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General Category => Politics => Topic started by: Cardboard on October 26, 2020, 08:23:55 AM

Title: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Cardboard on October 26, 2020, 08:23:55 AM
Starting to wonder if Mr. Trump's words could be a prophecy about to materialize?

We get the politicians that we deserve? Seems like the idiots voting for these morons will make us suffer greatly.

Cardboard
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: doc75 on October 26, 2020, 08:41:38 AM
Starting to wonder if Mr. Trump's words could be a prophecy about to materialize?

We get the politicians that we deserve? Seems like the idiots voting for these morons will make us suffer greatly.

Cardboard

After what happened in 2016, I think a lot of people share your concern.   

Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on October 26, 2020, 09:04:50 AM
Already blaming Joe Biden for things that occur before he even starts his term...

Don’t worry, we are “turning the corner”! Is it Easter yet?

Another Dem to dump fallout from another failed R administration on...

LOL...
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Viking on October 26, 2020, 09:53:50 AM
Cardboard you have described where we are at today perfectly. Under Trump’s leadership the US is experiencing the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. And it looks like another wave of the virus is hitting which, in the coming months, will result in another downturn in health and economic activity.

Divides in the US are also at Depression levels (race issues, regional and political strife) all fuelled by Trump.

America’s standing in the world is also at Depression levels also fuelled by Trump.

But do not despair. I think there is a US election soon.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: cwericb on October 26, 2020, 10:47:39 AM
Is it an election or an IQ test?
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: mcliu on October 26, 2020, 10:52:13 AM
If US was so united and doing so well under Obama/Biden, why did people vote for Trump?
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: cwericb on October 26, 2020, 11:09:12 AM
Because Obama and Biden were not running again?
Because voters made a mistake?
But then again, the majority of voters did NOT vote for trump.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on October 26, 2020, 11:14:11 AM
This is the ultimate mental gymnast’s thread.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Parsad on October 26, 2020, 11:17:17 AM
If US was so united and doing so well under Obama/Biden, why did people vote for Trump?

No one likes Hillary and Bill's stench.  It's going to be a landslide victory in Biden's favour.  Cheers!
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Parsad on October 26, 2020, 11:32:07 AM
Starting to wonder if Mr. Trump's words could be a prophecy about to materialize?

We get the politicians that we deserve? Seems like the idiots voting for these morons will make us suffer greatly.

Cardboard

Which prophecy:

- Our Atlantic City casino hotel is one of the best in the world...a great success...a great success!  Bankrupt!
- Trump Vancouver...Trump Toronto...great hotels...great successes!  Naming licenses cancelled...both owners went into receivership!
- Trump University...we have the best professors...the best courses...the best University!  Under investigation and shut down.
- We have the best administration...going to do big things, big things!  91% turnover in the Trump "A" team in 4 years!

Or how about all of these prophecies:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/timeline-president-donald-trump-changing-statements-on-coronavirus/

This quote by H.L. Mencken, about 100 years old, succinctly encapsulates American politics:

“When a candidate for public office faces the voters he does not face men of sense; he faces a mob of men whose chief distinguishing mark is the fact that they are quite incapable of weighing ideas, or even of comprehending any save the most elemental — men whose whole thinking is done in terms of emotion, and whose dominant emotion is dread of what they cannot understand. So confronted, the candidate must either bark with the pack or be lost... All the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

Cheers!
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Castanza on October 26, 2020, 11:38:23 AM
Cardboard you have described where we are at today perfectly. Under Trump’s leadership the US is experiencing the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. And it looks like another wave of the virus is hitting which, in the coming months, will result in another downturn in health and economic activity.

Divides in the US are also at Depression levels (race issues, regional and political strife) all fuelled by Trump.

America’s standing in the world is also at Depression levels also fuelled by Trump.

But do not despair. I think there is a US election soon.

Pretty much every country is in a recession....Should we blame all leaders then? Or just Trump?

1973. Biden enters politics
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980. Wait for it.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.
1989.
1990.
1991. Stay with us...
1992.
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001. Almost there ...
2002.
2003.
2004.
2005.
2006.
2007.
2008.
2009.
2010.
2011.
2012.
2013.
2014.
2015.
2016.
2017.
2018.
2019.
2020. Now he’s ready to fix America.

@Parsad: Truth be told, I have no idea who is going to win this election. But I think it's going to be one hell of a shock either way.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 26, 2020, 11:38:46 AM
Starting to wonder if Mr. Trump's words could be a prophecy about to materialize?

