Author Topic: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'  (Read 12745 times)

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4974
Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #50 on: February 10, 2019, 09:21:39 AM »
I love her newest claim that Hispanics aren't subject to immigration laws.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2019/02/08/aoc-ice-remarks-n2541027

The amount of attention a freshman Rep gets when the POTUS says the same types of stuff is why we have both. She can't even bring a bill to the floor without Pelosi's approval. She is far from the only Rep to say something stupid. There are also numerous Congressmen, cabinet members, gov't officials, ect that have done something that others have been forced to resign for.

"North Korea, under the leadership of Kim Jong Un, will become a great Economic Powerhouse. He may surprise some but he wonít surprise me, because I have gotten to know him & fully understand how capable he is. North Korea will become a different kind of Rocket - an Economic one!"

As long as everyone blames the other side instead of finding compromise, we'll sink deeper and the perpetual pessimists will say "told you America is Rome". It's willfull failure.

AOC is using Trumpís playbook. Whoever screams the loudest nonsense wins.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.


MarkS

  • Guest
Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #51 on: February 10, 2019, 09:53:15 AM »
The biggest issue is so much entrenched in "the system" that it'll never get addressed. Yes, upward mobility is big. But it's two tiered IMO. It also has a lot to do with education.

First, one of the tried and true mom and pop ways to make a living was to own and operate a local business. These were predominantly retail, and the nest egg was paying off your mortgage and owning both the business and the real estate. This way is largely gone because of the Walmarts and Amazons. I have a friend who's father owned a big local insurance agency. He told me how in his teenage years both he and his brother had hopes of taking over the family business. The father told them that it was there if they wanted it, but that he didn't think the industry was headed in a direction that would allow them to have the careers they were seeking. I see large family run nurseries selling or closing up shop after decades all the time. Travel agencies don't exist anymore. If you aren't a hair salon or a dry cleaner you dont really have a shot anymore. There is no way to replace these things.

Second, to become a high earner, you kind of need to have an ability to see where things are headed. Or as a teenager, be pushed in the right direction, or be lucky in terms of what your interests are at that age. Banking was en vogue in the 70's and 80's, 90's and 2000's it was internet, and I think now through the foreseeable future it'll be derivatives of biomedical engineering and programming. But even if you disagree, look at where it's "easy" to make big money as a w-2. The skillset needed for these jobs simply are not taught in 95% of the high schools in America. The ones that do give intros to these areas are generally private schools that most families cant afford. 

So, to the future generations, what do they do? The number of high paying jobs in the financial industry is shrinking fast. Local family businesses in retail aren't there. And anything sales based is in the process of being phased out by the likes of big corporations who's sole goal was to squeeze margins and kill competitors, and automation. Real estate agent commissions are and will continue to get crushed, car dealerships are fighting the Tesla model, but there will be pressure there. Insurance is becoming available on agentless platforms, stocks are traded for $1 on IBKR and regardless everyone is buying index funds now, and outside of that what's left are a healthy, but not excessive number of jobs where one can make $40-50K a year being a cog.

I do think one of the biggest culprits are cheap rich people. The other biggest culprit is the government. And because these pieces of the problem are on opposite ends of the spectrum, they'll never be fixed. Government wants to steal from people who already carry the load so they can piss away the money on things that dont solve anything(like investigating helicopter noise and Russian people), while wealthy people and corporations, pissed off that the government is constantly trying to poach what they earn, squeeze every penny left and as a result low and mid level employees get squeezed.

Simply look around you - who are the 'other' rich?
I see a lots of tradespeople (plumber, welder, mechanic, brewer, dentist, coder, trucker, framer); who built their own businesses.
I see lots of property flippers; buying low, fixing up, & selling on at a higher price.
I see lots of dealers; drugs, pimps, salespeople, you name it.

I also see the attitude that says you aren't rich unless you have a high paying, 'high status', job. The attitude that I'm the guy/gal who commands empires, you're just the grunt that I tell what to do. And one of those people who actively tells my kids NOT to pursue the trades, 'cause its low status. Perhaps you're just reaping what you've sown?

