Author Topic: Probability of Trump fleeing the U.S. before January 20, 2021 and where?  (Read 3229 times)

LearningMachine

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18 U.S.C. 1001(a) provides for five years of imprisonment for each false statement made to the government.  For someone who is not the President or a crony, prosecutions under the statute happen often without making it big news in the media.

To prevent prosecution, I had mentioned earlier that for Trump, winning this election might be more important than life and death, because he knows how many false statements to the government he has made and advice he must be getting from counsel regarding this.  Trump has very little to lose by trying to violate more laws to try to stay in office, and he will try. However, if he sees that there is no chance of it working, there is a probability that he will flee. 

I'm curious what folks think is the probability of that event, and the likely country he will flee to?

Because the presidency terminates on Jan 20, 2021 if he doesn't win the election according to the 20th Amendment to the Constitution (regardless of what Trump might say), he will probably try to flee before then.  There is a possibility prosecutors might try to get an injunction from him being able to flee ahead of that.

Hold behold, Trump is now mentioning the same thing in public that he might leave the country if Biden wins, and articles are starting to pop up in media about several prosecutions having been stayed during the term of presidency.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2020, 03:43:37 PM by LearningMachine »


cubsfan

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Re: Probability of Trump fleeing the U.S. before January 20, 2021 and where?
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2020, 03:43:35 PM »
^ Lock him up! 

LearningMachine

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Re: Probability of Trump fleeing the U.S. before January 20, 2021 and where?
« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2020, 03:47:40 PM »
If he does flee, my guess is he will pick a country that will not extradite him back to the U.S.

I hope he doesn't flee to his dictator friends in Russia or North Korea and use all the secrets he knows against the U.S.  That would be pretty scary.   The probability is non-zero of that scenario happening.

cubsfan

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Re: Probability of Trump fleeing the U.S. before January 20, 2021 and where?
« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2020, 03:53:20 PM »
He loves Kim Jong-un - so you can figure he'll flee to North Korea where he can build a Trump Tower and live happily ever after.

Cardboard

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Re: Probability of Trump fleeing the U.S. before January 20, 2021 and where?
« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2020, 03:58:39 PM »
Did Obounga get locked up for: "You can keep your doctor?"

Orchestrating a cover up of Libya ambassador killing?

Then most probably for lying about his true birth place?

Cardboard

Gregmal

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Re: Probability of Trump fleeing the U.S. before January 20, 2021 and where?
« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2020, 04:00:43 PM »
According to the bookies, there is a greater chance Joe Biden drops out before the election, than Trump. Hoebag Harris is +15000, and you can take Pence for +17000. I will inquire about odds on fleeing before Jan 2021. With the NYP story Joe might flee too! Who knows? Nothing like a good conspiracy theory/fantastical story though, I agree.

LearningMachine

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Re: Probability of Trump fleeing the U.S. before January 20, 2021 and where?
« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2020, 04:08:16 PM »
According to the bookies, there is a greater chance Joe Biden drops out before the election, than Trump. Hoebag Harris is +15000, and you can take Pence for +17000. I will inquire about odds on fleeing before Jan 2021. With the NYP story Joe might flee too! Who knows? Nothing like a good conspiracy theory/fantastical story though, I agree.

I don't see how Joe's story in NYP violates 18 USC 1031(a).  Trump's crony Barr has already looked into it and decided there is nothing he can prosecute.

On the other hand with Trump, looks like there are clear tax forms filled out where he had wrong values that can be clearly proven to be different from real values, and meet the bar for prosecution.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2020, 04:11:36 PM by LearningMachine »

cubsfan

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Re: Probability of Trump fleeing the U.S. before January 20, 2021 and where?
« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2020, 04:17:12 PM »
^ You keep working on it Learning Machine - you're on to hoax #15 or #16 - one of these days you'll get the Teflon-Donald!!

Gregmal

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Re: Probability of Trump fleeing the U.S. before January 20, 2021 and where?
« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2020, 04:32:36 PM »
Learningmachine, if Im remembering you correctly, you've done some quality work on a few of the office REITs...how do you value private assets? You and I both know the answer to this. Fair values are usually ranges, and sensitive to inputs and also of course, market movements. Everything it seems Trump does from an accounting and finance perspective, seems very aggressive but very par for the course when it comes to the RE folks. Maybe it appears his values are off...tell me, as a prosecutor...where's you angle? He used replacement value instead of an NOI derived figure? He used too aggressive a cap rate? He used an old appraisal? There's very little that sticks in terms of proving anything that puts him behind bars, even if everyone "knows" what game he was playing.

Viking

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Re: Probability of Trump fleeing the U.S. before January 20, 2021 and where?
« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2020, 05:42:28 PM »
The possible outcomes on any number of topics/issues we will see on election day and after are interesting to think about. Trump or Biden win? Clear cut result or disputed? If disputed, how disputed?

If Trump loses that is where things get wickedly interesting. What does he do? Does he flee to another country? (Hadnít thought about that one). Does he resign / get pardoned by Pence before new President is sworn in? What is Trumpís role in Republican party in defeat? How does Republican party establishment respond? Do they try and kick Trump to the curb?

Once Biden is sworn in (assuming he wins) what is Trumpís role in national politics? Will Trump be even more vocal with the shackles of government removed? Will Trump be even more influential/revered with his core base of support? Will Trump be even more of a disruptive force as a private citizen?

There is a case to be made that in defeat Trump will continue to hold enormous power. He might not need to flee :-)

PS: and the next Presidential election is only 4 short years away! What are the odds Trump runs again in 4 years if he loses this election?
« Last Edit: October 17, 2020, 05:45:38 PM by Viking »