Author Topic: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks  (Read 42028 times)

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #30 on: September 21, 2017, 12:10:15 AM »
Is this an example of bad optics obscuring good judgement?

I saw his Tweet about BRK only having 20 employees & it created the impression (in my mind) that this guy couldn't possibly be a good capital allocator (the cash piling up kinda agrees.)

I don't really understand the biz but thanks RKB 4 the anecdotal (it helps...)

Probably won't do anything but it's fun to look at!

The vast majority of their cash is overseas so "cash piling up" isn't a fair critique of Pera's capital allocation abilities. That said, Pera's inability to spell Warren Buffett's name correctly doesn't bode well for the next spelling bee he enters.   

If you want to learn about the business there are many good articles on Seeking Alpha that discuss the company's products and general strategy.
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Foreign Tuffett

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #31 on: September 21, 2017, 12:20:44 AM »
Unconcerned, none of the "evidence" seemed like anything more than silly conspiracy theory stuff.

Robert Pera's actions speak louder, share buybacks, low salary, all of this reflects very well on his long term belief in this companies future.

I agree. Pera's actions have been very different than what one would expect if UBNT was engaged in material and longstanding fraud. Pera hasn't taken any material compensation since 2013, he is extremely parsimonious with stock based comp, and has also been aggressive about repurchasing shares whenever the stock drops significantly. The recent stock sale notwithstanding, he has also sold far less shares than would be expected for a CEO engineering a fraud. Contra Left, almost every indication is that Pera thinks the stock is quite valuable. 
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plusalpha

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #32 on: September 22, 2017, 01:04:16 PM »
Contrary to the title, many good things about Ubiquiti.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4108704-ubiquiti-time-run
not an indepth article but good comments to go thru.
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Dustin T

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #33 on: September 22, 2017, 01:13:29 PM »
Unconcerned, none of the "evidence" seemed like anything more than silly conspiracy theory stuff.

Robert Pera's actions speak louder, share buybacks, low salary, all of this reflects very well on his long term belief in this companies future.

I agree. Pera's actions have been very different than what one would expect if UBNT was engaged in material and longstanding fraud. Pera hasn't taken any material compensation since 2013, he is extremely parsimonious with stock based comp, and has also been aggressive about repurchasing shares whenever the stock drops significantly. The recent stock sale notwithstanding, he has also sold far less shares than would be expected for a CEO engineering a fraud. Contra Left, almost every indication is that Pera thinks the stock is quite valuable.

Exactly, if Robert Pera were smart enough to pull of that kind of fraud, it's unlikely he would be dumb enough to hide his ill gotten cash in the Memphis Grizzlies.

I've actually enjoyed watching the short and distort crowd attack UBNT. Every day they post a new article, but nothing of substance, just cryptozoology level stuff.
"If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored." -Peter Lynch

gjangal

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #34 on: November 09, 2017, 07:22:33 AM »
Q1 results out

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/ubiquiti_networks_inc/usn/usnews-story.aspx?cid=2283&newsid=49695

Revs growing at 20%. Forecast revenue growth 15%. Enterprise segment  around  50% of revenue and growing at 50%

40-50% of float short for this company sound a unreasonable to me

rkbabang

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #35 on: November 09, 2017, 08:01:42 AM »
I don't believe UBNT's numbers. I'm not even convinced that all of the reported cash exists.

If this belief is common that would explain the large amount of shorts. 

What is the basis for you thinking that this company is a fraud?   I know first hand that the products are real and work as advertized.


Dustin T

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #36 on: November 09, 2017, 08:21:44 AM »
I don't believe UBNT's numbers. I'm not even convinced that all of the reported cash exists.

I believe cash is the hardest thing to falsify both to the auditors and the bankers who have lent them money. Both the auditors and the bankers involved are large and well known, I think the cash is almost certainly real. It would take incompetence or criminal complicity on the part of to many individuals for that story to be likely.
"If you're prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won't get bored." -Peter Lynch

Value^2

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #37 on: November 09, 2017, 08:57:33 AM »
They have higher operating margins than Apple, while they sell low priced bulk products in industry which suffer from overcapacity. Sounds reasonable? Only Chinese reverse-mergers have better margins than UBNT.
 

Jerry Capital

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #38 on: November 09, 2017, 09:13:03 AM »
This is not good.

"Ubiquiti Community

As a result of a reporting error, the previously furnished Prior Investor Presentations and the investor presentation used by Company management dated as of May 2017 referenced 4 million registered users in the Ubiquiti Community, and the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2017 reported that the Ubiquiti Community included over 4 million entrepreneurial operators and systems integrators. In actuality, as of December 31, 2016, the Ubiquiti Community included approximately 609,000 registered users, while there were approximately 4 million registered user sessions at https://community.ubnt.com during the calendar year ended December 31, 2016. The information on https://community.ubnt.com is not part of this Current Report on Form 8-K."
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Foreign Tuffett

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #39 on: November 09, 2017, 01:26:29 PM »
Speaking of buybacks, if you look at UBNT's cash flow statements, the company has repurchased more stock then excess cash generated, when considering the change in US cash balances. The company's Amended Credit Agreement is co-signed by the US and Cayman Islands subs and allows for unrestricted borrowing and repayment by either sub. However, the US uses a worldwide tax system and the credit agreement is invalid if UBNT is not fully compliant with all tax laws.

If all of the cash was rightfully generated in the US (as you'd hope) then it would appear as if there could be a gap in international cash generation and the cash balance reported. I want to be careful in my wording because I have not had a chance to speak to UBNT yet.

There has been instances in the past of balance confirmation issues (some very large):
https://www.accountingweb.com/aa/auditing/audit-fraud-the-confirmation-angle
https://attestationupdate.com/2013/08/05/3-bank-confirmation-frauds/

Would you be able to break down your math that leads you to these conclusions?
Former Teldar Paper Vice President