Author Topic: AIM.TO - Aimia  (Read 152285 times)

Cigarbutt

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #610 on: January 08, 2020, 10:30:26 AM »
Somebody reached out for some info (that deals with potential downside).
So, to balance what is being prepared to deal with the upside (I guess), here:
https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1076077661&serialid=bEgJTK6cGryWMbHjGREee83G%2FENa1dsABciWj4Yx34w%3D
https://hbk.bb.com.br/hbkDocs/MPLUFR.pdf


Homestead31

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #611 on: January 14, 2020, 06:04:58 AM »
Delta reported today - i haven't gone through it, but quick highlights are $4.1 billion in free cash flow, and leverage at the low end of their targets.

I still think that if Aimia wanted to sell PLM - and I don't think they do in the near term - Delta would be the best buyer, and Delta could pay a fair and full price with no problem at all.

Aeromexico's original bid was a joke - but a completely rational joke.  The old board had already demonstrated through the "sale" of Nectar that they were completely incompetent and did not understand the value of loyalty businesses, so why not just lob in a bid and try to take advantage of the incompetence?  Similarly, i think there is a credible case to be made that the Alexander capital valuation is flawed - perhaps intentionally so.

Time will tell.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 08:10:52 AM by Homestead31 »

Homestead31

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #612 on: January 16, 2020, 06:26:55 AM »
Interesting pitch on Delta from the Manual of Ideas (MOI) best ideas conference: https://moiglobal.com/adam-j-schwartz-202001/

the key takeaway from the pitch is that credit card fees that Delta gets from American Express justify the entire purchase price of the stock, meaning you get the planes etc. for free.

I don't have a strong opinion of this view, but I'd be willing to bet that the people at Delta do, and it seems likely they realize that the cash flows from credit cards are more valuable than the planes.

Hard to believe Delta wouldn't pay a fair price for Aimia's stake in PLM if Aimia did indeed want to sell it.

Homestead31

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #613 on: January 16, 2020, 06:32:22 AM »
.......aaaaaaand credit suisse out with a research piece also suggesting that the cash stream from american express justifies the entire market cap of Delta.  just showing that the folks at black bear value fund aren't completely crazy or anything.  other people get it too.

Dr. Aybolit

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Re: AIM.TO - Aimia
« Reply #614 on: January 16, 2020, 08:17:15 AM »
Yep, and imagine if you could invest in the best part of an airline, without the heavy cyclicality of an airline attached, oh wait...