We can make anything, anywhere; but we need someone HERE to fix it when it breaks. You don't buy a new car when it breaks, or buy a new house when the washroom floods. You pay a trucker HERE to remove your garbage HERE, and deliver your food to a grocery store HERE. You pay the coder HERE to re-boot the robot on the production line, or that production stops. No tradesperson, & you're f'kd, & the more digital we become the more they are needed. That high paying job? We have AI and robots for that.

The bonus we all get, is an end to the illegal immigration hysteria.
If I have trade certificates, and that illegal doesn't; I get the job, because I'm skilled - & that illegal isn't. I don't HAVE to be union. 
And when that illegal eventually gets that US trade certificate? They go home, using that certificate to enjoy a standard of living many times better than it would have been had they remained in the US. US racism remains alive and well, & doing its job very effectively.

No need for a 'wall'. Save the money and spend it on expanded trade schools instead.
'Cause the next time you see todays illegal, you'll see him/her as a skilled legal immigrant; as they don't want to be 'illegal' either.
And you'll have a large pool of US certified trades people to draw on, should you ever fall short.

If you really want to 'Make America Great Again', you're going to have to replace infrastructure in a big way.
Where are the tradespeople coming from?

SD

 





Hi Sharper

You might be understating the impact on AI on the labor force.  I can easily envision many of the jobs you're describing to eventually be performed by AI, like refuse collection, self driving trucks and more.   Many people believe that a Universal Basic Income will be needed as AI become ubiquitous.  See https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/20/richard-branson-a-i-will-make-universal-basic-income-necessary.html
Branson is just one of many - I'm not trying to single him out.   If this is the case, then a UBI is another very good reason to eliminate illegal immigration. 

Read the Footnotes

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 610
Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #52 on: February 10, 2019, 09:59:11 AM »
AOC is using Trumpís playbook. Whoever screams the loudest nonsense wins.
I agree. Both are dangerous because:

1. Loud and attention seeking
2. Frequently full of nonsense
3. Populist
4. Exploiting divisive rhetoric
5. Successful at attracting attention by spewing nonsensical divisive populist rhetoric

It will be interesting to see if she will be successful at utilizing improvisation as a populist. It will also be interesting to see if she is capable of distracting, deflecting or denying if her previously held positions if they are proven to be nonsensical.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2019, 10:00:42 AM by Read the Footnotes »

Gregmal

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3880
Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #53 on: February 10, 2019, 10:05:43 AM »
The biggest issue is so much entrenched in "the system" that it'll never get addressed. Yes, upward mobility is big. But it's two tiered IMO. It also has a lot to do with education.

First, one of the tried and true mom and pop ways to make a living was to own and operate a local business. These were predominantly retail, and the nest egg was paying off your mortgage and owning both the business and the real estate. This way is largely gone because of the Walmarts and Amazons. I have a friend who's father owned a big local insurance agency. He told me how in his teenage years both he and his brother had hopes of taking over the family business. The father told them that it was there if they wanted it, but that he didn't think the industry was headed in a direction that would allow them to have the careers they were seeking. I see large family run nurseries selling or closing up shop after decades all the time. Travel agencies don't exist anymore. If you aren't a hair salon or a dry cleaner you dont really have a shot anymore. There is no way to replace these things.

Second, to become a high earner, you kind of need to have an ability to see where things are headed. Or as a teenager, be pushed in the right direction, or be lucky in terms of what your interests are at that age. Banking was en vogue in the 70's and 80's, 90's and 2000's it was internet, and I think now through the foreseeable future it'll be derivatives of biomedical engineering and programming. But even if you disagree, look at where it's "easy" to make big money as a w-2. The skillset needed for these jobs simply are not taught in 95% of the high schools in America. The ones that do give intros to these areas are generally private schools that most families cant afford. 

So, to the future generations, what do they do? The number of high paying jobs in the financial industry is shrinking fast. Local family businesses in retail aren't there. And anything sales based is in the process of being phased out by the likes of big corporations who's sole goal was to squeeze margins and kill competitors, and automation. Real estate agent commissions are and will continue to get crushed, car dealerships are fighting the Tesla model, but there will be pressure there. Insurance is becoming available on agentless platforms, stocks are traded for $1 on IBKR and regardless everyone is buying index funds now, and outside of that what's left are a healthy, but not excessive number of jobs where one can make $40-50K a year being a cog.