We get the politicians that we deserve? Seems like the idiots voting for these morons will make us suffer greatly.

Cardboard

Which prophecy:

- Our Atlantic City casino hotel is one of the best in the world...a great success...a great success!  Bankrupt!
- Trump Vancouver...Trump Toronto...great hotels...great successes!  Naming licenses cancelled...both owners went into receivership!
- Trump University...we have the best professors...the best courses...the best University!  Under investigation and shut down.
- We have the best administration...going to do big things, big things!  91% turnover in the Trump "A" team in 4 years!

Or how about all of these prophecies:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/timeline-president-donald-trump-changing-statements-on-coronavirus/

This quote by H.L. Mencken, about 100 years old, succinctly encapsulates American politics:

“When a candidate for public office faces the voters he does not face men of sense; he faces a mob of men whose chief distinguishing mark is the fact that they are quite incapable of weighing ideas, or even of comprehending any save the most elemental — men whose whole thinking is done in terms of emotion, and whose dominant emotion is dread of what they cannot understand. So confronted, the candidate must either bark with the pack or be lost... All the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

Cheers!

I hate to do this to you, so I'll be tamer than I would if it was someone else....but you should perfectly well understand certain elements of business ownership, sales, marketing, and ultimately strategy....better than most to be harping on shit like this.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on October 26, 2020, 11:41:07 AM
“It’s a hoax”

“It will be gone by Easter”

“It will go away and as I say, we’re rounding the turn, we’re rounding the corner”

—Trump the Prophet
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Parsad on October 26, 2020, 11:45:00 AM
Starting to wonder if Mr. Trump's words could be a prophecy about to materialize?

We get the politicians that we deserve? Seems like the idiots voting for these morons will make us suffer greatly.

Cardboard

Which prophecy:

- Our Atlantic City casino hotel is one of the best in the world...a great success...a great success!  Bankrupt!
- Trump Vancouver...Trump Toronto...great hotels...great successes!  Naming licenses cancelled...both owners went into receivership!
- Trump University...we have the best professors...the best courses...the best University!  Under investigation and shut down.
- We have the best administration...going to do big things, big things!  91% turnover in the Trump "A" team in 4 years!

Or how about all of these prophecies:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/timeline-president-donald-trump-changing-statements-on-coronavirus/

This quote by H.L. Mencken, about 100 years old, succinctly encapsulates American politics:

“When a candidate for public office faces the voters he does not face men of sense; he faces a mob of men whose chief distinguishing mark is the fact that they are quite incapable of weighing ideas, or even of comprehending any save the most elemental — men whose whole thinking is done in terms of emotion, and whose dominant emotion is dread of what they cannot understand. So confronted, the candidate must either bark with the pack or be lost... All the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum. The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

Cheers!

I hate to do this to you, so I'll be tamer than I would if it was someone else....but you should perfectly well understand certain elements of business ownership, sales, marketing, and ultimately strategy....better than most to be harping on shit like this.

I'm neither running for President, nor aiming to be Prime Minister...and agreeably, not the right person for either job.  And I'll be tamer too...you'd suck it at as well.  That doesn't mean you currently don't have a lying huckster running your country!  Cheers!
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: mcliu on October 26, 2020, 11:46:49 AM
I'm in Canada, so I don't care that much, other than maybe portfolio dropping from higher corp taxes.

Isn't it irrational to blame Trump for all that's wrong with the US.

Politics and race divide pre-date Trump and is more likely exacerbated by social media than anything else.

Bush Jr's Iraq war and GFC probably evaporated trillions of $ vs US economy was booming under Trump before virus hit.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Parsad on October 26, 2020, 11:48:57 AM
Cardboard you have described where we are at today perfectly. Under Trump’s leadership the US is experiencing the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. And it looks like another wave of the virus is hitting which, in the coming months, will result in another downturn in health and economic activity.

Divides in the US are also at Depression levels (race issues, regional and political strife) all fuelled by Trump.

America’s standing in the world is also at Depression levels also fuelled by Trump.

But do not despair. I think there is a US election soon.

Pretty much every country is in a recession....Should we blame all leaders then? Or just Trump?

1973. Biden enters politics
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980. Wait for it.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.
1989.
1990.
1991. Stay with us...
1992.
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001. Almost there ...
2002.
2003.
2004.
2005.
2006.
2007.
2008.
2009.
2010.
2011.
2012.
2013.
2014.
2015.
2016.
2017.
2018.
2019.
2020. Now he’s ready to fix America.

