Author Topic: VNO - Vornado Realty Trust  (Read 42324 times)

fareastwarriors

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Re: VNO - Vornado Realty Trust
« Reply #220 on: August 30, 2020, 08:17:13 AM »
New York Post is a trashy tabloid newspaper, but it is the only newspaper that is reporting shootings, rapes, slashings, and other scary crimes. 

Stuff like this that happens in broad daylight is what really scares me.  Because somewhere a young woman is having a conversation with her parents about the safety of moving to NYC

https://nypost.com/2020/08/30/attempted-rape-on-nyc-subway-platform-thwarted/

If you own VNO or any other NYC related RE names, you need to pay attention to stuff like this.   

This is not a political post, this is a post from someone who is pragmatic.   If moms are worried about homeless people masturbating in front of their kids or people are afraid of getting slashed or you have to walk through druggies shooting up, the appeal of living in NYC is gone

I looked at the NYC crime states and everything except shootings  (which are up substantially) is down YoY and far below levels from way back. I agree the shootings are a concern, but the historical, perspective seems to indicate that this surge in crime is exaggerated way out of proportion.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf

I agree historical perspective is important, but the relevant history for NYCers is to compare Giuliani and Bloomberg terms with deblasio terms, and that comparison leads many NYCers to conclude that the city has become much more oppressive (and dangerous) to live in...not just crime, but also homelessness, which is far more visible than crime...and unless you want to see some guy taking a dump while you are out going to the supermarket , you are not a fan of homelessness. one factoid most people don't appreciate is that deblasio made nonpayment of violations a civil offense (formerly criminal), which means that the guy who just got ticketed for taking a dump on Broadway while you are out going to Zabars never faces any incentive to avoid taking another dump on Broadway.

We see this on the daily here in SF.


BG2008

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Re: VNO - Vornado Realty Trust
« Reply #221 on: August 30, 2020, 09:46:30 AM »
New York Post is a trashy tabloid newspaper, but it is the only newspaper that is reporting shootings, rapes, slashings, and other scary crimes. 

Stuff like this that happens in broad daylight is what really scares me.  Because somewhere a young woman is having a conversation with her parents about the safety of moving to NYC

https://nypost.com/2020/08/30/attempted-rape-on-nyc-subway-platform-thwarted/

If you own VNO or any other NYC related RE names, you need to pay attention to stuff like this.   

This is not a political post, this is a post from someone who is pragmatic.   If moms are worried about homeless people masturbating in front of their kids or people are afraid of getting slashed or you have to walk through druggies shooting up, the appeal of living in NYC is gone

I looked at the NYC crime states and everything except shootings  (which are up substantially) is down YoY and far below levels from way back. I agree the shootings are a concern, but the historical, perspective seems to indicate that this surge in crime is exaggerated way out of proportion.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf

I agree historical perspective is important, but the relevant history for NYCers is to compare Giuliani and Bloomberg terms with deblasio terms, and that comparison leads many NYCers to conclude that the city has become much more oppressive (and dangerous) to live in...not just crime, but also homelessness, which is far more visible than crime...and unless you want to see some guy taking a dump while you are out going to the supermarket , you are not a fan of homelessness. one factoid most people don't appreciate is that deblasio made nonpayment of violations a civil offense (formerly criminal), which means that the guy who just got ticketed for taking a dump on Broadway while you are out going to Zabars never faces any incentive to avoid taking another dump on Broadway.

We see this on the daily here in SF.

A politician can probably get quite a bit of votes running on "No more shit, literally!"

Mephistopheles

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Re: VNO - Vornado Realty Trust
« Reply #222 on: August 30, 2020, 09:50:20 AM »

We see this on the daily here in SF.

Ya, I visited SF for the first time last year and was appalled by all the homelessness and people shitting all over. I noticed the same thing in LA and in Philly. I'm from NYC, and never understood the appeal of these places. Ok I know LA and Philly are cheaper, but SF I believe is even more expensive than NYC. Why do people pay so much?

Castanza

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Re: VNO - Vornado Realty Trust
« Reply #223 on: August 30, 2020, 09:52:12 AM »

We see this on the daily here in SF.

Ya, I visited SF for the first time last year and was appalled by all the homelessness and people shitting all over. I noticed the same thing in LA and in Philly. I'm from NYC, and never understood the appeal of these places. Ok I know LA and Philly are cheaper, but SF I believe is even more expensive than NYC. Why do people pay so much?

