Author Topic: VIAB - Viacom  (Read 41398 times)

LowIQinvestor

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #90 on: November 12, 2015, 06:46:47 AM »


LowIQinvestor

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #91 on: November 12, 2015, 08:09:00 AM »
Sorry, last message was cut off:

VIAB can do close to $6 in EPS in 2016. Up high single digits YOY.

Don't see why this can't trade for 10x 2016 EPS---- around $60. 17% upside in the near term.

Malone just hinted at cable/broadband/telco's being interested in the media content companies.

rishig

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #92 on: November 16, 2015, 08:04:23 AM »
Sorry, last message was cut off:

VIAB can do close to $6 in EPS in 2016. Up high single digits YOY.

Don't see why this can't trade for 10x 2016 EPS---- around $60. 17% upside in the near term.

Malone just hinted at cable/broadband/telco's being interested in the media content companies.

One thing I have learnt over the years is not to look at cheapness based on a single metric i.e. on P/E basis in this case. In terms of any EV metric, this is reasonably priced or may be slightly undervalued.

I had a very small position at $60 and then I averaged down to a relatively larger position relative to the initial size at $40. The easy money has been made. I sold out of my position at $52.

For upside from here out, Viacom needs to prove that its business model in the US is sustainable. MTV seems like a lost cause. It is being disrupted by short form videos on Youtube, Facebook, Snapchat (and whatever else teens spend their time on). The growth in affiliate fees cannot continue unless ratings go up at Nickelodeon and Comedy Central. So at best, Viacom executes and this is worth 10-12x P/E of $6. So, at best, it is worth $72. 40% upside from here in best case over who knows what time frame.

Lots of bad things can happen too - ratings slide, slowdown in affiliate fee growth due to loss in leverage at negotiations, ad revenue slide continuing etc. I don't see it a compelling buy at this point.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2015, 10:29:03 AM by rishig »

LowIQinvestor

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LowIQinvestor

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #94 on: December 03, 2015, 06:34:44 AM »

LowIQinvestor

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #95 on: December 04, 2015, 06:06:15 AM »
Things are heating up- shareholders have had enough!

Viacom should end non-voting stock, give vote to all investors - California fund

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-viacom-investors-exclusive-idUSKBN0TM2PK20151204

fareastwarriors

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #96 on: November 09, 2016, 03:12:42 PM »
Viacom Profit Falls as Its Networks, Movies Slump

Profit plunged 71% in latest quarter; no new word on a merger

http://www.wsj.com/articles/viacom-profit-falls-amid-soft-network-box-office-performance-1478695191

nickenumbers

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #97 on: April 30, 2018, 07:53:46 AM »
I have been thinking about Viacom a little bit.  The PE, and PEG seem relatively reasonable.  Rev and Net Income are fairly stable.  They have a decent brand and they know what they are doing.  They are in a challenging market, and they are not a leader in it. 

Is there a case for upside on the stock price currently at $30.75?  I guess I am more in the minor interest/amused, but meh...

I can make stuff up, but I would like to hear if anyone out there has been thinking thru this one and if you have any ideas, conclusions, catalysts, angles, etc.
The fastest Cheetah still waits for the lame baby antelope.  ..patience..

CorpRaider

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #98 on: April 30, 2018, 02:04:09 PM »
Seems like the Redstones are about to fk around and run Moonves off.  I bet Iger could find a spot for him.  Too hard pile until all Redstones are dead and/or no longer in control for me.

bizaro86

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Re: VIAB - Viacom
« Reply #99 on: April 30, 2018, 03:44:02 PM »
As a DIS shareholder I respect Moonves, but am not sure the value add would be there given how much he would cost.