@Parsad: Truth be told, I have no idea who is going to win this election. But I think it's going to be one hell of a shock either way.

I don't want Biden to win either...God I wish really quality people would run...but Trump's alienated so much of the center right, includng women, and those are the voters who will vote Biden this time instead of Hillary.  Add the mass of black voters who finally stood up, and Trump will lose in a landslide...won't even be close!  Cheers!
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Parsad on October 26, 2020, 11:54:51 AM
I'm in Canada, so I don't care that much, other than maybe portfolio dropping from higher corp taxes.

Isn't it irrational to blame Trump for all that's wrong with the US.

Politics and race divide pre-date Trump and is more likely exacerbated by social media than anything else.

Bush Jr's Iraq war and GFC probably evaporated trillions of $ vs US economy was booming under Trump before virus hit.

Totally agree!  I'm not blaming Trump for Covid-19...in fact, I agree that the early stages were handled better under him than anyone else, because they had tight border restrictions from some countries already in place.  No one saw it coming, and no one was prepared...that being said, Trump could have handled the latter stages better, instead of throwing science out the window.

I'm blaming Trump for the divisiveness, incompetence of his Administration, nepotism and corruption within his Administration, mindless directives simply to wipe out anything with Obama on it instead of simply making it better, alienation of our closest allies, probably creating more extremists on both sides, fueling domestic terrorism and piling on huge amounts of debt.  Cheers!
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Viking on October 26, 2020, 11:55:19 AM
Cardboard you have described where we are at today perfectly. Under Trump’s leadership the US is experiencing the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. And it looks like another wave of the virus is hitting which, in the coming months, will result in another downturn in health and economic activity.

Divides in the US are also at Depression levels (race issues, regional and political strife) all fuelled by Trump.

America’s standing in the world is also at Depression levels also fuelled by Trump.

But do not despair. I think there is a US election soon.

Pretty much every country is in a recession....Should we blame all leaders then? Or just Trump?

1973. Biden enters politics
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980. Wait for it.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
1987.
1988.
1989.
1990.
1991. Stay with us...
1992.
1993.
1994.
1995.
1996.
1997.
1998.
1999.
2000.
2001. Almost there ...
2002.
2003.
2004.
2005.
2006.
2007.
2008.
2009.
2010.
2011.
2012.
2013.
2014.
2015.
2016.
2017.
2018.
2019.
2020. Now he’s ready to fix America.

@Parsad: Truth be told, I have no idea who is going to win this election. But I think it's going to be one hell of a shock either way.

Castanza, as i have been saying for years, leaders should be held accountable for their actions and words. It has taken 4 long years but that is finally happening with Trump. The man is a train wreck and a national disgrace.... all in plain sight for everyone to see. His incompetent handling of the virus is just another in a long list of his many failures. We will know much more in 8 days when the US votes. That, of course, will be the ultimate assessment by Americans of his Presidency.

My Province just had a Provincial election on Saturday. The party in power (NDP) was re-elected and won their largest number of seats in their history. The main reason (by far): people were very happy with their handling of the virus.

The virus/economy is NOT the problem for Trump. His actions and his words are his problem.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Cardboard on October 26, 2020, 12:19:54 PM
And as a "Conservative" you gladly voted for NDP and/or are happy about this result?

Do you guys all think we are dumb?

If that is an IQ test you guys totally failed. No idea on how business works, no idea on incentives (see Charlie Munger), no idea on economics.

Other than propaganda, I read nothing intelligent here from out loud, truly pro-socialists bunch.

Then they call themselves investors...

Cardboard
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Castanza on October 26, 2020, 12:48:33 PM
“It’s a hoax”

“It will be gone by Easter”

“It will go away and as I say, we’re rounding the turn, we’re rounding the corner”

—Trump the Prophet

"I will fix the virus"

"We will cure cancer"

Can't wait for Biden to make good on his promises...... :o
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Parsad on October 26, 2020, 12:52:04 PM
And as a "Conservative" you gladly voted for NDP and/or are happy about this result?

Do you guys all think we are dumb?

If that is an IQ test you guys totally failed. No idea on how business works, no idea on incentives (see Charlie Munger), no idea on economics.

Other than propaganda, I read nothing intelligent here from out loud, truly pro-socialists bunch.

Then they call themselves investors...