LA made it illegal for police to move belongings of homeless individuals.
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fareastwarriors

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Re: VNO - Vornado Realty Trust
« Reply #224 on: August 30, 2020, 12:52:34 PM »
New York Post is a trashy tabloid newspaper, but it is the only newspaper that is reporting shootings, rapes, slashings, and other scary crimes. 

Stuff like this that happens in broad daylight is what really scares me.  Because somewhere a young woman is having a conversation with her parents about the safety of moving to NYC

https://nypost.com/2020/08/30/attempted-rape-on-nyc-subway-platform-thwarted/

If you own VNO or any other NYC related RE names, you need to pay attention to stuff like this.   

This is not a political post, this is a post from someone who is pragmatic.   If moms are worried about homeless people masturbating in front of their kids or people are afraid of getting slashed or you have to walk through druggies shooting up, the appeal of living in NYC is gone

I looked at the NYC crime states and everything except shootings  (which are up substantially) is down YoY and far below levels from way back. I agree the shootings are a concern, but the historical, perspective seems to indicate that this surge in crime is exaggerated way out of proportion.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf

I agree historical perspective is important, but the relevant history for NYCers is to compare Giuliani and Bloomberg terms with deblasio terms, and that comparison leads many NYCers to conclude that the city has become much more oppressive (and dangerous) to live in...not just crime, but also homelessness, which is far more visible than crime...and unless you want to see some guy taking a dump while you are out going to the supermarket , you are not a fan of homelessness. one factoid most people don't appreciate is that deblasio made nonpayment of violations a civil offense (formerly criminal), which means that the guy who just got ticketed for taking a dump on Broadway while you are out going to Zabars never faces any incentive to avoid taking another dump on Broadway.

We see this on the daily here in SF.

A politician can probably get quite a bit of votes running on "No more shit, literally!"

Nah, he/she would get run out of town with that platform.


Anyways, maybe we shouldn't crowd the VNO specific thread and move on the death of the urban office building thread.

https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/the-death-of-the-urban-office-building/100/
« Last Edit: August 30, 2020, 12:56:30 PM by fareastwarriors »

BG2008

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Re: VNO - Vornado Realty Trust
« Reply #225 on: August 30, 2020, 01:17:06 PM »
New York Post is a trashy tabloid newspaper, but it is the only newspaper that is reporting shootings, rapes, slashings, and other scary crimes. 

Stuff like this that happens in broad daylight is what really scares me.  Because somewhere a young woman is having a conversation with her parents about the safety of moving to NYC

https://nypost.com/2020/08/30/attempted-rape-on-nyc-subway-platform-thwarted/

If you own VNO or any other NYC related RE names, you need to pay attention to stuff like this.   

This is not a political post, this is a post from someone who is pragmatic.   If moms are worried about homeless people masturbating in front of their kids or people are afraid of getting slashed or you have to walk through druggies shooting up, the appeal of living in NYC is gone

I looked at the NYC crime states and everything except shootings  (which are up substantially) is down YoY and far below levels from way back. I agree the shootings are a concern, but the historical, perspective seems to indicate that this surge in crime is exaggerated way out of proportion.

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf

I agree historical perspective is important, but the relevant history for NYCers is to compare Giuliani and Bloomberg terms with deblasio terms, and that comparison leads many NYCers to conclude that the city has become much more oppressive (and dangerous) to live in...not just crime, but also homelessness, which is far more visible than crime...and unless you want to see some guy taking a dump while you are out going to the supermarket , you are not a fan of homelessness. one factoid most people don't appreciate is that deblasio made nonpayment of violations a civil offense (formerly criminal), which means that the guy who just got ticketed for taking a dump on Broadway while you are out going to Zabars never faces any incentive to avoid taking another dump on Broadway.

We see this on the daily here in SF.

A politician can probably get quite a bit of votes running on "No more shit, literally!"

Nah, he/she would get run out of town with that platform.


Anyways, maybe we shouldn't crowd the VNO specific thread and move on the death of the urban office building thread.

https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/the-death-of-the-urban-office-building/100/

I think this is fairly central to the VNO, ESRT, SLG thesis

thepupil

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Re: VNO - Vornado Realty Trust
« Reply #226 on: September 15, 2020, 12:51:07 PM »
https://streeteasy.com/building/220-central-park-south-new_york#tab_building_detail=2

220 CPS with a nice $60 million closing on the 19th, now getting reported.

I count $380mm+ of closings since Q2 end, should bring cash above $2B and liquidity past $4 billion.

based on a RealDealNY article out today indicating they sold another ~$60mm (their 6th $50mm+ of the Q), I think the number for post Q2, 220 CPS closings is $510mm now.

