Author Topic: VIAB - Viacom  (Read 41448 times)

LowIQinvestor

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #20 on: November 19, 2014, 12:52:02 PM »
10-K is out:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/VIA-B/3630101506x0xS1339947-14-50/1339947/filing.pdf

Definitely a serial cannibal:
610 M shares outstanding in 2010
414 M shares outstanding.today




LowIQinvestor

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2014, 08:10:31 AM »
Time Warner CEO Teases Idea of CBS, Viacom Tie-Ups
'I Know Something About It, but I Don't Want to Talk About It'

http://adage.com/article/media/time-warner-ceo-teases-idea-cbs-viacom-tie-ups/296192/

Phaceliacapital

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Re: Viacom (VIAB)
« Reply #22 on: December 18, 2014, 08:25:30 AM »
Thank you for looking into the share repurchases. I agree that CBS is also an interesting investment candidate. If you do start a thread on CBS, I will be an eager follower. 

Media companies are losing pricing power for their content, and Viacom is no exception.. but at some point the content companies will have to respond to the merging distribution companies. So the playing field will be very active on both the distribution side and the content side. It looks like distributors will continue to be first to gain scale however, and in this environment, the sustainable free cash flow of content co's may be illusory, to some degree. I wonder if there is a good parallel in the 80's or 90's to this situation, and what happened there.

Media is a really good industry overall, and I think one could do quite well just to focus on this area. According to EY, Media is projected to have aggregate profitability of 28% for full year 2014, which beats out most indices.

Hence the Fox/Time Warner proposal (although I think Rupert mostly wanted HBO). That being said, consolidation on the right side is not the best of news, but it puts the emphasis again on having strong content (and imo, mainly news and sports) where Fox & TW outshine their peers.

To be honest, I don't get why CBS was spun from Viacom in the first place. It's funny that articles concerning the event (I was still in highschool playing videogames at that time) mention that "Last June, Viacom VIA disclosed plans to divide the assets to allow investors to track its faster-growing movie and advertising-supported cable units from the slower-growth broadcasting and publishing operations.".

Given the share price and business performance of the two, I would much rather have "tracked" the slower CBS activities..

I am staying away from Viacom for several reasons. a. Content does not seem that strong, b. large dependency on advertising revenues. Which if you combine it with a. is even worse because if cable operators are dropping your content, you're going to have a hell of a hard time of convincing ad agencies to spend their precious dollars with your "strong" content.

The harder you work, the luckier you get.

RadMan24

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Re: Viacom (VIAB)
« Reply #23 on: December 21, 2014, 11:18:58 AM »
Thank you for looking into the share repurchases. I agree that CBS is also an interesting investment candidate. If you do start a thread on CBS, I will be an eager follower. 

Media companies are losing pricing power for their content, and Viacom is no exception.. but at some point the content companies will have to respond to the merging distribution companies. So the playing field will be very active on both the distribution side and the content side. It looks like distributors will continue to be first to gain scale however, and in this environment, the sustainable free cash flow of content co's may be illusory, to some degree. I wonder if there is a good parallel in the 80's or 90's to this situation, and what happened there.

Media is a really good industry overall, and I think one could do quite well just to focus on this area. According to EY, Media is projected to have aggregate profitability of 28% for full year 2014, which beats out most indices.

Hence the Fox/Time Warner proposal (although I think Rupert mostly wanted HBO). That being said, consolidation on the right side is not the best of news, but it puts the emphasis again on having strong content (and imo, mainly news and sports) where Fox & TW outshine their peers.

To be honest, I don't get why CBS was spun from Viacom in the first place. It's funny that articles concerning the event (I was still in highschool playing videogames at that time) mention that "Last June, Viacom VIA disclosed plans to divide the assets to allow investors to track its faster-growing movie and advertising-supported cable units from the slower-growth broadcasting and publishing operations.".

Given the share price and business performance of the two, I would much rather have "tracked" the slower CBS activities..