Cardboard

That's not the only reason they won.  The NDP has essentially moved into the center-left position that was previously occupied by the Liberals.  Unlike Trump, they've actually achieved alot of their election promises. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/ndp-promise-tracker-2020-1.5733474

And while I whole-heartedly disagree with their battle against private medicine, they've at least backed up their fight for Universal healthcare with improved resources, hospitals, clinics and equipment in B.C.  In other words, they haven't made empty promises like Trump or many other politicians including Trudeau.

Cheers! 
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Castanza on October 26, 2020, 02:24:25 PM
https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1320837616099487745?s=21

Coolidge arguable the most libertarian president we’ve had...just saying  :P
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Viking on October 26, 2020, 03:03:04 PM
And as a "Conservative" you gladly voted for NDP and/or are happy about this result?

Do you guys all think we are dumb?

If that is an IQ test you guys totally failed. No idea on how business works, no idea on incentives (see Charlie Munger), no idea on economics.

Other than propaganda, I read nothing intelligent here from out loud, truly pro-socialists bunch.

Then they call themselves investors...

Cardboard

Cardboard, Just to clarify

Where did i say i voted for the NDP?
Where did i say i thought it was a good thing they won the election?

I understand this might be hard to understand, but simply because i was talking about the NDP does not mean i voted for them or approve of their policies.

Now i know i did not use the words ‘disaster’, ‘worst ever’, ‘destroy the country’, ‘socialist’ or ‘’communist’ in my post. Perhaps this was my error.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: cwericb on October 26, 2020, 03:35:32 PM
"Do you guys all think we are dumb?"

Since several posters here have tried to explain to you time after time that they are small "c" and some large "c" conservatives, and yet you continue to insist on calling them "lefties", "liberals", etc because they are not far right wing extremist nut cases ... well, judge yourself accordingly.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 26, 2020, 03:40:44 PM
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: cwericb on October 26, 2020, 04:04:52 PM
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

Ah, but everything is not black and white and it also depends on your perspective.

“A pterodactyl is a kind of pterosaur, which is sort of like a duck — it’s a kind of bird,” - Paleontologist Michael Caldwell
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 26, 2020, 04:14:10 PM
The same can be said for penguins. I guess nowadays anyone can really claim to be and to identify, with anything.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: cubsfan on October 26, 2020, 04:31:27 PM
Boy oh boy - if Trump is going to lose in a landslide, someone needs to explain to me the huge rallies and crowds he attracts.
The enthusiasm is off the charts.

Meanwhile, loser Biden and Lefty Kamala can't fill a room - when he actually comes out of his basement, that is...

But I don't watch CNN or MSNBC too much - so I still say Trump wins big.

It's going to be interesting that's for sure!
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 26, 2020, 04:43:19 PM
I admire your conviction, but just dont see it. The polls of course should not be taken seriously, theyre proven frauds with obvious agendas, but a Trump victory just doesnt seem to be in the cards.

That said, if you're feeling lucky, the money line on Trump is currently +130, and frankly, I give the bookies more credibility than the pollsters because unlike the scum ball journalists, they have skin in the game.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: cwericb on October 26, 2020, 05:01:33 PM
"... I give the bookies more credibility than the pollsters because unlike the scum ball journalists, they have skin in the game."

And that's the truth!
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 26, 2020, 05:18:59 PM
If you believe the polls I'd recommend taking wagers on Democrats winning FL +110, AZ-even money, or GA +130. Or ya know, since Texas is in play, Democrats, Texas +250. Heck parlay them all. Money where the mouth is.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: cubsfan on October 26, 2020, 05:22:23 PM
I admire your conviction, but just dont see it. The polls of course should not be taken seriously, theyre proven frauds with obvious agendas, but a Trump victory just doesnt seem to be in the cards.

That said, if you're feeling lucky, the money line on Trump is currently +130, and frankly, I give the bookies more credibility than the pollsters because unlike the scum ball journalists, they have skin in the game.

Ok - I put very little stock in the polls and a lot of stock in the rally attendance, so I guess we will see. RE: The Bookies - good point, which I did not know.

In the heartland, WI, MI, PA, OH - even MN - it feels like a lot of momentum. I never though he could win MN until a couple months ago.
To me, the Black vote is critical, and his approval rating among blacks has improved significantly.

Among professionals there is an awful lot of dead silence on Trump, since they are afraid of being cancelled - but privately many will tell you
they are voting for Trump.  So trying to measure the impact of the "silent majority" is very important and not at all easy.

