Author Topic: Bernie Sanders casts sinister shadow over the stock market  (Read 2440 times)

RuleNumberOne

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Bernie Sanders casts sinister shadow over the stock market
« on: January 30, 2020, 08:03:42 AM »
Bernie is sharpening his tweets for release at the appropriate times against drug companies, defense companies, financial companies, and just companies in general.

The Dem primary schedule: Iowa on Monday and NH the week after.

Which areas of the stock market are safe from Bernie's tweets?


RuleNumberOne

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Re: Bernie Sanders casts sinister shadow over the stock market
« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2020, 08:05:12 AM »
I meant to put this thread in the politics section but it somehow ended up here.

scorpioncapital

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Re: Bernie Sanders casts sinister shadow over the stock market
« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2020, 02:04:14 AM »
What happened in uk with corbyn and Johnson is instructive. Sanders has zero chance of winning anything so take it as an investment opportunity if you think some stocks tank because of him. However it's unlikely a sector or stock drops just because of his words.

DooDiligence

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Re: Bernie Sanders casts sinister shadow over the stock market
« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2020, 06:06:18 AM »
What happened in uk with corbyn and Johnson is instructive. Sanders has zero chance of winning anything so take it as an investment opportunity if you think some stocks tank because of him. However it's unlikely a sector or stock drops just because of his words.

BBH tanked when Hillary Clinton started jawboning drug pricing in the last election.
I sold it for a 42% gain a few years later & will do exactly the same thing if it drops sub $100 again.

Holy guacamole Batman, politics can play a part in investing.

That said,
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Gregmal

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Re: Bernie Sanders casts sinister shadow over the stock market
« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2020, 06:23:58 AM »
I think the key to these situations is where perceptions diverge greatly from reality. Politics is often the most likely catalyst for these type of investment situations to play out, but the make or break variable is looking ahead and figuring out what/if any sort of multiple expansion/contraction will occur.

Some healthcare players never recovered (reputation and market multiple wise) from the 2016 publicity tour. BBH is actually a very smart way to play something like that.

LC

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Re: Bernie Sanders casts sinister shadow over the stock market
« Reply #5 on: January 31, 2020, 06:47:16 AM »
I would argue these are trades and not investments. Closer to the speculative side of things. You're betting that you understand the market's perception of political events and can discount them better than everyone else.

Which may in fact be true. Politics has become very binary and so it appears that the odds and outcomes are well defined, at least for now.
But as with all things speculative, this can change. Caution may be warranted.
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DTEJD1997

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Re: Bernie Sanders casts sinister shadow over the stock market
« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2020, 07:49:17 AM »
Hey all:

If I were in the DNC, I would be absolutely PANICKING over Bernie Sanders.  He is not going to win anything on a national level.  Trump is going to absolutely steam roll him.

Bernie does not play to the industrial Midwest, union members, anybody with capital, and so on. 

I've heard multiple different people, some Democrats & liberals, describe him as a "crank" and "loser".

If he gets the nomination, Dems will also lose offices downticket.  It will be a disaster of "biblical proportions" for the party.  I think they know this.

RuleNumberOne

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Re: Bernie Sanders casts sinister shadow over the stock market
« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2020, 08:01:59 AM »
I think Bernie has a good chance of winning because he is clever enough to never reveal how he intends to pay for his promises. In 2016, his promised expenditures were 3-5x greater than his tax revenues.

Every college student or person with student debt or parent whose child may be going soon to college would turn out to vote for Bernie if he promises to cancel student debt and make college free.

In my county, the voter turnout in 2016 was 35%. The side whose voters are most enthusiastic will win. Elizabeth plummeted as soon as she revealed how she plans to pay for free healthcare. Bernie never bothered giving detailed plans in 2016. When taxpayers are forced to pay $200k for partying teenagers majoring in useless stuff, the nation's competitiveness goes down.


What happened in uk with corbyn and Johnson is instructive. Sanders has zero chance of winning anything so take it as an investment opportunity if you think some stocks tank because of him. However it's unlikely a sector or stock drops just because of his words.

RuleNumberOne

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Re: Bernie Sanders casts sinister shadow over the stock market
« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2020, 09:49:19 AM »
I see defense stocks dropping a lot today.

RTN, NOC, GD are -3% or worse.

Yesterday pharma capex companies got hit. Bernie is a nominee unlike any other.

DTEJD1997

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Re: Bernie Sanders casts sinister shadow over the stock market
« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2020, 10:52:47 AM »
I think Bernie has a good chance of winning because he is clever enough to never reveal how he intends to pay for his promises. In 2016, his promised expenditures were 3-5x greater than his tax revenues.

Every college student or person with student debt or parent whose child may be going soon to college would turn out to vote for Bernie if he promises to cancel student debt and make college free.

Bernie never bothered giving detailed plans in 2016. When taxpayers are forced to pay $200k for partying teenagers majoring in useless stuff, the nation's competitiveness goes down.

I've got some bad news...

The country is ALREADY paying for $200k degrees in useless nonsense.

How is that?  There is something called IBR (Income Based Repayment).  If you make a certain amount of income, you can get on it.  Most people qualify for it.  Once you are on it, you pay a percentage of your income, between 0 and 20%?  After 20 years, if you stay in the program, and if you have not paid off your student loan, it is discharged.

A huge percentage of people on IBR pay little or nothing.

So a large percentage of student loan debt is never going to get repaid, one way or the other.  There are two problems with that:

A). Students buried under hopeless debt have it for 20+ years.  Makes family formation, retirement savings, and other things much more difficult.  If they have a "bum degree", let them bankrupt out after a shorter period of time? 

B). The skools laugh all the way to the bank.  They get their money up front, and have no vested interest in the financial or professional outcomes of their students.  Skools have to take some responsibility and can't be selling useless pieces of paper.  They are also going to have to lower price, increase quality and WORK a lot harder.  When I was in skool, it was SHOCKING how lazy some of professors were.  Maybe increase their workweek from 12 hours to 50?