Author Topic: Massive Turning Point For Big Tech?  (Read 7982 times)

Gregmal

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Massive Turning Point For Big Tech?
« on: January 10, 2021, 12:52:21 PM »
Perhaps its just me, but the events following the 1/6 event that will not be spoken of in order to avoid getting political....was this not a potential tipping point against the already moving freight train that is big tech and its eventual day of reckoning with regulators over anti trust concerns? Particularly, the seemingly coordinated effort by Apple, Google and Amazon to end Parlor, for virtually no reason? After Twtr, IMO wrongly, but at the same time, borderline justifiably, banned Trump? You dont even have to have an opinion on the merits of Twitter/Trump or separately Parler...all you need to do is see how many businesses have no options and simply have to play ball with 2-3 gatekeepers. I could go on a bit more but the ramifications for this event IMO could be huge and I wouldn't be shocked to start seeing a tech selloff as people begin realizing the potential implications of this.

Twitter I think effectively just blew itself up. I'd expect horrific MAU comps for probably the next 12 months. FB has already had user issues masked by IG, I'd imagine it fares a bit better..its also been beaten up recently so some may be priced in. I really dont know much about Parler but is it any worse than Reddit or other places where ideas and people exchange? Apple and AMZN though in my opinion have largely been given passes and especially Apple, now between Epic, and then this...has really highlighted for even the less engaged how much control this handful of companies has over what are essentially utility like resources.

Are there differing interpretations? I think with something like GOOG, a breakup creates some short term headwinds but long term value emerges. I am not sure this is the case for all of them through. That and once again MSFT breezes through all this without even a question.


LC

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Re: Massive Turning Point For Big Tech?
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2021, 01:07:00 PM »
On the other hand, the famous MSFT antitrust case came after the tech bubble bursting and in my opinion regulatory action are usually lagging indicators. Particularly the big ones e.g. the bank reform post 2008.
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Viking

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Re: Massive Turning Point For Big Tech?
« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2021, 01:15:00 PM »
So Greg to keep the discussion out of the gutter (and i am not saying you are taking it there) i would like to hear your thoughts on why those tech companies did what they did? How can we peel the onion a few layers (with analysis) and talk about all the different elements of what is really going on here. It is a complex topic involving freedom of speech, law and order, legal liability etc. I think i have a basic grasp of both sides of the argument but i am always open to new ideas, logic and analysis.

In my mind the central question is: are people/organizations/governments accountable for what they post of social media sites? For example, if the government of Iran opens up an account on Twitter or Facebook are they free to post whatever they want with no consequences?

« Last Edit: January 10, 2021, 01:22:50 PM by Viking »

cubsfan

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Re: Massive Turning Point For Big Tech?
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2021, 01:22:07 PM »
The real question is: Who is wielding monopoly power?

I agree FB is likely unfazed as it's franchise, at least to me, is bullet proof.

Twitter, on the other hand, will pay a big price.  I have no idea how hard it would be to replicate Twitter's technology, but I have rarely used it
or pay attention to it.

Regulations aside - it's completely obvious what vicious liars those CEO's have been, especially with their recent Congressional testimony,
and now, their co-ordinated actions to stifle free speech and wield their monopoly power.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2021, 01:59:28 PM by cubsfan »

Gregmal

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Re: Massive Turning Point For Big Tech?
« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2021, 01:23:32 PM »
I would like to keep this open to people who dont want to discuss politics...so I will politely decline to take the baited hook.

The bigger, glaring issue to me, is how this highlighted the extremely limited option for entry facing folks/businesses. On mobile, Android and Apple are the gatekeeper and its not even debatable. This right there presents a major issue in terms of anti trust. Then on the internet, you get into the Twitter, FB, Google issue of Section 230. Its multi faceted. And you now have pretty clear evidence that they coordinate their efforts as well.

EDIT: to answer your question better Viking...Youtube and such had a pretty simple and reasonable policy not too long ago. Certain content gets flagged and need verification of 18+ year of age status to access. If it violates terms of agreement, you ban it. Simply making things up as you go along or pretending you can read peoples minds, crosses over 230 and also subjects you to discrimination issues.

If you develop an app, you need an App Store. What percentage of market are IOS and Android?
« Last Edit: January 10, 2021, 01:39:39 PM by Gregmal »

DooDiligence

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Re: Massive Turning Point For Big Tech?
« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2021, 01:36:45 PM »
Reddit mods will use the ban hammer, without mercy, on users who incite violence.