And all that really matters is the electoral college.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: stahleyp on October 26, 2020, 06:20:49 PM
I don't think Biden will cause a situation worse than the Great Depression. I don't buy that. Though I do think the risk of an economic shock will greatly increase if the Democrats control all 3 levels.

I also don't buy that this is going to be a landslide either way. I think it'll be close.

It's really quite bad of both parties to have such terrible candidates (though Biden's new found policies are much more harmful).
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on October 26, 2020, 06:29:58 PM
It'll be close.

Biden is favored. Trump knew he'd be tough to beat way back last yr when he was looking for dirt on him in Ukraine. If Trump wins, he'll barely squeak by (again losing the popular vote).

The chances of a Biden landslide are much greater than a Trump landslide (which is almost zero), but I wouldn't bet on a landslide either way.

As in '08-09, the depression stage is already set (the economy is already "shocked") before inauguration day. In my opinion, pandemic mismanagement greatly exacerbated it. What matters is what comes next. Fiscal spending is the only thing that will counter the massive deflationary pressure. Monetary policy is exhausted, so fiscal is all that's left. Large spending plans by Dems may be the only thing that counters the deflation, like it or not. In that scenario, Dem control is good overall to keep us from a Depression (Herbert Hoover's austerity led to Depression, FDR went the other way...)

If we do get out of it, then inflationary winds likely greet us on the other side.

Either way, it does not look like the 2020s will be a smooth ride.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: cwericb on October 26, 2020, 06:31:27 PM
Food for thought ...

Annual GDP growth by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 2.4%
Democratic Party: 3.8%

Annual equity returns by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 6.2%
Democratic Party: 13.2%
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Viking on October 26, 2020, 08:52:17 PM
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

I agree that a framework is useful. However, in terms of what a person supports there are sometimes other factors that also come in to play that have nothing to do with whether a person is ‘liberal’ or a ‘conservative’: character, honesty, reliability, open mindedness, ethics, common sense to name a few.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Parsad on October 26, 2020, 09:38:22 PM
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 26, 2020, 11:44:39 PM
I admire your conviction, but just dont see it. The polls of course should not be taken seriously, theyre proven frauds with obvious agendas, but a Trump victory just doesnt seem to be in the cards.

That said, if you're feeling lucky, the money line on Trump is currently +130, and frankly, I give the bookies more credibility than the pollsters because unlike the scum ball journalists, they have skin in the game.

Ok - I put very little stock in the polls and a lot of stock in the rally attendance, so I guess we will see. RE: The Bookies - good point, which I did not know.

In the heartland, WI, MI, PA, OH - even MN - it feels like a lot of momentum. I never though he could win MN until a couple months ago.
To me, the Black vote is critical, and his approval rating among blacks has improved significantly.

Among professionals there is an awful lot of dead silence on Trump, since they are afraid of being cancelled - but privately many will tell you
they are voting for Trump.  So trying to measure the impact of the "silent majority" is very important and not at all easy.

And all that really matters is the electoral college.

Outside of PA and MI(both heavily in Bidens favor), the bookmakers agree with you on a state by state basis. All the other "toss ups/media has Biden winning" are much more in line with your positions than the polls. However odds(money line wise) are still on a democrat sweep; take them for what you will. Biden is still sitting at -160, which indicates a heavy favorite, although Trump at +130 is more indicate of a modest underdog. The casinos are predators and likely will clean house either way.

Whats interesting is that in 2016 Trump was +275 and Clinton -300. So a much bigger upset and much narrower spread.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 26, 2020, 11:47:58 PM
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!

Times change. Positions that are consensus can be wrong. I think abortion will eventually be one of them. I do not think the 2020 election will be. Trump is a total buffoon but policy wise, pretty boringly conservative.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Viking on October 27, 2020, 12:20:38 AM
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!

Times change. Positions that are consensus can be wrong. I think abortion will eventually be one of them. I do not think the 2020 election will be. Trump is a total buffoon but policy wise, pretty boringly conservative.

So his running massive budget deficits when the economy was running hot was ‘boringly conservative’? Trump has been a fiscal train wreck. He is no ‘conservative.’ He is an opportunist (a wolf dressed in sheep's clothing).

