Author Topic: VIACA, VIAC - ViacomCBS  (Read 4378 times)

CorpRaider

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VIACA, VIAC - ViacomCBS
« on: December 11, 2019, 03:55:53 PM »
We had some discussions about Viacom last year.  I ended up saying "too hard."  Deal has closed now.  I bought a 'lil bit (as a reminder, I am a small-time, retail schmuck) and rekindled discussions in another thread.  Here is the discussion:

VIAC, where no money has gone before.

What are your thoughts here?

Basically the same thing as set forth here:  http://yetanothervalueblog.com/

(including concerns about controlling shareholder...)  But I like the funnel in for content with Simon and Shuster and the "selling of the picks and shovels to the miners" kind of strategy for streaming wars (maybe even the cost-plus producing shows they don't own isn't anathema...it works ok for defense contractors); also the single product licensing function for the company seems like a great move; they have historically totally blown it with Star Trek (as compared with Wars) imop.  It's obviously cheap AF, even before any "synergies" (assuming they are soon to be destroyed).  Seems like there's maybe a catalyst with Bakish talking about re-upping their buyback authorization.  I also kind of like Bakish (having watched maybe ten interviews with him) he doesn't seem like a smooth bullshitter, Hollywood ceo.

Thanks, you bring up good points - I was surprised John Malone was so negative on both the "arms dealer" strategy with content (which has worked well for the record labels when it comes to streaming) and the cost-plus arrangements (especially where rights revert back after an initial period), as well your point on product licensing is an interesting one that I haven't seen discussed much elsewhere.

Yeah, I am with you.  I took note of his comments, but the more I think about it: a) he probably has a conflict there (both from cutting CHTR/the bundle out of good stuff like the Jack Ryan series, but also probably when talking about "sub-scale" stuff...Discovery), b) I have bought (hook line and sinker), analysis saying that cost plus contracts (while horrible for cost control incentives with the gov't/buyer) are basically infinite leverage/returns with no capital commitment for the contractor...so maybe they aren't so horrible...especially with all this $$$ sloshing around.  I do agree with him that it would be better to retain some upside, but maybe after season 1 is a hit they get some leverage....or maybe they can get it back cheap when NFLX and Amazon are distressed selling to stave off Chapter 11 in 5 years (hah!).

I think maybe I picked up the product licensing angle from this guy I follow on twitter, who blogs about media stuff.  Edit: his name is Matthew Ball (Twitter: @ballmatthew).  He puts out interesting stuff.  His twitter profile says he is former head of strategy at amazonstudios and is now a VC.

Seems like both $DIS and $VIAC are kind of running his playbook, TBH.  He said that since the VIAB and CBS split, using the Trek IP was suboptimal/a nightmare.  Said JJ Abrams (reportedly) wanted to do the Trek reboot movie rather than the first of the new Disney (the good-ish one) Wars, but because of the mess they created they weren't able to give him the cut of back end of licensing revenues (or something like that) so he went and did the $DIS film.


« Last Edit: December 13, 2019, 10:39:41 AM by CorpRaider »


CorpRaider

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Re: VIACA, VIAC - ViacomCBS
« Reply #1 on: December 13, 2019, 10:38:52 AM »
BAC out with research report, $60 price target.  Analyst says: "We would like some I-banking fees, please."

CorpRaider

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Re: VIACA, VIAC - ViacomCBS
« Reply #2 on: December 23, 2019, 06:24:48 AM »
Looks like CBS is going to let SEC CFB package go to Disney/ESPN.  Not sure how I feel about that.  As an SEC guy, will be glad to get away from Gary Danielson. 

KJP

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Re: VIACA, VIAC - ViacomCBS
« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2019, 06:59:14 AM »
Looks like CBS is going to let SEC CFB package go to Disney/ESPN.  Not sure how I feel about that.  As an SEC guy, will be glad to get away from Gary Danielson.

Danielson really is hard to listen to, even though he's a massive SEC homer.

CorpRaider

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Re: VIACA, VIAC - ViacomCBS
« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2019, 08:09:23 AM »
*Alabama (and Tebow).  I miss Verne though; especially after he went blind.  "I'm not sure he got it (dude is 5 yards beyond the sticks."

But thinking a little bit more:  I suppose one might infer at least the potential for some evidence of rationality and/or capital discipline from this and the south park decision.  Even if they are stupid decisions, at least they are decisions (versus just following the path of least resistance/status quo). 
« Last Edit: December 23, 2019, 08:51:05 AM by CorpRaider »

NBL0303

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Re: VIACA, VIAC - ViacomCBS
« Reply #5 on: December 23, 2019, 08:21:46 AM »
Does anyone know the difference between VIA shares and VIAC shares - it seems like they are both still trading - are these different share classes for the combined Viacom CBS? If so, what are the differences between the share classes?

CorpRaider

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Re: VIACA, VIAC - ViacomCBS
« Reply #6 on: December 23, 2019, 08:52:14 AM »
I only see the viaca (class A super-voting shares) and VIAC (class B).

mjs111

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Re: VIACA, VIAC - ViacomCBS
« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2019, 09:18:38 AM »
VIA are the old Viacom shares. VIA shares are not trading at this point.

Mike


nickenumbers

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VIAC - ViacomCBS
« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2020, 08:02:58 AM »
It would seem to me that the highest probable outcome for VIAC is that it will be purchased some time in the future.  They are the light weight in a cage match with a series of competitors that are multiple times their size [some maybe 10x their size.]  VIAC knows what it is doing, and they have value, but I don't think they can be effective over the long run against their competitors.

High Potential acquirers- Amazon, Apple, Netflix

Less Potential- Comcast, MSFT, DIS, Sony, FB, Google, Verizon


1. Do you think that they will be acquired?
2. Do you think that they want to be acquired?
3. Are there any significant deal killers that would stop them from being acquired?  [Anti-Trust, or Redstone Flat-Butt Refuse, etc]

Any other thoughts?  Thank you.
The fastest Cheetah still waits for the lame baby antelope.  ..patience..

HalfMeasure

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Re: VIAC - ViacomCBS
« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2020, 08:50:20 AM »
It would seem to me that the highest probable outcome for VIAC is that it will be purchased some time in the future.  They are the light weight in a cage match with a series of competitors that are multiple times their size [some maybe 10x their size.]  VIAC knows what it is doing, and they have value, but I don't think they can be effective over the long run against their competitors.

High Potential acquirers- Amazon, Apple, Netflix

Less Potential- Comcast, MSFT, DIS, Sony, FB, Google, Verizon


1. Do you think that they will be acquired?
2. Do you think that they want to be acquired?
3. Are there any significant deal killers that would stop them from being acquired?  [Anti-Trust, or Redstone Flat-Butt Refuse, etc]

Any other thoughts?  Thank you.

Agree with the consolidation angle and I don't think it's unique to VIAC. Streaming is becoming table stakes in terms of distribution mechanism, so my view is the entire content side of the business will continue to consolidate because the differentiating factor will be quality/volume of content on each platform. Would be curious to hear more details on your thoughts on why you bucket each name in the high vs. low potential acquirer buckets.