I do think one of the biggest culprits are cheap rich people. The other biggest culprit is the government. And because these pieces of the problem are on opposite ends of the spectrum, they'll never be fixed. Government wants to steal from people who already carry the load so they can piss away the money on things that dont solve anything(like investigating helicopter noise and Russian people), while wealthy people and corporations, pissed off that the government is constantly trying to poach what they earn, squeeze every penny left and as a result low and mid level employees get squeezed.

Simply look around you - who are the 'other' rich?
I see a lots of tradespeople (plumber, welder, mechanic, brewer, dentist, coder, trucker, framer); who built their own businesses.
I see lots of property flippers; buying low, fixing up, & selling on at a higher price.
I see lots of dealers; drugs, pimps, salespeople, you name it.

I also see the attitude that says you aren't rich unless you have a high paying, 'high status', job. The attitude that I'm the guy/gal who commands empires, you're just the grunt that I tell what to do. And one of those people who actively tells my kids NOT to pursue the trades, 'cause its low status. Perhaps you're just reaping what you've sown?

We can make anything, anywhere; but we need someone HERE to fix it when it breaks. You don't buy a new car when it breaks, or buy a new house when the washroom floods. You pay a trucker HERE to remove your garbage HERE, and deliver your food to a grocery store HERE. You pay the coder HERE to re-boot the robot on the production line, or that production stops. No tradesperson, & you're f'kd, & the more digital we become the more they are needed. That high paying job? We have AI and robots for that.

The bonus we all get, is an end to the illegal immigration hysteria.
If I have trade certificates, and that illegal doesn't; I get the job, because I'm skilled - & that illegal isn't. I don't HAVE to be union. 
And when that illegal eventually gets that US trade certificate? They go home, using that certificate to enjoy a standard of living many times better than it would have been had they remained in the US. US racism remains alive and well, & doing its job very effectively.

No need for a 'wall'. Save the money and spend it on expanded trade schools instead.
'Cause the next time you see todays illegal, you'll see him/her as a skilled legal immigrant; as they don't want to be 'illegal' either.
And you'll have a large pool of US certified trades people to draw on, should you ever fall short.

If you really want to 'Make America Great Again', you're going to have to replace infrastructure in a big way.
Where are the tradespeople coming from?

SD

Tradespeople are important, but they are getting squeezed too. I dont really think there is much merit to the "status" rich. Those, at least from my experience are generally rich people/people chasing that "lifestyle"; mainly because they are already secure. What I think most refer to, is the ability to put in an honest 25 years somewhere and have a reasonable expectation to retire comfortably. That used to be the norm. Now people are told to put off retiring until 68...

But getting back to what you describe, there are two key themes. One, almost all of those trade job revolve around housing. You mention home flippers, but this is hardly something one should have the expectation of a good long career in; it is IMO speculative. Second, this is another rich guy hobby/job. Its very capital intensive. You need to know the trades, yes, but if you dont have a big personal bankroll, you need access to capital. Hardly something Joe Jr can get into out of trade school. hardly something a mid 30's bloke with 50K in his savings account should pursue either. Also, maybe right now in Canada where housing is popping, sure, you have greater opportunity. But...

Getting to the second theme, the tradespeople. These are exactly the type of jobs getting eliminated. The mechanic? Its hard not to notice that this business, once dominated by mom and pop garage shops, is now owned by big corporate franchises like Midas, STS/Mavis, etc... The mom and pop shops get squeezed on price by the big guys with resources, or even things as simple as the ability to offer financing on that $2000 fix. Newer mechanics almost always end up gravitating to the bigger chains because they pay and benefits are better and there is promise of upward mobility; but again, look at how many guys working at the Sears Auto or Jiffy Lube have been doing oil changes for 15+ years. Do these guys earn livable wages? I suppose on average, yes. $30-45 an hour is what they typically get, but they dont have much upside from there.

Coders and Dentists? These again are jobs with huge advantages to those who already have resources. Ever look at the types of kids going to medical/dental school? Or the kids majoring in computer science?