———————————
President Trump's Impact on the National Debt
- https://www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Donald Trump promised he would eliminate the nation’s debt in eight years.1 Instead, his budget estimates showed that he would actually add at least $8.3 trillion, increasing the U.S. debt to $28.5 trillion by 2025.2 However, the national debt may reach that figure much sooner. When President Trump took office in January 2017, the national debt stood at $19.9 trillion. In October 2020, the national debt reached a new high of $27 trillion.

That's an increase of almost 36% in less than four years
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: stahleyp on October 27, 2020, 05:18:05 AM
If you take the 1929-1937 numbers out for stock returns, what does it look like? You basically have the market high in 1929 (Republican) and the bottom of the Great Depression in 1932 (FDR started in early 1933).

It would probably be better to look at the numbers after 1945. Perhaps even after 1973 (after the US left the gold standard).

If you control for government spending, how does that effect gdp?
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 27, 2020, 06:03:10 AM
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!

Times change. Positions that are consensus can be wrong. I think abortion will eventually be one of them. I do not think the 2020 election will be. Trump is a total buffoon but policy wise, pretty boringly conservative.

So his running massive budget deficits when the economy was running hot was ‘boringly conservative’? Trump has been a fiscal train wreck. He is no ‘conservative.’ He is an opportunist (a wolf dressed in sheep's clothing).

———————————
President Trump's Impact on the National Debt
- https://www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Donald Trump promised he would eliminate the nation’s debt in eight years.1 Instead, his budget estimates showed that he would actually add at least $8.3 trillion, increasing the U.S. debt to $28.5 trillion by 2025.2 However, the national debt may reach that figure much sooner. When President Trump took office in January 2017, the national debt stood at $19.9 trillion. In October 2020, the national debt reached a new high of $27 trillion.

That's an increase of almost 36% in less than four years

How much of this is attributable to the time period from March 2020 onward? Yea, I know. Trump created covid just like Hillary and Obama created ISIS.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Cardboard on October 27, 2020, 07:10:19 AM
"Food for thought ...

Annual GDP growth by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 2.4%
Democratic Party: 3.8%

Annual equity returns by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 6.2%
Democratic Party: 13.2%"

Cwericb, if you truly believe in your math and logic behind it without any regard to what previous administration did, historic context, etc. AND since these Republicans were not all Trump's then are you a masochist to be a Conservative?

Anyway, got to go kill something on the market now so I can make money. Don't want to be spending too much time here with irrationality.

Cardboard
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: cwericb on October 27, 2020, 08:48:13 AM
"Food for thought ...

Annual GDP growth by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 2.4%
Democratic Party: 3.8%

Annual equity returns by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 6.2%
Democratic Party: 13.2%"

Cwericb, if you truly believe in your math and logic behind it without any regard to what previous administration did, historic context, etc. AND since these Republicans were not all Trump's then are you a masochist to be a Conservative?

Anyway, got to go kill something on the market now so I can make money. Don't want to be spending too much time here with irrationality.

Cardboard


Just quoting the numbers from the latest RBC newsletter so I am reasonable sure they know what they are talking about. But even factoring in special circumstances the numbers are probably pretty much the same for both parties. However the takeaway is that historically Republicans are no better than the Democrats when it comes to the economy.

I just don't share your faith in Trump and have always felt he was building a house of cards.

In 2016 Trump promised to eliminate US National Debt in eight years.

For a fiscally conservative guy how do you overlook the fact that Trump has actually increased the National Debt by over one third in just four years? That is a strange path to eliminating it.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Castanza on October 27, 2020, 09:02:41 AM
"Food for thought ...

Annual GDP growth by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 2.4%
Democratic Party: 3.8%

Annual equity returns by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 6.2%
Democratic Party: 13.2%"

Cwericb, if you truly believe in your math and logic behind it without any regard to what previous administration did, historic context, etc. AND since these Republicans were not all Trump's then are you a masochist to be a Conservative?

Anyway, got to go kill something on the market now so I can make money. Don't want to be spending too much time here with irrationality.

Cardboard


Just quoting the numbers from the latest RBC newsletter so I am reasonable sure they know what they are talking about. But even factoring in special circumstances the numbers are probably pretty much the same for both parties. However the takeaway is that historically Republicans are no better than the Democrats when it comes to the economy.

I just don't share your faith in Trump and have always felt he was building a house of cards.

In 2016 Trump promised to eliminate US National Debt in eight years.

For a fiscally conservative guy how do you overlook the fact that Trump has actually increased the National Debt by over one third in just four years? That is a strange path to eliminating it.

