Author Topic: TV - Grupo Televisa  (Read 5667 times)

cameronfen

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Re: TV - Grupo Televisa
« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2019, 03:14:28 PM »
VersaillesinNY, please ignore my prior comment and elaborate on your comments.

Cameronfen, please view my comments as simply trying to think about what is the base rate probability that an upper middle class person (similar to most of us on this board) in Mexico would think a company / person of immense wealth is corrupt. I'm also taking into consideration the base rate probability that VersaillesinNY knows someone "on the inside" with deep knowledge of how corrupt this company is.

VersaillesinNY, I am very interested in your perspective on this topic. Please do share.

Cool understood.


Spekulatius

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Re: TV - Grupo Televisa
« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2019, 03:55:34 PM »
I am pretty sure that the leadership of TV is somewhat corrupt. These guys are part of the Elite around Pemex, Carlos Slim and the like that have the politicians in their pocket. I kind of like the New Mexican president and yes he has a socialist background, but seems pragmatic sonnst, but runs a coalitions with the right too and seems to try to dismantle the crusty elite that had been sucking out blood too long. Too early to tell, but I am somewhat optimistic.

I do know that TV missed earnings because the government reduced advertising. I am not even sure why the government should spent that much on advertising on TV and I think itís a the right move to just get rid of it. I also would appreciate if the government would step up pressure on TV to break up, as I think this might unlock a lot of value.

Anything that sheds light into TV Management is appreciated. I keep warnings in mind,and control risk with position size. Do far itís a small bet for me, but I like the odds.
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VersaillesinNY

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Re: TV - Grupo Televisa
« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2019, 07:02:20 AM »
Somebody asked for an opinion on Televisa and I gave a warning. Feel free to ignore it or invest accordingly.
There are so many great and well-managed companies in Mexico, IMO Televisa is not one of them.

After conducting interviews within the digital media in Mexico DF, my impression is that there are still bad apples and bad practices within Televisaís leadership.

In addition, itís publicly documented that Televisa was involved in a bribery scheme to obtain broadcasting rights for FIFA World Cup soccer matches.

The business ethics at Televisa doesnít seem right to me.
But, some investors can find it's stock price attractive and still make money trading it.

Disclosure: I have no position in TV, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hrs. I believe to have reliable sources.

Spekulatius

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Re: TV - Grupo Televisa
« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2019, 08:01:13 AM »
Somebody asked for an opinion on Televisa and I gave a warning. Feel free to ignore it or invest accordingly.
There are so many great and well-managed companies in Mexico, IMO Televisa is not one of them.

After conducting interviews within the digital media in Mexico DF, my impression is that there are still bad apples and bad practices within Televisaís leadership.

In addition, itís publicly documented that Televisa was involved in a bribery scheme to obtain broadcasting rights for FIFA World Cup soccer matches.

The business ethics at Televisa doesnít seem right to me.
But, some investors can find it's stock price attractive and still make money trading it.

Disclosure: I have no position in TV, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hrs. I believe to have reliable sources.

Your input is much appreciated. In any case, I like the cable side better and will invest Megacable going forward.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

DanielGMask

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Re: TV - Grupo Televisa
« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2019, 03:21:47 PM »
I am pretty sure that the leadership of TV is somewhat corrupt. These guys are part of the Elite around Pemex, Carlos Slim and the like that have the politicians in their pocket. I kind of like the New Mexican president and yes he has a socialist background, but seems pragmatic sonnst, but runs a coalitions with the right too and seems to try to dismantle the crusty elite that had been sucking out blood too long. Too early to tell, but I am somewhat optimistic.

I do know that TV missed earnings because the government reduced advertising. I am not even sure why the government should spent that much on advertising on TV and I think itís a the right move to just get rid of it. I also would appreciate if the government would step up pressure on TV to break up, as I think this might unlock a lot of value.

Anything that sheds light into TV Management is appreciated. I keep warnings in mind,and control risk with position size. Do far itís a small bet for me, but I like the odds.

Slim is not related to Televisa, he's actually a direct competitor!

I live in Mexico and I can tell that the president in charge doesn't like business tycoons (no matter the integrity or acumen of the individual) nor big companies. He is against big money and specially against big money that benefited from special treatment from previous governments. Televisa is certainly one of those.
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Devils_Shadow

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Re: TV - Grupo Televisa
« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2019, 12:20:20 PM »
The current EV is about US$ 10Bn. That could be justified with just the royalties (US$384m royalties received from Univision in 2018, capitalised at 7-8%) and the Cable asset (US$1.9Bn in revenues, growing double digits which could be valued at 2x EV/revenues).

Everything else is basically free. That includes a content business which generates nearly US$2 Bn in revenues, a DTH business where they have a 58.7% stake and which generates US$1Bn+ in revenues, a 10%+26%=36% effective stake in Univision which did US$2.8Bn in revenues in 2018 (EBITDA US$1.02Bn) and a plethora of other smaller assets.

Whatever the misgivings one may have about corporate governance or currently depressed core earnings, the margin of safety here is huge.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2019, 02:44:04 PM by Devils_Shadow »

Broeb22

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Re: TV - Grupo Televisa
« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2019, 02:21:29 PM »
The royalties expire at some point mid-next decade, so your capitalization at 7-8% seems appropriate given this cash flow will go away. I would hesitate to capitalize it at a higher rate, unless I'm somehow mistaken.

Devils_Shadow

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Re: TV - Grupo Televisa
« Reply #17 on: May 14, 2019, 10:40:29 AM »
The royalties expire at some point mid-next decade, so your capitalization at 7-8% seems appropriate given this cash flow will go away. I would hesitate to capitalize it at a higher rate, unless I'm somehow mistaken.

The renegotiated PLA related to the royalties doesn't expire until atleast 2030. In addition, Televisa has been getting these royalties since the 1990s so the odds are fair that they may be renegotiated well into the 2030s/2040s since most of Univision's primetime lineup still relies on Televisa's content. If you impute some growth to the current royalty stream (Hispanic audience is among the faster demographics) and use a reasonable discount rate, you get a very significant value for them (about half the current EV).

rogermunibond

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Re: TV - Grupo Televisa
« Reply #18 on: May 24, 2019, 10:41:35 AM »
There's a fairly good number of value investor types now invested in TV.  Dodge & Cox, Capital Research, Harris, and FPR.  Given that AzcŠrraga owns 40% of the A shares, they must be fairly comfortable with the lack of say in company mgmt.

What's the bull case for Grupo Televisa?

rogermunibond

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Re: TV - Grupo Televisa
« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2019, 08:14:31 AM »
So are people liking Televisa more here at $7.80 per share than in May?  2Q earnings were worse than expected.

Or as Spek mentioned just bet on Megacable instead.