Author Topic: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.  (Read 4198 times)

stahleyp

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #40 on: October 27, 2020, 05:18:05 AM »
If you take the 1929-1937 numbers out for stock returns, what does it look like? You basically have the market high in 1929 (Republican) and the bottom of the Great Depression in 1932 (FDR started in early 1933).

It would probably be better to look at the numbers after 1945. Perhaps even after 1973 (after the US left the gold standard).

If you control for government spending, how does that effect gdp?
Paul


Gregmal

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #41 on: October 27, 2020, 06:03:10 AM »
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!

Times change. Positions that are consensus can be wrong. I think abortion will eventually be one of them. I do not think the 2020 election will be. Trump is a total buffoon but policy wise, pretty boringly conservative.

So his running massive budget deficits when the economy was running hot was ‘boringly conservative’? Trump has been a fiscal train wreck. He is no ‘conservative.’ He is an opportunist (a wolf dressed in sheep's clothing).

———————————
President Trump's Impact on the National Debt
- https://www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Donald Trump promised he would eliminate the nation’s debt in eight years.1 Instead, his budget estimates showed that he would actually add at least $8.3 trillion, increasing the U.S. debt to $28.5 trillion by 2025.2 However, the national debt may reach that figure much sooner. When President Trump took office in January 2017, the national debt stood at $19.9 trillion. In October 2020, the national debt reached a new high of $27 trillion.

That's an increase of almost 36% in less than four years

How much of this is attributable to the time period from March 2020 onward? Yea, I know. Trump created covid just like Hillary and Obama created ISIS.

Cardboard

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #42 on: October 27, 2020, 07:10:19 AM »
"Food for thought ...

Annual GDP growth by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 2.4%
Democratic Party: 3.8%

Annual equity returns by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 6.2%
Democratic Party: 13.2%"

Cwericb, if you truly believe in your math and logic behind it without any regard to what previous administration did, historic context, etc. AND since these Republicans were not all Trump's then are you a masochist to be a Conservative?

Anyway, got to go kill something on the market now so I can make money. Don't want to be spending too much time here with irrationality.

Cardboard

cwericb

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #43 on: October 27, 2020, 08:48:13 AM »
"Food for thought ...

Annual GDP growth by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 2.4%
Democratic Party: 3.8%

Annual equity returns by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 6.2%
Democratic Party: 13.2%"

Cwericb, if you truly believe in your math and logic behind it without any regard to what previous administration did, historic context, etc. AND since these Republicans were not all Trump's then are you a masochist to be a Conservative?

Anyway, got to go kill something on the market now so I can make money. Don't want to be spending too much time here with irrationality.

Cardboard


Just quoting the numbers from the latest RBC newsletter so I am reasonable sure they know what they are talking about. But even factoring in special circumstances the numbers are probably pretty much the same for both parties. However the takeaway is that historically Republicans are no better than the Democrats when it comes to the economy.

I just don't share your faith in Trump and have always felt he was building a house of cards.

In 2016 Trump promised to eliminate US National Debt in eight years.

For a fiscally conservative guy how do you overlook the fact that Trump has actually increased the National Debt by over one third in just four years? That is a strange path to eliminating it.
Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. - Mark Twain

Castanza

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #44 on: October 27, 2020, 09:02:41 AM »
"Food for thought ...

Annual GDP growth by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 2.4%
Democratic Party: 3.8%

Annual equity returns by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 6.2%
Democratic Party: 13.2%"

Cwericb, if you truly believe in your math and logic behind it without any regard to what previous administration did, historic context, etc. AND since these Republicans were not all Trump's then are you a masochist to be a Conservative?

Anyway, got to go kill something on the market now so I can make money. Don't want to be spending too much time here with irrationality.

Cardboard


Just quoting the numbers from the latest RBC newsletter so I am reasonable sure they know what they are talking about. But even factoring in special circumstances the numbers are probably pretty much the same for both parties. However the takeaway is that historically Republicans are no better than the Democrats when it comes to the economy.

I just don't share your faith in Trump and have always felt he was building a house of cards.

In 2016 Trump promised to eliminate US National Debt in eight years.

For a fiscally conservative guy how do you overlook the fact that Trump has actually increased the National Debt by over one third in just four years? That is a strange path to eliminating it.

These types of analysis are more based on human psychology than anything else. Same old story time and time again.

Geopolitics happen and the economy goes into the tank. Not likely due to any specific party actions. Democrats come in and prey on human attributes of greed and selfishness by promising endless free things. They get elected at the bottom on promises and then ride a wave that really can only go in one direction and then claim they fixed and solved everything. This type of narrative is prevalent in every culture throughout history for the past two thousand years. Dems are just the latest to use this tactic imo
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Dalal.Holdings

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #45 on: October 27, 2020, 09:10:04 AM »
When Republican “trickle down economics” is disproven for the 20th time: “it didn’t work because x happened”!

At the end of the day, wide income/wealth inequality needs to be addressed. Damage that’s been done to the middle class needs to be addressed. Republicans have no solution to this (like with healthcare).

stahleyp

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #46 on: October 27, 2020, 09:10:46 AM »
When Republican “trickle down economics” is disproven for the 20th time: “it didn’t work because x happened”!

At the end of the day, wide income/wealth inequality needs to be addressed. Damage that’s been done to the middle class needs to be addressed. Republicans have no solution.

I agree that trickle down is bs.
Paul

Gregmal

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #47 on: October 27, 2020, 09:16:25 AM »
The answer to the wealth divide is obviously to eliminate blue collar jobs, namely in the energy sector.

Castanza

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #48 on: October 27, 2020, 09:19:59 AM »
When Republican “trickle down economics” is disproven for the 20th time: “it didn’t work because x happened”!

At the end of the day, wide income/wealth inequality needs to be addressed. Damage that’s been done to the middle class needs to be addressed. Republicans have no solution to this (like with healthcare).

“It is amazing that people who think we cannot afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, and medication somehow think that we can afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, medication and a government bureaucracy to administer it.”

“Since this is an era when many people are concerned about 'fairness' and 'social justice,' what is your 'fair share' of what someone else has worked for?”

“The welfare state is the oldest con game in the world. First you take people's money away quietly and then you give some of it back to them flamboyantly.”

“You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.”
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Dalal.Holdings

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #49 on: October 27, 2020, 09:20:05 AM »
Good thing the energy sector is thriving with jobs, coal is “booming”, and after “New Nafta”, manufacturing stopped moving overseas...