...
Don't forget about the "super-spreader" Trump - always someone to blame!
Cubsfan,
You may remember a discussion of the virus using the Trojan Horse analogy. The 'experience' in Canada has been variable. BC (Viking) and Eastern Canada (cwericb) have done very well because they accepted the gift but contained the spread. Those regions may have been endowed with pre-existing positive predispositions and and luck may have played a role but they did very well with the factors that they could control. My province (central Canada) has shown results comparable to the US (overall deaths etc) and, somehow, in my area, there is very little appetite for humble and constructive efforts at cause(s) comprehension. Most people are suggesting to extend and to pretend which i find perplexing.
Anyways, from a pure spread point of view, using various inputs including genomic data, and simply focusing mechanically on the proximate cause aspect, most of the viral spread, in my province, came from viruses originating from China, travelling to Europe and making its way into my province mostly through various New York area transits.
Looking at official data for immediate source of spread (there is a degree of uncertainty here), most new cases in Canada (except Prince Edward Island) arise from the community and not from international exposure.
Allowing community spread has been tried using various strategies and results have been disappointing especially when the message is delayed, unclear, inconsistent and poorly coordinated. Scotland recently published an interesting report (to try to guide a sensible and graduated re-opening strategy) which included a graph (see below) estimating the sources of community spread and i would submit that it's a reasonable template for all regions that have been characterized by persistent spread. It may be useful info for you if you wonder about mask wearing or about where you should spend your leisure time (you can better adjust your behaviors if you want to (or don't want to) catch the virus).
