyst I follow has a major intermediate top on TSLA in the range that was reached today. So I put on a small put position as a trade.

[bathtime]

I have an elderly relative who was a pretty savvy business man in his prime. Our family set him up with a smart TV a few year ago which allows him to watch Youtube videos on the TV. At some point about 20 months ago he watched an electric vehicle video on Youtube and ever since then the Youtube suggestion algorithms have bombarded him with "Tesla News" videos produced by people trying to collect referral fees. Despite our efforts to explain to him that these were biased videos, he became convinced by these "experts" that Tesla was a game changer on the brink of world domination. Earlier this year for the first time in 50 years he walked down to his bank branch, opened a brokerage account and purchased 25k worth of Tesla stock.

It has been very disturbing to basically observe an app brainwash a comfortably retired person into believing they need to act now and buy this stock even when they have no need for money. I have read many accounts of various investment manias that have occurred over history but this sure seems like a new one.

Thanks, yes it’s really interesting to see the phenomenon of group psychology x the internet today in relation to TSLA. I think the bubble today isn’t as pronounced in some ways as 99, but is more pronounced in other ways - more of a global phenomenon, free trades, people staying at home, upper bounds of mcap expansion by the FAANGs, algorithmic media.

[Morgan]

A number of non-finance friends have also mentioned to me they have purchased Tesla stock recently. It’s not very much money, but it’s one of their first stock purchases in general. Sounds like we’re getting closer to a top perhaps. While Tesla is an incredible company, surely there is limit to where the market cap can go. I told them to be careful. At this point, it might double if the mania continues, but it’s not going to be 3-10x. There are limits to where this can go.

[rkbabang]

I have an elderly relative who was a pretty savvy business man in his prime. Our family set him up with a smart TV a few year ago which allows him to watch Youtube videos on the TV. At some point about 20 months ago he watched an electric vehicle video on Youtube and ever since then the Youtube suggestion algorithms have bombarded him with "Tesla News" videos produced by people trying to collect referral fees. Despite our efforts to explain to him that these were biased videos, he became convinced by these "experts" that Tesla was a game changer on the brink of world domination. Earlier this year for the first time in 50 years he walked down to his bank branch, opened a brokerage account and purchased 25k worth of Tesla stock.

It has been very disturbing to basically observe an app brainwash a comfortably retired person into believing they need to act now and buy this stock even when they have no need for money. I have read many accounts of various investment manias that have occurred over history but this sure seems like a new one.

If that was earlier this year then he has done quite well, see if you can convince him to sell and enjoy his gains.

[rossef2]

A number of non-finance friends have also mentioned to me they have purchased Tesla stock recently. It’s not very much money, but it’s one of their first stock purchases in general. Sounds like we’re getting closer to a top perhaps. While Tesla is an incredible company, surely there is limit to where the market cap can go. I told them to be careful. At this point, it might double if the mania continues, but it’s not going to be 3-10x. There are limits to where this can go.

I have a similar situation, the rise of these new brokerage apps which attempt to gamify investing, couple with the massive surge in price of Apple, Tesla etc has drawn in a lot of people to markets with zero knowledge. I noticed a friend in work looking at the share prices of TSLA and APPL and asked if he was buying (I generally dislike discussing investing but I knew he was a novice), he said he was looking at putting money into Tesla but couldn't understand why it was valued more than Apple. I was a bit confused at first but then realised that because TSLA's share price was more than APPL's he assumed it was worth more. A lot of people are going to lose money when it all goes pear shaped.

[Simba]

Are we going to see a Tesla Infinity Squeeze 2.0 that happened to Volkswagen stock in 2008?

"It also proved to be a historical moment in markets. At €999, Volkswagen briefly became the largest company by market capitalisation in the world, with a value of $420bn, eclipsing Exxon Mobil, Petro China and Micros" (Source: FT)

https://www.ft.com/content/0a58b63a-4294-3e07-8390-c3aabef39a26

[Xerxes]

Scary
Some 9 years ago, Apple surpassed long-time heavy weight champion Exxon in market cap.
I am sure back then it made no sense seeing a phone maker surpass an industrial giant in a pre-shale oil and gas environment. Yet market saw it correctly.

While I hope Tesla will continue to push to change the work, I just hope 10 years from now Berkshire won’t be as irrelevant as Exxon is today.

Perhaps this belongs in the thread that talks about BRK 10 years from now

Based on stock price? Or on earnings ? At current trajectory, expect BRK’s economic earnings to have passed $100 Billion. And perhaps the earnings coffers filled with a cumulative  half a trillion .

Sorry, forgot to answer. I was speaking more of the symbolism.
Tesla's crossing Berkshire market cap could very well be like the brief peak that Cisco had back in 2000 or it could be an Apple-Exxon moment.

One thing for sure, WSJ, Financial Times and all other financial media have gotten their newspaper piece ready to go once Tesla market cap overtakes Berkshire, assuming it hasnt already.

[benchmark]

A technical analyst I follow has a major intermediate top on TSLA in the range that was reached today. So I put on a small put position as a trade.

How do you get a put position,  by buying put options?

[bathtime]

A technical analyst I follow has a major intermediate top on TSLA in the range that was reached today. So I put on a small put position as a trade.

How do you get a put position,  by buying put options?

Yes, if anyone has recs on time and strike I’m interested.

[Candyman1]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/30/tesla-to-be-addedto-the-sp-500-in-two-parts-to-account-for-its-size-an-unprecedented-move.html

I am curious how the execution of this will work. They will add it all at once before the open on Dec 21 2020. I know many think that with the volume the indexes need to buy the stock can only trade up. When I calculated how many shares would have to be bought by S&P500 index funds I got to a little less than one sixth of the float. But here is the tricky issue in my estimation. Those index funds will have to buy Market on Open I guess, meaning no limit. But those that bought the stock in order to flip it to index funds will have to do the same. Could there be a situation where there will be more seller on open than buyers? It is not as if this one was not advertized to the Robin Hood crowd ahead of time. Imagine if there is way more volume being offered on the open than is needed, without limit on those orders?

The sellers could put in a regular limit order but what if you don't fill on the open and a minute post the open the "event" you bet on is gone.

Could it be that the index funds might have other ways of buying? With that I mean that they might just do a VWAP on Dec 21 or start buying a few days ahead of time? Or give themselves a few days to buy? I am not sure what is allowed technically in this situation.

Interesting situation. I look forward in being a spectator on Dec 21.