These types of analysis are more based on human psychology than anything else. Same old story time and time again.

Geopolitics happen and the economy goes into the tank. Not likely due to any specific party actions. Democrats come in and prey on human attributes of greed and selfishness by promising endless free things. They get elected at the bottom on promises and then ride a wave that really can only go in one direction and then claim they fixed and solved everything. This type of narrative is prevalent in every culture throughout history for the past two thousand years. Dems are just the latest to use this tactic imo
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on October 27, 2020, 09:10:04 AM
When Republican “trickle down economics” is disproven for the 20th time: “it didn’t work because x happened”!

At the end of the day, wide income/wealth inequality needs to be addressed. Damage that’s been done to the middle class needs to be addressed. Republicans have no solution to this (like with healthcare).
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: stahleyp on October 27, 2020, 09:10:46 AM
When Republican “trickle down economics” is disproven for the 20th time: “it didn’t work because x happened”!

At the end of the day, wide income/wealth inequality needs to be addressed. Damage that’s been done to the middle class needs to be addressed. Republicans have no solution.

I agree that trickle down is bs.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 27, 2020, 09:16:25 AM
The answer to the wealth divide is obviously to eliminate blue collar jobs, namely in the energy sector.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Castanza on October 27, 2020, 09:19:59 AM
When Republican “trickle down economics” is disproven for the 20th time: “it didn’t work because x happened”!

At the end of the day, wide income/wealth inequality needs to be addressed. Damage that’s been done to the middle class needs to be addressed. Republicans have no solution to this (like with healthcare).

“It is amazing that people who think we cannot afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, and medication somehow think that we can afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, medication and a government bureaucracy to administer it.”

“Since this is an era when many people are concerned about 'fairness' and 'social justice,' what is your 'fair share' of what someone else has worked for?”

“The welfare state is the oldest con game in the world. First you take people's money away quietly and then you give some of it back to them flamboyantly.”

“You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it.”
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on October 27, 2020, 09:20:05 AM
Good thing the energy sector is thriving with jobs, coal is “booming”, and after “New Nafta”, manufacturing stopped moving overseas...
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Dalal.Holdings on October 27, 2020, 09:22:49 AM
When Republican “trickle down economics” is disproven for the 20th time: “it didn’t work because x happened”!

At the end of the day, wide income/wealth inequality needs to be addressed. Damage that’s been done to the middle class needs to be addressed. Republicans have no solution to this (like with healthcare).

“It is amazing that people who think we cannot afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, and medication somehow think that we can afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, medication and a government bureaucracy to administer it.”


How about for starters American drug companies charge Americans the same amount for drugs as across the border in Canada? Oh I forgot, medicare can’t negotiate on drug prices and thanks to R’s during Bush admin (and all other insurers set pricing anchored to what Medicare pays)...Meanwhile those pharma cos moved to Ireland for lower taxes...

Trump had plenty of time to come up with a plan. There is none.

If Republicans have the courage to do it, then abolish Medicare completely—but they won’t so we’re stuck with grossly overpriced drugs because the largest purchaser of drugs has no power to negotiate.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Castanza on October 27, 2020, 09:24:34 AM
Good thing the energy sector is thriving with jobs, coal is “booming”, and after “New Nafta”, manufacturing stopped moving overseas...

See you on the wind farm job site.  ::)
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Castanza on October 27, 2020, 09:26:57 AM
When Republican “trickle down economics” is disproven for the 20th time: “it didn’t work because x happened”!

At the end of the day, wide income/wealth inequality needs to be addressed. Damage that’s been done to the middle class needs to be addressed. Republicans have no solution to this (like with healthcare).

“It is amazing that people who think we cannot afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, and medication somehow think that we can afford to pay for doctors, hospitals, medication and a government bureaucracy to administer it.”


How about for starters American drug companies charge Americans the same amount for drugs as across the border in Canada? Oh I forgot, medicare can’t negotiate on drug prices and thanks to R’s during Bush admin (and all other insurers set pricing anchored to what Medicare pays)...Meanwhile those pharma cos moved to Ireland for lower taxes...

Trump had plenty of time to come up with a plan. There is none.

If Republicans have the courage to do it, then abolish Medicare completely—but they won’t so we’re stuck with grossly overpriced drugs because the largest purchaser of drugs has no power to negotiate.

So the democrat solution is to monopolize this and consolidate the power even more? Every single attempt to control healthcare and drug prices through government intervention has yielded the complete opposite results.