I don't think anyone sees risk to these closing anymore given how they've now accelerated, but it still gives me comfort every time I see gobs of cash going to VNO.

having 4 yards of liquidity certainly can't hurt.







thepupil

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Re: VNO - Vornado Realty Trust
« Reply #227 on: September 16, 2020, 06:04:52 PM »
Someone who listened to BofA event with VNO executives today let me know that VNO collected over 80% of retail rents in August.

Not bad.

EDIT: Transcript is out

Minimal roll over next two years
Quote
So well protected from near-term market fluctuations. I think over the next -- through '22 we've got about 10%, 11% on both the office and retail. So fairly minimal roll as we look out.

Fourth is, we think we have the largest and the best development opportunity and growth opportunity in the country with the Penn District. We are in the center of New York City with 10 million square feet, with the ability to expand that to 15 plus million square feet over time.

And as everything has improved to the West, to the South, we're now the hole in the donut on top of the biggest transit hub not only in the city but in the country, where there is significant government investment in that infrastructure and with further plans to improve and expand that. And we own all the real estate around it.

we feel very well positioned no matter what's going to happen here. We don't have a real large block in our lap right now to lease.

Penn District anchored by Facebook and Apple
Quote
So first piece is Farley with Facebook, you now have a district anchored if you think about it. On the east side with Apple, on the west side with Facebook in our district, and we are underway on the redevelopment of PENN1 and PENN2. So I couldn't think of a better landscape if we would have sat in our conference room, and we did, thinking about how we would like to have that district developed and who we would like to attract.

Confirms $500mm  of 220CPS proceeds, this q, but sadly only $200mm or so left this year.
Quote
The last thing I would say before we turn over to the market and so on is, we have always planned for to manage our balance sheet with one eye on looking to take advantage of opportunities, but importantly always being mindful of where we are in the cycle and positioning ourselves to be able to weather any storm. And we did that leading into this. We sit with cash as of the second quarter of a little bit more than $1.8 billion. We've got another $700 million plus coming in from 220 Central Park South, the remainder of this year, $500 million of which has already closed.

animal instincts. lol.
Quote
But I think as some comfort develops and as they see others doing it, and the animal instincts kick-in, those five private equity firms are like, Why aren't our guys in, those banks are in and why aren't we and so on.

on rents:
Quote
But Jamie, look, we'd all be kidding ourselves, net effect rents are going to be down near-term given all the factors that Glenn said. But to predict today what that's going to be, too early. But tenants, the lease space, they're demanding more concessions and so obviously that's going to impact on net effect.

AIV/AIMCO tracking stock discussion
Quote
Okay, thank you. And then AIMCOannounced their reverse spin this week, it seems like it was pretty well received by the market. I know you guys have been in simplification mode for many years now, including discussing a potential tracking stock. Thinking about what they've done and how the market reacted, how do you think about the potential to move forward for something like this for Vornado?

We're waiting to see if we get a royalty fee, Jamie. So, we are sort of intrigued in terms of how the market reacts. That was that was obviously an idea that Steve laid out in the Chairman's letter, given the different risk profiles of the business.

Retail:
Quote
Without people on the streets, in terms of office workers and particularly with tourism down to the trickle, it's very difficult for retailers to generate much in the way of sales. So their business is challenged and that colors your thinking. I think that there's a lot of lessons learned coming through this, and obviously there's many retailers that have thrived and then there's many that have struggled and some have failed and will fail.

Is it a robust leasing dynamic? Absolutely not. But there is some, obviously, we signed a lease with Target on the Upper East Side, that's a company that said this is a great time to get into some key locations in New York City and there's a couple of other large tenants like that are kicking the tires on a few things. So I think the strong balance sheets are looking at the markets saying, we're going to have an opportunity to pick up some great real estate at much more attractive prices. And even I would say, Madison Avenue where rents are down significantly, pricing is inducing a little bit of demand there.

Jamie, this is Joe. I'm just going to echo one factoid. We published in the second quarter that we collected 72% of our retail rent or 78%, including deferrals. That's stronger in July and August, principally because two major tenants with very strong balance sheets started to pay rent, and they were rewritten that hadn't been paid in Q2.

Q - Jamie Feldman
Thanks, Joe. So where does that take your number up to?

A - Joseph Macnow
First digit now is an 8 instead of a 7.


Q - Jamie Feldman
Okay, great. That's helped -- very helpful. And can you talk about how much you think rents are down for retail?

