Author Topic: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?  (Read 4014 times)

Read the Footnotes

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #50 on: October 08, 2019, 03:55:23 AM »

WeWorks demise has nothing to do with any of this, it was a failure of the board of directors elected by the VC’s to reign in nepotism. I guess the VC thought it didn’t matter because they could dump this on the public before the wheels would come off.

Ok. I admit I was joking, but I do believe they have something in common. Both Warren and WeWork CEO Neumann were selling a bunch of BS that probably wouldn't work and would create all kinds of unintended consequences.

If you don't get my joke, you probably haven't paid attention to the way Neumann sold WeWork and all the socialist, kibbutz BS that went along with the pitch. It was a great excuse for not making any money.

Here's a great video that I recommend for yucks. Ashton Kutcher helps Adam Neumann lecture us on why profits don't matter.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/01/14/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-ashton-kutcher-and-wework-ceo-adam-neumann.html

It's only a couple of months old, and it's already starting to not stand the test of time.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2019, 05:06:02 AM by Read the Footnotes »


Spekulatius

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #51 on: October 08, 2019, 04:09:36 AM »

Trump has a serious personality disorder. Elizabeth Warren does not seem to have one.

Yes, she is an agent/politician but how one would compare her to Trump is truly beyond me.

BTW regarding German workers, in 2001 or so they started to implement local regulation that fucked up workers/households, reducing local demand and thus depending on the US economy, and of course, also managed to fuck up peripheral Europe.  All the talk is about China, but Germany is one of the main culprits and they would have to rebalance as well.  In general, I'd be hesitant to buy any German equity these days.

Those reforms are called “Harzer Reform”. They reduced some social services like unemployment benefits, pensions etc. They were ironically instituted by the Social Democrats (that’s why I say, never judge a book by its cover) , but also made the German economy hyper competitive relative to European peers at least.

I believe the reforms were probably good, but they should have moved the savings in the households pockets, via lower VAT, reverse the pension cut (they are some of the lowest in Europe as a percentage of salary) and middle class tax rates.
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Gregmal

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #52 on: October 08, 2019, 05:57:35 AM »
Lying Liz just can't help herself. Now this story about how she claims to have been fired for getting pregnant turns out to be as real as her Indian ancestry.

meiroy

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #53 on: October 08, 2019, 05:46:40 PM »

Trump has a serious personality disorder. Elizabeth Warren does not seem to have one.

Yes, she is an agent/politician but how one would compare her to Trump is truly beyond me.

BTW regarding German workers, in 2001 or so they started to implement local regulation that fucked up workers/households, reducing local demand and thus depending on the US economy, and of course, also managed to fuck up peripheral Europe.  All the talk is about China, but Germany is one of the main culprits and they would have to rebalance as well.  In general, I'd be hesitant to buy any German equity these days.

Those reforms are called “Harzer Reform”. They reduced some social services like unemployment benefits, pensions etc. They were ironically instituted by the Social Democrats (that’s why I say, never judge a book by its cover) , but also made the German economy hyper competitive relative to European peers at least.

I believe the reforms were probably good, but they should have moved the savings in the households pockets, via lower VAT, reverse the pension cut (they are some of the lowest in Europe as a percentage of salary) and middle class tax rates.

But,  they didn't, and so local households' demand dropped and then they have to rely on beggar-thy-neighbor because what are you going to do with all that production capacity and all that capital if it cant be used locally? Regarding competitiveness, the union countries all have the same currency, and so the "European peers" could not really adjust easily.  Germany took advantage of that. The cost might be the breakup of the union.






RuleNumberOne

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #54 on: October 20, 2019, 04:17:37 PM »
Now even Buttigieg wants to revert the corporate  tax rate to 35% from 21% to pay for his healthcare plan.

Elizabeth has a far bigger hole $30 trillion hole to fill for her Medicare for All plan. She says she will announce within the next few weeks what new taxes need to be levied. Presumably the wealth tax ceiling will be lowered from $50 million to $2 million and there will be a big tax on anyone making more than $100k. There is simply no money left to pay the six-figure pensions to CA public employees and also pay for Elizabeth's plans.

Stocks should fall if this happens.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-20/pete-buttigieg-eyes-35-corporate-tax-rate-to-fund-health-plan?srnd=premium
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-20/klobuchar-says-she-d-be-in-washington-for-trial-campaign-update?srnd=premium

meiroy

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Re: How much will the stock market fall if Elizabeth wins?
« Reply #55 on: October 20, 2019, 06:43:34 PM »


It's very unlikely they will manage to implement these numbers.  Either way, if they will be able to transfer wealth to common households it will significantly increase demand and with it the rest of the economy, so stocks of good businesses will do even better in the long run. Currently, corporations and some individuals are flooded with cash. It's not like they require more capital, and if they do they can easily get more with these low rates. What we need is demand.