Plumbers and HVAC guys again, like mechanics can make a "livable" wage. But again, are all fighting for the same piece of pie, reliant on housing, and bound to the 2am service call on a Sunday morning otherwise risk losing a valued customer. I'd also point out something quite scary on these fronts, something that I thought would have received more attention here, but apparently went unnoticed, and that was Brookfields acquisition of Enercare. Without going crazy into more detail, This should cause any tradesman in the home services area to shit their pants. These guys are in the process of taking more or less any "home service" and turning it into a utility. Bye bye local, small businesses!

Truckers? I kind of agree there. I dont know about in Canada but in America there is a SEVERE shortage of truckers and its gotten so bad that some of these companies have to make obscene offers; Like $55 an hour, with guaranteed 4 nights a week home, month vacation time, great benefits, and still, no one wants to do it...Maybe more people should. I'm curious to look into this more as to why its such a non starter for people, but to say that these people thrive isn't really accurate. But then again, look ahead 5 years and how much of this gets eaten by self driving trucks/automated delivery service?

So all in all, I think the only people petty enough not to pursue jobs or careers because they are "low status" are generally people already doing ok and now more worried about keeping up with the Jonses rather than making sure their mortgage is paid or kid has a small college fund.The solution to me, is somewhere in the ballpark of local/state government creating incentives and/or credits that let the small business compete vs the Goliaths. I am generally all for capitalism, but if we step back and look at where we are, it seems to be somewhere around the 8th inning in Monopoly. Everyone had fun and it worked for a while(a quite long time actually according to historical standards), but now, the deck is highly stacked against anyone new to the game.



cubsfan

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1964
Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #54 on: February 10, 2019, 10:28:07 AM »
AOC is using Trumpís playbook. Whoever screams the loudest nonsense wins.
I agree. Both are dangerous because:

1. Loud and attention seeking
2. Frequently full of nonsense
3. Populist
4. Exploiting divisive rhetoric
5. Successful at attracting attention by spewing nonsensical divisive populist rhetoric

It will be interesting to see if she will be successful at utilizing improvisation as a populist. It will also be interesting to see if she is capable of distracting, deflecting or denying if her previously held positions if they are proven to be nonsensical.

There is certainly nothing wrong with being a populist, when government fails to represent your interest.
Trump was elected because he took his message directly to the people - when neither party (or the DC swamp) paid attention to the middle class in this country.
His populist approach was the reason he was elected - not being beholden to either party or any lobbying groups.

And they all hate him for his success because it threatens their existence and the political status quo.

Just think, a guy with Twitter, no money to speak of - can actually get elected in this country without the backing of a political machine - just speak
directly to the people with your message - and let the people decide.

We should all hope for more populist success in America.


rkbabang

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4714
Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #55 on: February 10, 2019, 11:30:17 AM »
That green new deal document never existed. Who are you going to believe me or your own lying eyes?

https://freebeacon.com/politics/ocasio-cortez-gaslights-green-new-deal/

Read the Footnotes

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 610
Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #56 on: February 10, 2019, 11:46:21 AM »

There is certainly nothing wrong with being a populist, when government fails to represent your interest.


You are right. There is nothing wrong with being a populist. Here's a definition for populist that I grabbed off the web:

Quote
a person, especially a politician, who strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.
"he ran as a populist on an anticorruption platform"

I didn't say there was anything wrong with populism by itself. Populism in the right hands could be admirable.

I stand by my statement that populism in combination with the other traits and behaviors I listed should be concerning.

One danger of populism is that even good people could become drunk on the power of populism. Think of populism like "the force". It has a dark side and some won't be able to resist it, or won't even want to try.

Many populists have later been seen to be disingenuous and to have manipulated the population they appealed to. Sometimes the damage done is small, sometimes it is calamitous.

Like conmen, disingenuous populists appeal to peoples emotions and interests, and like conmen a disingenuous populist is only successful when they succeed in charming their prey to the point the prey can't tell they are being conned. Even after the con is exposed, some people will refuse to change their opinion. There were people after the fall of the Third Reich who continued to believe in Hitler and the National Socialist propaganda and refused to believe evidence to the contrary. These were people who wouldn't believe that maybe the Nazi's stretched the truth a little bit.