"Lets force employers to pay insurance for employees!" Worked out great.....right?

Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 27, 2020, 09:28:51 AM
Good thing the energy sector is thriving with jobs, coal is “booming”, and after “New Nafta”, manufacturing stopped moving overseas...

See you on the wind farm job site.  ::)

Somewhere down the line theres going to be an arbitrage opportunity where select people can buy barren farmland for $1,000 an acre and then lease it to the government for $50,000 an acre as long as its used for solar/wind energy purposes. They will also get a $10,000 tax credit.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 27, 2020, 09:32:26 AM
If people want their employer to pay for their healthcare they are more than capable of negotiating that before they go to work. I dont even think there are any laws against it either.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Viking on October 27, 2020, 09:43:58 AM
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!

Times change. Positions that are consensus can be wrong. I think abortion will eventually be one of them. I do not think the 2020 election will be. Trump is a total buffoon but policy wise, pretty boringly conservative.

So his running massive budget deficits when the economy was running hot was ‘boringly conservative’? Trump has been a fiscal train wreck. He is no ‘conservative.’ He is an opportunist (a wolf dressed in sheep's clothing).

———————————
President Trump's Impact on the National Debt
- https://www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Donald Trump promised he would eliminate the nation’s debt in eight years.1 Instead, his budget estimates showed that he would actually add at least $8.3 trillion, increasing the U.S. debt to $28.5 trillion by 2025.2 However, the national debt may reach that figure much sooner. When President Trump took office in January 2017, the national debt stood at $19.9 trillion. In October 2020, the national debt reached a new high of $27 trillion.

That's an increase of almost 36% in less than four years

How much of this is attributable to the time period from March 2020 onward? Yea, I know. Trump created covid just like Hillary and Obama created ISIS.

Covid? Really? That is the best you can do :-)

The fact is Trump blew a gaping hole in the federal deficit when he passed the tax cuts; my understanding this happened well before covid (but i am sure we will soon discover a link to a story that Covid was around back then).

Trump is a real estate man who built hos fortune with debt. Fiscal conservative? Sorry, i am not buying :-) But good try.

The longer Trump is associated with the Republican party the more he is going to remake it in his image. And because Trump is such a hot mess we can see what the Republican party has look forward too. Sometimes in life you get what you deserve. Republicans are in deep shit. (FYI, uneducated white males are a declining demographic in America :-)

Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 27, 2020, 09:50:56 AM
If you want to split hairs, you can. I never said Trump was an ardent fiscal conservative. You are pointing to one thing, which is partially fueled by a rather extraordinary event. I simply said his policies were pretty boringly conservative. He is hardly the first conservative President to pass tax cuts, attempt immigration reform, appoint conservative judges, etc. The only reason they dont seem boring is because he screams them from the megaphone every time he tries to do something. But on paper, I dont see anything all that remarkable that would distinguish him from what anyone else from the party would have likely done.
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Castanza on October 27, 2020, 10:35:15 AM
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!

Times change. Positions that are consensus can be wrong. I think abortion will eventually be one of them. I do not think the 2020 election will be. Trump is a total buffoon but policy wise, pretty boringly conservative.

So his running massive budget deficits when the economy was running hot was ‘boringly conservative’? Trump has been a fiscal train wreck. He is no ‘conservative.’ He is an opportunist (a wolf dressed in sheep's clothing).

———————————
President Trump's Impact on the National Debt
- https://www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Donald Trump promised he would eliminate the nation’s debt in eight years.1 Instead, his budget estimates showed that he would actually add at least $8.3 trillion, increasing the U.S. debt to $28.5 trillion by 2025.2 However, the national debt may reach that figure much sooner. When President Trump took office in January 2017, the national debt stood at $19.9 trillion. In October 2020, the national debt reached a new high of $27 trillion.

That's an increase of almost 36% in less than four years

How much of this is attributable to the time period from March 2020 onward? Yea, I know. Trump created covid just like Hillary and Obama created ISIS.
FYI, uneducated white males are a declining demographic in America :-)

And unintelligent/misinformed college graduates are on the rise  :D
Title: Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
Post by: Gregmal on October 27, 2020, 11:00:57 AM
The current college phenomenon is very similar to the kingdom builder CEO strategy. Growth is deceptive and misleading, often unhealthily funded, but bigger size, more students, more teachers, etc = easy justification for higher pay for those at the top and the circular comparisons to peer groups that all empower each other to keep the cycle going.