Twitter finally grew a spine and started removing hate speech. Some users are complaining that they're losing followers because of it. Hmmm.

https://twitter.com/SarahHuckabee/status/1347990928984842245?s=20

Are there any Parler users here who can comment on censorship over there?
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Viking

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Re: Massive Turning Point For Big Tech?
« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2021, 01:42:55 PM »
On this whole topic the central question is: are social media sites like Twitter and Facebook ever justified in removing an individual or an app from their platforms?

The answer, of course is YES. The easy examples are:
- foreign governments attempting to meddle in US domestic affairs.
- pedophiles
- KKK

So i think we can all agree that, yes, these sites are justified to manage individual  accounts and apps. And we could also say they have an obligation to do so proactively.

The question then becomes one of what behavior/actions warrant removal?

So the key to this whole discussion is very simple:
1.) did Trump’s behaviour warrant his ban?
2.) did Parlour’s behaviour (lack of regulating its site) warrant the ban?

The behaviour of Trump and Parlour needs to be understood. That is what needs to be discussed. Once this is fully understood then the decisions by the teck companies can be analyzed... was it appropriate or not?

We are all getting excited about the punishment... what we need to do is dissect the ‘crime’ (not saying there was one... but the big tech companies obviously felt strongly they needed to do what they did and given the backlash they will face). i am trying to be inquisitive and open minded).
« Last Edit: January 10, 2021, 01:50:27 PM by Viking »

Casey

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Re: Massive Turning Point For Big Tech?
« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2021, 01:43:21 PM »
Perhaps its just me, but the events following the 1/6 event that will not be spoken of in order to avoid getting political....was this not a potential tipping point against the already moving freight train that is big tech and its eventual day of reckoning with regulators over anti trust concerns? Particularly, the seemingly coordinated effort by Apple, Google and Amazon to end Parlor, for virtually no reason? After Twtr, IMO wrongly, but at the same time, borderline justifiably, banned Trump? You dont even have to have an opinion on the merits of Twitter/Trump or separately Parler...all you need to do is see how many businesses have no options and simply have to play ball with 2-3 gatekeepers. I could go on a bit more but the ramifications for this event IMO could be huge and I wouldn't be shocked to start seeing a tech selloff as people begin realizing the potential implications of this.

Twitter I think effectively just blew itself up. I'd expect horrific MAU comps for probably the next 12 months. FB has already had user issues masked by IG, I'd imagine it fares a bit better..its also been beaten up recently so some may be priced in. I really dont know much about Parler but is it any worse than Reddit or other places where ideas and people exchange? Apple and AMZN though in my opinion have largely been given passes and especially Apple, now between Epic, and then this...has really highlighted for even the less engaged how much control this handful of companies has over what are essentially utility like resources.

Are there differing interpretations? I think with something like GOOG, a breakup creates some short term headwinds but long term value emerges. I am not sure this is the case for all of them through. That and once again MSFT breezes through all this without even a question.

I think 'blew itself up' is strongly worded, but that your instincts are right. There's a reason that they kept pushing out these content moderation decisions. And it's a risk that could cause competitors to grow and people to look for alternatives.

It's also fair to say that the situation has changed after 1/6 and that they have increased justification to remove certain groups & content (it starts to be viewed as various crimes... domestic terrorism, etc and you're getting calls from the FBI) from their platform.

I don't think colluding to remove this particular group of people is going to put them in a worse position with Democrats.

If you're in the % of republicans who are aligned with overthrowing the election,  yes sure you're wondering what your options are for coordinating your coup. And if your sympathetic to avoiding big tech censorship of your conversations (a much larger group!), you're also wondering what your options are.

This is an opportunity for the tech landscape to get more diverse, which doesn't seem bad to me.

On a forced breakup of any, I don't think it will happen. Just my impression.
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james22

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Re: Massive Turning Point For Big Tech?
« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2021, 01:53:53 PM »
what we need to do is dissect the crime (not saying there was one...

Why? There'll be no agreement there.

Just recognition that a sizable fraction of the population believes there was no crime, and the big tech reaction amounts to censorship, is reason to expect something of a turning point.
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cherzeca

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Re: Massive Turning Point For Big Tech?
« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2021, 01:54:14 PM »
what does big tech have to fear? it depends.
apple needs to worry about not having google pay it some $6B/yr, all going straight to EBIT, for an exclusive search default on its phones.
FB likely won't be blown up, but will be prevented from making more acquisitions like Instagram. back to investing in R&D.
google has the most to lose, imo, as its ad auctioning process and search ordering algo will get messed with.

none of this seems threatening to these companies, imo.  also I dont see any of this not getting done as big tech censors conservatives to make progressives happy. so all of this Orwellian stuff going on now won't change a thing, imo.  still think big tech is worthy of investment.