I know for a fact that a huge portion of the US population believes Bernie Madoff was solely responsible for the fraud. There continue to be newspaper articles that are still anchored to Bernie's original message that he acted alone. The fact that plenty of Madoff employees and family members have gone to prison is totally lost on these people. Anyone who tried to prove that Bernie was a fraud before his fall was probably just going to anger people and look like a kook. Harry Markopolos proved that people would respond that way, but unfortunately, Markopolos was right.

I am not trying to say that anyone is Hitler or Bernie Madoff. Even if I believed that, I don't think it would be productive to say so. I am saying that populism in certain hands can be very dangerous. Certain personalities and behaviors make that risk much higher and people tend to be very bad at assessing when they are being conned.

I also believe people tend to underestimate these risks in spite of historical precedent. If the risks were not underestimated, then despots would not be so successful at using populism early in their rise to power. Plus we in the US and Canada (and many other countries) were blessed with only relatively mild innocuous forms of populism for a long period. If we had recent experience with populism in its worst forms, experience that some other nations have, we would likely be much more wary. In fact the mere fact that we have the wealth and luxury to spend time reading and posting on this board is probably extremely highly correlated with not being a recent victim of the worst examples of populism gone awry.

Saying that there is no risk to populism in the wrong hands is like saying that there is no risk of real estate prices falling in 2006. Just because there hasn't been a horrible recent domestic experience does not mean there is no risk.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2019, 12:19:30 PM by Read the Footnotes »

cubsfan

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1964
Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #57 on: February 10, 2019, 12:14:40 PM »
I think you've lost sight of the fact that we live in a free country where free speech is sacred and protected.
The Nazi's did not have free speech or a bill of rights for the individual.

Gregmal, Cardboard and I can call Ocasio-Cortez an idiot, quite freely, and help to keep her in check with reasonable arguments
and no free of retribution. The Brownshirts are not going to show up at our door - beat us up or murder us.

You can freely call Trump a racist and an idiot, etc - without those fears as well. You have a megaphone, called free speech, that
you can use to advance your argument.

We can all disagree and yell at each other on this board - and it gets emotional and tense - but we try to convince others of our positions freely.
Democracy is ugly and messy sometimes - and you may not like my position, and I may not like yours - but it's better than violence.

That is not Germany before the Nazi's. Congress can keep Trump in check - if they feel they need to. They can respond to his State of the Union
without being blacked out by the propaganda minister. Then you have the courts to keep both the President and Congress in check.
Insuring your individual bill of rights.

IF you are a conman - I can destroy you with a powerful argument, so long as I can convince you of the merits.

What we have to be careful of - is the feeling that the "elites" know what is better for "Joe six pack" than Joe does.
That is where the populist comes in - goes directly to Joe - and bypasses the know-it-all elites.
And the political elites HATE IT. 


« Last Edit: February 10, 2019, 12:19:18 PM by cubsfan »

LC

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4774
Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #58 on: February 10, 2019, 12:22:24 PM »
Just some thoughts:

-We're a long way from self driving cars. Decade-plus. Truckers will be fine for the time being.
-On AI in general - it is a real possibility that a lot of traditional jobs may not exist. Combined with a falling cost of human capital and this is not a good trend for the average person.
-Populism is "bad" because the underlying policies only are promoted because they're popular - not because they are reasonable based on their merits.
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
akam| brk.b | goog | irm | lyv | net | nlsn | pm | ssd | t | tfsl | v | wfc | xom

LC

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4774
Re: Ocasio Cortez Plan 'economic security for those unwilling to work'
« Reply #59 on: February 10, 2019, 12:29:51 PM »
Quote
What we have to be careful of - is the feeling that the "elites" know what is better for "Joe six pack" than Joe does.
What's the evidence for that?

As you rightly said, we live in a free country.

"Joe six pack" has been free to lean whatever skills, invest however he wants, for the history of this country.

And yet - we have seen the "elites" earn more income, control more assets, grow richer and more powerful, and on an increasing trend.

So maybe over the last 50-60 years, "Joe six pack" didn't know better?
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
akam| brk.b | goog | irm | lyv | net | nlsn | pm | ssd | t | tfsl | v | wfc | xom