Author Topic: A Sad Day For America  (Read 55008 times)

Read the Footnotes

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Re: A Sad Day For America
« Reply #340 on: January 18, 2021, 07:53:21 AM »

The first death has been announced. RIP poor victim of another Trump grift.

As sad as this all is, I do not think we should underestimate the probability of the following taking place:

-The joint session completes their constitutional duties as early as this evening. Process of Biden becoming the next President completed.
-25th Amendment being invoked within 24 hours
-Trump impeached within the next day or two
-Trump convicted and removed before the completion of his term

Other serious risks that currently exist is that Trump will flee the country. Impeaching, removing, and convicting Trump of sedition or some other crime and putting him behind bars, would remove the risk of him fomenting insurrection from exile or sharing the information he would take with him in his head with the enemies of the USA.

We also should consider that Giuliani, Stone and other dirty tricksters may find themselves behind bars again soon.
This post was written while the capitol was still under siege. How did my immediate impressions hold up?

First, if I had taken more time to write this post, I likely would have written something more like "we should not underestimate the probability that any one of the following might happen". I think would have more accurately captured my point regarding a Bayesian approach to updating estimates regarding potential outcomes and the time required to achieve an outcome.

Seen in that light, it seems spot on, especially given that most all Trumpists seemed to think I was nuts at the time.

1) Yes, the Congress did return that evening and confirmed Biden during a session that lasted way in to the evening. There were no real substantive attempts to object and no real attempts to delay the proceedings by Republicans.

2) No the 25th was not formally inacted, but YES many cabinet members and others have said they are acting under a "defacto-25th amendment". There are many indications that the military and others including cabinet members have stopped listening to Trump and do everything they can to avoid any interaction with Trump. Apparently Cipollone was recommending that behavior for some time.

3) Yes Trump was impeached in the fastest process ever seen. How many people before the self-coup attempt, or at the time that the insurrection was still happening would have believed that:
  • the an entire impeachment trial could take place in one day, and
  • the Republican Representatives would do nothing to delay the process, and
  • Republican Representatives would not dispute the facts of the case or make any substantive arguments
  • the impeachment articles could be brought to the house in less than a week after the self-coup attempt
  • that it would not only be the fastest impeachment in history, but also
  • the most bipartisan impeachment in history
4) Trump has not been tried and I think that it makes sense that the earliest a trial could probably start is after January 20th, but at the same time, it might make sense that the trial not start for another three months. By that time support for Trump may be so low that Republican Senators might face little political risk if they vote to convict.

Ultimately, a trial in the Senate doesn't really matter, and all of this is more likely resolved in the courts, or at least first in the courts and then in the Senate. The Senate already knows the truth and has the votes if they all voted by conscious, but the issue is getting it done without putting national security at risk, or risking losing too many Republican supporters. Therefore delay is the most likely choice for Republican Senators.

Also, a trial in the Senate doesn't really matter because there is also the lower bar of the 14th amendment section 3, which only requires a simple majority vote in the House and Senate. That could be achieved with zero support from Republicans.

The rest of the predictions regarding Giuliani, Stone, Trump family members and others, I think it is too early to say but we can say that things don't look good for them. I guess we will find out soon.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2021, 04:22:49 PM by Read the Footnotes »

Read the Footnotes

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Re: A Sad Day For America
« Reply #341 on: January 18, 2021, 07:58:18 AM »
Your understanding of the middle eastern politics seem to be very narrow.
This was great. Now do the USA.