I am staying away from Viacom for several reasons. a. Content does not seem that strong, b. large dependency on advertising revenues. Which if you combine it with a. is even worse because if cable operators are dropping your content, you're going to have a hell of a hard time of convincing ad agencies to spend their precious dollars with your "strong" content.

Content seems to be strong, for instance, comedy central is expanding its distribution to other avenues, including its own website and has a strong following in the 15-30 age group.  You can view these channels on mobile devices and take it with you on the go.  Having CBS would slow this initiative down and attempt to control how services are distributed and be more exposed to advertising revenue through standard distribution methods.  I understand some investors think CBS should combine with Viacom, but Viacom also has a door open to expand its distribution avenues and even advertising revenues.  Being a serial cannibal of its own stock also may not be recognized how valuable this can be in the future.  They already took out 200million shares in 4 years.  Even if advertising revenue declines, it can drop $200 m in earnings and still have no affect on the EPS.  Sure the market and perception may change, but we all know earnings can fluctuate and can be cyclical.  Thus, its a little self-fulfilling the company can control how fast and much the denominator in shares outstanding can decrease.

Phaceliacapital

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Re: Viacom (VIAB)
« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2015, 11:26:44 AM »
Content seems to be strong, for instance, comedy central is expanding its distribution to other avenues, including its own website and has a strong following in the 15-30 age group.  You can view these channels on mobile devices and take it with you on the go.  Having CBS would slow this initiative down and attempt to control how services are distributed and be more exposed to advertising revenue through standard distribution methods.  I understand some investors think CBS should combine with Viacom, but Viacom also has a door open to expand its distribution avenues and even advertising revenues.  Being a serial cannibal of its own stock also may not be recognized how valuable this can be in the future.  They already took out 200million shares in 4 years.  Even if advertising revenue declines, it can drop $200 m in earnings and still have no affect on the EPS.  Sure the market and perception may change, but we all know earnings can fluctuate and can be cyclical.  Thus, its a little self-fulfilling the company can control how fast and much the denominator in shares outstanding can decrease.

Forgive me for asking, but why would a viacom/CBS merger slow down the distribution initiative? Isn't FOX operating a "viacom/CBS" model with its cable operations and tv stations? And you're right that advertising drop wouldn't have an impact on EPS, but should it happen I am more worried about why advertising revenues have dropped by such an amount rather than the impact it had on EPS.

Could you elaborate on the distribution avenues? Would be greatly appreciated!

and sorry for the late response but completely overlooked this topic!
The harder you work, the luckier you get.

LowIQinvestor

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #25 on: January 06, 2015, 10:39:21 AM »
VIAB at   12 PE (2015 EPS)
DISCA at 18 PE
CBS at     17 PE

time to buy more

LowIQinvestor

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #26 on: January 14, 2015, 10:36:18 AM »
Wow, Citi downgrade really knocked this down!

They site the potential for DISH to drop Viacom and only 10% chance Viacom is acquired.

Very baffling downgrade.

dwy000

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #27 on: January 14, 2015, 11:31:47 AM »
Wow, Citi downgrade really knocked this down!

They site the potential for DISH to drop Viacom and only 10% chance Viacom is acquired.

Very baffling downgrade.

Dish seems all over the place.  They get into a battle with CBS that pulls the channels for a while.  They drop FOX - still off the air.  Now they may drop Viacom? And on top of that they start up this Sling TV OTT service.  Low priced, minimal content for people who already have a separate internet connection.  That strikes at the heart of Dish's customer base.

merkhet

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #28 on: January 14, 2015, 12:05:56 PM »
Ergen is crazy like a fox.

LowIQinvestor

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #29 on: January 14, 2015, 12:13:34 PM »
Whoops :)

"Viacom's (VIAB) carriage deal with DISH is not up for renewal in 2015, says a company spokesman. Citi--which downgraded VIAB to sell from buy this morning while putting a 50% probability on DISH dropping VIAB offerings like MTV, Nickelodeon and Comedy Central--said the carriage renewal was "likely slated for 2015."