Author Topic: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks  (Read 48395 times)

chrispy

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #90 on: May 10, 2018, 06:04:39 AM »
The overseas cash was the only significant question I had... Very impressive numbers.


Foreign Tuffett

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #91 on: May 10, 2018, 07:01:44 AM »
The overseas cash was the only significant question I had... Very impressive numbers.

I actually didn't think they were that good. Revenue growth is getting more-and-more difficult to come by. This is the first quarter since at least early 2016 where revenue didn't grow Q/Q. The Service Provider segment, which I think is the "moat-ier" part of their business, isn't growing at all, and may even be shrinking.

Of course, bulls can point to aspects of the short case that have been debunked: The cash is real! The Grizzlies ownership situation has been resolved!
Former Teldar Paper Vice President

chrispy

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #92 on: May 10, 2018, 07:15:42 AM »
I wasn't comfortable with holding and sold out but am cheering Pera on. The Enterprise numbers have increased

Schwab711

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #93 on: May 10, 2018, 07:23:50 AM »
Very impressive that they repatriated. I was clearly wrong in that regard. I'm not sure I can add much else at the moment. Congrats to the longs!

gjangal

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #94 on: May 10, 2018, 07:39:39 AM »
i do appreciate the comments everyone made on this thread.

My whole thesis was only one point that this was a real business with real cash in the bank. Such a business doesn’t warrant 40% of float to be short. I m still HODL ing as i think the shorts will be forced to buyback. At lower prices this was undervalued but not so much anymore

Brokers were ready to offer a lending rate of 14% to holders of this stock . Wonder what rate they lent to short sellers

Grant

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #95 on: May 10, 2018, 07:47:52 AM »
I actually didn't think they were that good. Revenue growth is getting more-and-more difficult to come by. This is the first quarter since at least early 2016 where revenue didn't grow Q/Q. The Service Provider segment, which I think is the "moat-ier" part of their business, isn't growing at all, and may even be shrinking.

I don't think it actually shrunk. All my indicators say demand for AirMax AC 2 is increasing. UBNT revenues are based on shipments and can sometimes be lumpy. It's also possible WISPs are deferring purchases until LTU PtMP is available.

That said, a collapse of the Service Provider segment is my worst fear with UBNT. 5 GHz gear faces increasing competition from 60 GHz and LTE technology, neither of which are offered by UBNT. It's quite possible AirMax revenues will head towards zero over the next 5-10 years. Hopefully uFiber and LTU will succeed.

Of course, bulls can point to aspects of the short case that have been debunked: The cash is real! The Grizzlies ownership situation has been resolved!

Yup, for those who missed it:

Quote from: 8-K
On May 8, 2018, the Nominating and Governance Committee of the Board determined in accordance with the Company’s Insider Trading Policy and Guidelines with Respect to Certain Transactions in Securities that Mr. Robert Pera be permitted to pledge up to 28% of the shares of the Company’s common stock that he beneficially owns to secure one or more loans with financial institutions, provided that the principal amount outstanding under all such loans would be significantly less than the value of the pledged shares under such loans. See Item 1A, Risk Factors in Part II of the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2018 for additional information on these loans.

I'm very bullish in the short term because of the huge short interest. Without the fraud thesis or Pera selling to buy the Grizzlies, there's no reason to keep paying 27% borrow fees on this stock.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2018, 07:50:48 AM by Grant »

Grant

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #96 on: July 30, 2018, 08:43:58 PM »
Looks like Facebook is dragging lots of tech down. I'm glad I got out last week: https://twitter.com/glbeaty/status/1021502228111261696

gjangal

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #97 on: August 24, 2018, 04:43:10 AM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubiquiti-networks-reports-fourth-quarter-113600656.html

Regular dividend of 0.25 a share announced.

Revenue growth 18% YOY

Schwab711

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #98 on: August 24, 2018, 07:26:32 AM »
Boy, was I wrong here. The results look strong, the new credit agreement makes more sense, and the dividend was a smart move. I would hope they get hit with a fine on Reg FD violations but it's not going to effect operations.

This article almost certainly refers to UBNT, in case anyone was wondering why I was so negative:
https://www.pogo.org/investigation/2018/05/pwc-whistleblower-alleges-fraud-in-audits-of-silicon-valley-companies

Quote
First, its controller was duped by an email phishing scam. The controller wired money as directed by a phony email despite the fact that company policy required two signatures for such wire transfers—and despite the fact that the party the controller paid wasn’t on the company’s vendor list.

Second, the company neglected to disclose to the auditors its close relationship with a business “entity” that shared its address and performed research and development at its direction. The entity was not included in the company’s financial statements until auditors raised the issue, he wrote. (Keeping the entity off the company’s books would have reduced the company’s reported expenses, Botta explained to POGO.)

Third, as Botta reported, the company apparently failed to notice that, when it sold a shipment of products, the buyer had a contractual right to return thousands of them. (That could affect the company’s ability to record revenue from the sale, Botta clarified for POGO.)

Botta told the SEC that he proposed stating in PwC’s audit report that the company had “a material weakness” in “the skill and competence of the finance department.” Botta wrote that, in response, he “was put under significant pressure” by superiors at PwC and was told that if he pursued that path, it was unlikely he would be promoted to partner.

Grant

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Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networks
« Reply #99 on: August 25, 2018, 10:46:00 PM »
Schwab711, I read the complaint the article refers to a few months ago. If I recall correctly, two of the four anonymous companies cited could've been Ubiquiti, but it wasn't clear either was. I hope the SEC does find something, that'll give me (and Pera's buybacks) another entry point. I haven't had a position since I sold my calls in July.

It seems like tariffs are the next major catalyst. Unfortunately they're something I'm completely unfamiliar with.