Author Topic: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics  (Read 39042 times)

snowball82

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #100 on: December 21, 2019, 04:03:42 AM »
Here the press release about the tender offer to Biotoscana’s shareholders. If this works the EBITDA at GUD should be +/- $ 50 M next year. And still have + $ 300 M cash (including Medison).

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/12/20/1963777/0/en/Knight-Therapeutics-Announces-Submission-to-B3-S-A-For-Unified-Tender-Offer.html

Long
« Last Edit: December 21, 2019, 04:05:23 AM by snowball82 »


snowball82

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #101 on: December 28, 2019, 12:10:49 PM »
Some analysts see more than $ 270 M revenues, $ 50 M EBITDA and +/-  $ 0.35-0.40 EPS after the closing (ref. GBT's 49 %).

I have asked this question on another board and I'm curious to know the views from you here. If those numbers are right, what do you expect as valuation over next 12 months ?

See below the only estimate we got for now

https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gud&postid=30496387

Thanks

I own a large position



« Last Edit: December 28, 2019, 12:17:02 PM by snowball82 »

kab60

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #102 on: December 29, 2019, 10:56:02 AM »
Don't see why it should change valuation (and it obviously hasn't). No obvious synergies, they paid the market price. Still expensive on P/E, SOTP unchanged. Not saying the acquisition was a mistake, but it still comes down to execution (and now perhaps currencies as well?).

snowball82

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #103 on: December 29, 2019, 11:26:00 AM »
Don't see why it should change valuation (and it obviously hasn't). No obvious synergies, they paid the market price. Still expensive on P/E, SOTP unchanged. Not saying the acquisition was a mistake, but it still comes down to execution (and now perhaps currencies as well?).

So we have a vote for a valuation at $ 7.60 here. Thanks. Maybe you are right but they also have lots of cash to deploy. Post acquisition they should still have more than $ 320 M cash (if Medison pays like they are supposed to do). Like you said, the execution is the key.

2020 should be interesting. Others opinions about the valuation post acquisition ?

wisowis

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #104 on: December 29, 2019, 11:50:16 AM »
Quote
- $2.25 cash (excess over $40 million)
- $0.25 in loans (80% of balance sheet value)
- $0.06 in stocks
- $0.72 in fund investments (80% of balance sheet value)

Pharma business now valued at 15.3x EBIT, growing at 20+% annually

- Tyler (@cdnvaluestocks) https://twitter.com/cdnvaluestocks/status/1197661326883147779

kab60

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #105 on: December 30, 2019, 12:16:23 AM »
Don't see why it should change valuation (and it obviously hasn't). No obvious synergies, they paid the market price. Still expensive on P/E, SOTP unchanged. Not saying the acquisition was a mistake, but it still comes down to execution (and now perhaps currencies as well?).

So we have a vote for a valuation at $ 7.60 here. Thanks. Maybe you are right but they also have lots of cash to deploy. Post acquisition they should still have more than $ 320 M cash (if Medison pays like they are supposed to do). Like you said, the execution is the key.

2020 should be interesting. Others opinions about the valuation post acquisition ?
I think it's difficult to get to a very different valuation than the current. I've only seen very light analysis on Grupo Biotoscana which is suddenly a very large component of the value, and I think that's a bit surprising. Isn't that a major deviation from the strategy, why has Biotoscana been such a dog, and how is that suddenly gonna change? Isn't one of the problems with Knight that Goodman raised too much money, so that all these small deals that he has done don't meaningfully move the needle? And now he has suddenly taken a major bet on Latin America. Perhaps Biotoscana is simply good value investering from Goodman, but I haven't seen much to support that view. Hopefully they'll elaborate a bit further when the deal is all set and done. I think it looks very interesting here.

snowball82

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #106 on: December 30, 2019, 01:44:35 PM »
Don't see why it should change valuation (and it obviously hasn't). No obvious synergies, they paid the market price. Still expensive on P/E, SOTP unchanged. Not saying the acquisition was a mistake, but it still comes down to execution (and now perhaps currencies as well?).

So we have a vote for a valuation at $ 7.60 here. Thanks. Maybe you are right but they also have lots of cash to deploy. Post acquisition they should still have more than $ 320 M cash (if Medison pays like they are supposed to do). Like you said, the execution is the key.

2020 should be interesting. Others opinions about the valuation post acquisition ?
I think it's difficult to get to a very different valuation than the current. I've only seen very light analysis on Grupo Biotoscana which is suddenly a very large component of the value, and I think that's a bit surprising. Isn't that a major deviation from the strategy, why has Biotoscana been such a dog, and how is that suddenly gonna change? Isn't one of the problems with Knight that Goodman raised too much money, so that all these small deals that he has done don't meaningfully move the needle? And now he has suddenly taken a major bet on Latin America. Perhaps Biotoscana is simply good value investering from Goodman, but I haven't seen much to support that view. Hopefully they'll elaborate a bit further when the deal is all set and done. I think it looks very interesting here.

Biotoscana group is a public company so we can see the previous financials results there:

https://ri.grupobiotoscana.com/en/financial-information/result-center/

That said, we know the results had been impacted by Actelion's loss.

« Last Edit: December 30, 2019, 01:50:10 PM by snowball82 »

snowball82

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #107 on: January 06, 2020, 07:24:34 PM »
Don't see why it should change valuation (and it obviously hasn't). No obvious synergies, they paid the market price. Still expensive on P/E, SOTP unchanged. Not saying the acquisition was a mistake, but it still comes down to execution (and now perhaps currencies as well?).

So we have a vote for a valuation at $ 7.60 here. Thanks. Maybe you are right but they also have lots of cash to deploy. Post acquisition they should still have more than $ 320 M cash (if Medison pays like they are supposed to do). Like you said, the execution is the key.

2020 should be interesting. Others opinions about the valuation post acquisition ?
I think it's difficult to get to a very different valuation than the current. I've only seen very light analysis on Grupo Biotoscana which is suddenly a very large component of the value, and I think that's a bit surprising. Isn't that a major deviation from the strategy, why has Biotoscana been such a dog, and how is that suddenly gonna change? Isn't one of the problems with Knight that Goodman raised too much money, so that all these small deals that he has done don't meaningfully move the needle? And now he has suddenly taken a major bet on Latin America. Perhaps Biotoscana is simply good value investering from Goodman, but I haven't seen much to support that view. Hopefully they'll elaborate a bit further when the deal is all set and done. I think it looks very interesting here.

The Biotoscana’s appraisal report is available:

https://www.docdroid.net/LMu6nIa/laudo-de-avaliacao-pwcpten.pdf#page=3

https://apicatalog.mziq.com/filemanager/v2/d/f78739c6-0e47-4145-8a2e-947b5835a922/60c2f7bf-82b1-e222-d22a-6c9436ed8bc3?origin=2

« Last Edit: January 07, 2020, 09:05:34 AM by snowball82 »


snowball82

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Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics
« Reply #109 on: January 09, 2020, 02:05:56 PM »
The new investor presentation is available.

https://www.gud-knight.com/wp-content/uploads/KTI_Corporate_Presentation_December-vF.pdf

Do you believe in a higher valuation from $ 7.60 to $ 10.00 at year end?

Who knows, maybe possible  if they can close GBT. Now waiting the approval by the Brazilian Stock Exchange.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2020, 02:12:28 PM by snowball82 »