Obviously, Madison was down significantly from the peak beforehand as was Soho, Fifth Avenue was down some, Time Square probably down a little bit. But it's just too hard to -- there's no data points to tell you, I think this is where, I'd be guessing either way. The deal we did, we replaced Barnes & Noble with Target, it was probably down 10%, is that good for Vornado? No, I think the other markets where higher, they're obviously down more from peak to where we are today.

But to give you specific numbers, it's just -- it's just not doable right now

1290/555 recap
Quote
You know, we're in the middle of the sausage mix right now, Jamie. So I'm not going to comment too much on the process while we're in the middle of it. What I would say is that, the tone of capital markets has gotten better over the last couple months, financing markets, as I said at the outset, are clearly improving. And CMBS market is now back open. The bank market is improving, not as robust as CMBS market as the banks are still dealing with a lot of issues.

But deals can get financed and rates are very attractive. And so the CMBS quotes for example, these two are quite attractive. So the financing markets are improving and are good. The equity markets are, obviously, up from the spring and summer, hedging cost, foreign investors is down. So, all those are positive backdrops. There's obviously uncertainty over office and then the deals are large. So, it's going to take generally one or a couple of investors to get the deals done.

And so we got a number of different types of investors looking at both assets, really cutting across all types, sovereign, high net worth, pension funds, investment advisors, et cetera. So, working hard on both and nothing to report yet. As I've said, Steve said previously, could go a number of different directions, they're two assets and could have different executions on each and we'll just see. Investors are actively underwriting and if we have something to report we'll report, but nothing yet.

sales market in general: it's all about lease term
Quote
So, I think it's too early, Jamie. What I would say is that, a couple of things. One is that, I think real-estate, particularly given the financing markets, their yield and particularly in office is, I think, viewed attractively, typically when you have duration on the leases. So where there's a lot of near-term rollover vacancy, I think, there has probably been more of a pricing impact there and there haven't been a lot of those deals that have been out there.

There is one West Coast deal I'm aware of where there's a fair amount of leasing that has to get done that has gotten a fair number of bits. But I think that'll come in, hopefully 10% less or whatnot. But, that's sort of right thing, all that lease-up now. Whereas, asset that have good duration on leases, I don't know if there's really been any pricing impact. Maybe it's modest at most, but again, there this no rollover to deal with, the financing markets are better and so it appears that at least on a couple of situations the pricing would be I think as expected at those cap rates in the fore. So those are, as I said, give or take 8 or 12 years in two different cases.

So, I think that is the key, right, where there is long duration of leases or medium duration of leases, and get past this next 2 or 3 years, I think there's minimal to little pricing impact. Where there's more rollover or scale in terms of that rollover, I think there will be some pricing impact. But not enough transactions to really point to yet, and then retail even less, but I think that would be the order of the day generally where, again, if you have a duration I think there will be a market and not I think it'll be -- I think the pricing will be off quite a bit. And it's not inconceivable, you'll start to see maybe some users step in given the opportunity to control the real estate on some key streets for forever


« Last Edit: September 17, 2020, 03:55:42 AM by thepupil »

thepupil

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Re: VNO - Vornado Realty Trust
« Reply #228 on: September 21, 2020, 01:19:46 PM »
for those keeping an eye on the NYC market, I suggest following tradedny on twitter or instagram

they tweet various real estate transactions. For example, here's 1250 Broadway getting a $443mm loan ($680/foot). Some articles say it has 721K ft, so that would be $615/foot.

https://twitter.com/tradedny/status/1308130179416498177

The building was purchased in 2016 for $565mm but the owner likely put a lot of capex into it as well based on articles.
 
SL Green sold the building in 2009 for $310 million.

the overall point is that lending for decent buildings (I'm assuming this is leased well) is very much alive at debt levels that are not in line with the more dire predictions. It's obviously possible that these banks are making shitty loans, and just because someone is willing to lend to you at $600+/foot doesn't mean it will be worth that in 5 years or whatever, but I think the debt market will continue to surprise to the upside.

As it relates to VNO, we await the recap of 555 California / 1290 AoA to see just how friendly the debt/equity markets are. Would not be surprised if VNO is not bluffing in saying they'll pull $1B out of 555 ($700mm to VNO, $300mm to DJT).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/katevinton/2016/07/08/israels-richest-man-to-buy-1250-broadway-for-565-million/#136285ec3a7e
« Last Edit: September 21, 2020, 01:23:18 PM by thepupil »

CorpRaider

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Re: VNO - Vornado Realty Trust
« Reply #229 on: September 21, 2020, 04:09:52 PM »
Will follow.  Thx.