Author Topic: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks  (Read 42487 times)

Grant

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #90 on: March 10, 2018, 07:25:01 AM »
I really appreciate the stats but your Wells Notice sample includes a large portion of pre-GFC subpoenas that faded during the crisis. I suspect that specific 5y period is quite the outlier. Especially with the current enforcement regime (which I commend, this far).

Between 2003 and 2007 (post-Sarbox) there were 4,520 investigations initiated by the SEC. In this same time period there were 114 Wells Notices issued. Yes it'd be nice to have more recent data, but these numbers suggest nothing will come of this.

Also, the average length of time between disclosure of a formal investigation and a Wells Notice was slightly longer than a year. Moveover, the SEC likely has its hands full with a smorgasbord of crypto-scams. This is one reason why I say UBNT is a terrible short here.

If someone had of posted they shorted at $80+ I would not have objected. I got out of all my UBNT long positions in Jan.

Buying back stock with borrowed money is easy for desperate folks. Not saying it must be so, but UBNT should be repatriating funds at their first chance. Let's see if they do.

If they don't repatriate a lot of their cash and I see a plausible explanation of how UBNT could be fooling auditors and bankers, I'll sell my calls. Otherwise I plan to hold them at least until we see how well LTU and uFiber Gen 2 is selling.

That's illegal, but par for the course.

I can't speak to the legality of it, but I was glad to get decent guidance regardless of the motivation. "Analyst" guidance has always been crap, especially for longer time periods. I think their low-end guidance being no new product line successes was fairly accurate, but obviously the FrontRow debacle threw a wrench into this. We could still hit the low-end targets though.

Like for example: selling +$61million UBNT stock @ lower prices than it trades today.

Yes. He sold at an ATH. I can't blame the guy for wanting to diversify (insider buys are more predictive than insider sells for reasons like this). At the time no one knew the Citron squeeze was coming.


Grant

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #91 on: March 22, 2018, 01:22:20 PM »
Evidently UBNT has hired a team of wireless engineers from Ruckus: https://wirednot-wordpress-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/wirednot.wordpress.com/2018/03/07/ubiquiti-gets-serious-about-hospitality-market/amp/

Having used and liked Ruckus products in the past, I think this could be great news. It reminds me of Pera poaching the AirFiber team from Motorola. The problem with Ruckus gear was always its cost, so if their talent can be combined with UBNT's cost structure, great things could be done.

gjangal

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #92 on: May 10, 2018, 05:55:07 AM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubiquiti-networks-reports-third-quarter-123000032.html

The most important thing i was looking for was the repatriation of cash. That sends the best signal to shorts

Let’s see what the market says

chrispy

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #93 on: May 10, 2018, 06:04:39 AM »
The overseas cash was the only significant question I had... Very impressive numbers.

Foreign Tuffett

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #94 on: May 10, 2018, 07:01:44 AM »
The overseas cash was the only significant question I had... Very impressive numbers.

I actually didn't think they were that good. Revenue growth is getting more-and-more difficult to come by. This is the first quarter since at least early 2016 where revenue didn't grow Q/Q. The Service Provider segment, which I think is the "moat-ier" part of their business, isn't growing at all, and may even be shrinking.

Of course, bulls can point to aspects of the short case that have been debunked: The cash is real! The Grizzlies ownership situation has been resolved!
Former Teldar Paper Vice President

chrispy

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #95 on: May 10, 2018, 07:15:42 AM »
I wasn't comfortable with holding and sold out but am cheering Pera on. The Enterprise numbers have increased

Schwab711

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #96 on: May 10, 2018, 07:23:50 AM »
Very impressive that they repatriated. I was clearly wrong in that regard. I'm not sure I can add much else at the moment. Congrats to the longs!

gjangal

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #97 on: May 10, 2018, 07:39:39 AM »
i do appreciate the comments everyone made on this thread.

My whole thesis was only one point that this was a real business with real cash in the bank. Such a business doesn’t warrant 40% of float to be short. I m still HODL ing as i think the shorts will be forced to buyback. At lower prices this was undervalued but not so much anymore

Brokers were ready to offer a lending rate of 14% to holders of this stock . Wonder what rate they lent to short sellers

Grant

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #98 on: May 10, 2018, 07:47:52 AM »
I actually didn't think they were that good. Revenue growth is getting more-and-more difficult to come by. This is the first quarter since at least early 2016 where revenue didn't grow Q/Q. The Service Provider segment, which I think is the "moat-ier" part of their business, isn't growing at all, and may even be shrinking.

I don't think it actually shrunk. All my indicators say demand for AirMax AC 2 is increasing. UBNT revenues are based on shipments and can sometimes be lumpy. It's also possible WISPs are deferring purchases until LTU PtMP is available.

That said, a collapse of the Service Provider segment is my worst fear with UBNT. 5 GHz gear faces increasing competition from 60 GHz and LTE technology, neither of which are offered by UBNT. It's quite possible AirMax revenues will head towards zero over the next 5-10 years. Hopefully uFiber and LTU will succeed.

Of course, bulls can point to aspects of the short case that have been debunked: The cash is real! The Grizzlies ownership situation has been resolved!

Yup, for those who missed it:

Quote from: 8-K
On May 8, 2018, the Nominating and Governance Committee of the Board determined in accordance with the Company’s Insider Trading Policy and Guidelines with Respect to Certain Transactions in Securities that Mr. Robert Pera be permitted to pledge up to 28% of the shares of the Company’s common stock that he beneficially owns to secure one or more loans with financial institutions, provided that the principal amount outstanding under all such loans would be significantly less than the value of the pledged shares under such loans. See Item 1A, Risk Factors in Part II of the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2018 for additional information on these loans.

I'm very bullish in the short term because of the huge short interest. Without the fraud thesis or Pera selling to buy the Grizzlies, there's no reason to keep paying 27% borrow fees on this stock.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2018, 07:50:48 AM by Grant »

Grant

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #99 on: July 30, 2018, 08:43:58 PM »
Looks like Facebook is dragging lots of tech down. I'm glad I got out last week: https://twitter.com/glbeaty/status/1021502228111261696