Author Topic: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.  (Read 3766 times)

Gregmal

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2020, 05:18:59 PM »
If you believe the polls I'd recommend taking wagers on Democrats winning FL +110, AZ-even money, or GA +130. Or ya know, since Texas is in play, Democrats, Texas +250. Heck parlay them all. Money where the mouth is.


cubsfan

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #31 on: October 26, 2020, 05:22:23 PM »
I admire your conviction, but just dont see it. The polls of course should not be taken seriously, theyre proven frauds with obvious agendas, but a Trump victory just doesnt seem to be in the cards.

That said, if you're feeling lucky, the money line on Trump is currently +130, and frankly, I give the bookies more credibility than the pollsters because unlike the scum ball journalists, they have skin in the game.

Ok - I put very little stock in the polls and a lot of stock in the rally attendance, so I guess we will see. RE: The Bookies - good point, which I did not know.

In the heartland, WI, MI, PA, OH - even MN - it feels like a lot of momentum. I never though he could win MN until a couple months ago.
To me, the Black vote is critical, and his approval rating among blacks has improved significantly.

Among professionals there is an awful lot of dead silence on Trump, since they are afraid of being cancelled - but privately many will tell you
they are voting for Trump.  So trying to measure the impact of the "silent majority" is very important and not at all easy.

And all that really matters is the electoral college.

stahleyp

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #32 on: October 26, 2020, 06:20:49 PM »
I don't think Biden will cause a situation worse than the Great Depression. I don't buy that. Though I do think the risk of an economic shock will greatly increase if the Democrats control all 3 levels.

I also don't buy that this is going to be a landslide either way. I think it'll be close.

It's really quite bad of both parties to have such terrible candidates (though Biden's new found policies are much more harmful).
Paul

Dalal.Holdings

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #33 on: October 26, 2020, 06:29:58 PM »
It'll be close.

Biden is favored. Trump knew he'd be tough to beat way back last yr when he was looking for dirt on him in Ukraine. If Trump wins, he'll barely squeak by (again losing the popular vote).

The chances of a Biden landslide are much greater than a Trump landslide (which is almost zero), but I wouldn't bet on a landslide either way.

As in '08-09, the depression stage is already set (the economy is already "shocked") before inauguration day. In my opinion, pandemic mismanagement greatly exacerbated it. What matters is what comes next. Fiscal spending is the only thing that will counter the massive deflationary pressure. Monetary policy is exhausted, so fiscal is all that's left. Large spending plans by Dems may be the only thing that counters the deflation, like it or not. In that scenario, Dem control is good overall to keep us from a Depression (Herbert Hoover's austerity led to Depression, FDR went the other way...)

If we do get out of it, then inflationary winds likely greet us on the other side.

Either way, it does not look like the 2020s will be a smooth ride.

cwericb

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #34 on: October 26, 2020, 06:31:27 PM »
Food for thought ...

Annual GDP growth by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 2.4%
Democratic Party: 3.8%

Annual equity returns by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 6.2%
Democratic Party: 13.2%
Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason. - Mark Twain

Viking

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #35 on: October 26, 2020, 08:52:17 PM »
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

I agree that a framework is useful. However, in terms of what a person supports there are sometimes other factors that also come in to play that have nothing to do with whether a person is ‘liberal’ or a ‘conservative’: character, honesty, reliability, open mindedness, ethics, common sense to name a few.

Parsad

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #36 on: October 26, 2020, 09:38:22 PM »
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!
No man is a failure who has friends!

Gregmal

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #37 on: October 26, 2020, 11:44:39 PM »
I admire your conviction, but just dont see it. The polls of course should not be taken seriously, theyre proven frauds with obvious agendas, but a Trump victory just doesnt seem to be in the cards.

That said, if you're feeling lucky, the money line on Trump is currently +130, and frankly, I give the bookies more credibility than the pollsters because unlike the scum ball journalists, they have skin in the game.

Ok - I put very little stock in the polls and a lot of stock in the rally attendance, so I guess we will see. RE: The Bookies - good point, which I did not know.

In the heartland, WI, MI, PA, OH - even MN - it feels like a lot of momentum. I never though he could win MN until a couple months ago.
To me, the Black vote is critical, and his approval rating among blacks has improved significantly.

Among professionals there is an awful lot of dead silence on Trump, since they are afraid of being cancelled - but privately many will tell you
they are voting for Trump.  So trying to measure the impact of the "silent majority" is very important and not at all easy.

And all that really matters is the electoral college.

Outside of PA and MI(both heavily in Bidens favor), the bookmakers agree with you on a state by state basis. All the other "toss ups/media has Biden winning" are much more in line with your positions than the polls. However odds(money line wise) are still on a democrat sweep; take them for what you will. Biden is still sitting at -160, which indicates a heavy favorite, although Trump at +130 is more indicate of a modest underdog. The casinos are predators and likely will clean house either way.

Whats interesting is that in 2016 Trump was +275 and Clinton -300. So a much bigger upset and much narrower spread.

Gregmal

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #38 on: October 26, 2020, 11:47:58 PM »
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!

Times change. Positions that are consensus can be wrong. I think abortion will eventually be one of them. I do not think the 2020 election will be. Trump is a total buffoon but policy wise, pretty boringly conservative.

Viking

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Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.
« Reply #39 on: October 27, 2020, 12:20:38 AM »
Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!

Times change. Positions that are consensus can be wrong. I think abortion will eventually be one of them. I do not think the 2020 election will be. Trump is a total buffoon but policy wise, pretty boringly conservative.

So his running massive budget deficits when the economy was running hot was ‘boringly conservative’? Trump has been a fiscal train wreck. He is no ‘conservative.’ He is an opportunist (a wolf dressed in sheep's clothing).

———————————
President Trump's Impact on the National Debt
- https://www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Donald Trump promised he would eliminate the nation’s debt in eight years.1 Instead, his budget estimates showed that he would actually add at least $8.3 trillion, increasing the U.S. debt to $28.5 trillion by 2025.2 However, the national debt may reach that figure much sooner. When President Trump took office in January 2017, the national debt stood at $19.9 trillion. In October 2020, the national debt reached a new high of $27 trillion.

That's an increase of almost 36% in less than four years