Author Topic: Re: Klarman worried about political divide  (Read 14606 times)

Gregmal

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Re: Klarman worried about political divide
« Reply #100 on: January 24, 2019, 06:56:11 AM »
LOL at the people saying we should respect economists... As already mentioned, with other professions, there are exact metrics by which to judge. Economists are basically high end weathermen. If anything I compare them to stock analysts. Guys who would be running money rather than writing book reports; if they were any good at it. But when they aren't knowing the talking points and sounding academic helps...


JSArbitrage

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Re: Klarman worried about political divide
« Reply #101 on: January 24, 2019, 08:04:10 AM »
"My best approach?  If it's not your wheel house, leave it to the experts. "

So basically leave the decision to somebody because they have the solution but, the solution is unknown.


No, you leave it to somebody else because that somebody else is a pool of the brightest minds trying to understand a topic.   You are making a basic epistemological mistake.  The right question isn't: "Are Ivy League economists wrong sometimes?" Yes, they are.  The right question is: "Do you have a better pool of knowledge from which to make a conclusion?"  The answer is no.

In other words, just because doctors make mistakes sometimes DOESN'T mean you should start practicing medicine on yourself (or others.)  It also doesn't mean embrace the local witch doctor.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2019, 08:13:23 AM by JSArbitrage »

JSArbitrage

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Re: Klarman worried about political divide
« Reply #102 on: January 24, 2019, 08:11:44 AM »
BTW - Larry Kudlow is an economist.

No, he isn't.  He got a degree in history and joined an iBank as an analyst.  He then quickly became TV host (which is what he has been doing for the last 40 years.)  I have both (a) more education in economics and (b) more experience in the fields of economics than Kudlow AND I don't think I should be even close to considered an economist.  Has Kudlow published a single thing in economics?  I am not aware of anything (but I am no Kudlow expert.) 


Tim Eriksen

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Re: Klarman worried about political divide
« Reply #103 on: January 24, 2019, 08:12:04 AM »
Tim that simply does not convince me. To me it is a tax on 120K of income for benefits that almost all citizens receive. I think the benefit should be counted as income in any analysis, but I don't see how the paper we are referencing did not do so. Additionally, the study used IRS tax receipts which would have counted such benefits in most cases. Whether it is counted as income or a negative tax is inconsequential. Your other contentions may be true but still does not change the fact that it is a tax. Or do you propose we itemize every public benefit and only count the ones which the wealthy receive "adequate" utility, and attribute a portion of their tax bill towards those items?

It seems you have arrived at your conclusion before studying the issue.   You believe the bottom 50% who pay no income tax are now bearing an increased burden of paying federal taxes.   Please read that last sentence a few times. 

Cardboard

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Re: Klarman worried about political divide
« Reply #104 on: January 24, 2019, 08:20:28 AM »
Good points Tombgrt.

I really do believe that vaccines and other things that Gates/Buffett do are really good for the world. These people are much poorer and much more in need than even the lowest income folks in any Western country.

However, this long term thinking or greater good does not seem to fit well with the concept of some who want to tax the rich now or more honestly take their wealth away and have representatives decide where to deploy it.

If you had taxed heavily their income or really wealth appreciation, these guys would never have amassed these sums. Now, that they have wealth beyond what they could ever dream of spending, they feel necessary to give it away and are even encouraging others to do so. More than that, they now have the means to truly make an impact while a few billions would not go very far.

So what should be done? Take money from the rich early on and redistribute local. Or leave more to them so they could do more later with it? We could also ask the question of local vs international on the latter.

It becomes a philosophical question.

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MarkS

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Re: Klarman worried about political divide
« Reply #105 on: January 24, 2019, 08:27:14 AM »
BTW - Larry Kudlow is an economist.

No, he isn't.  He got a degree in history and joined an iBank as an analyst.  He then quickly became TV host (which is what he has been doing for the last 40 years.)  I have both (a) more education in economics and (b) more experience in the fields of economics than Kudlow AND I don't think I should be even close to considered an economist.  Has Kudlow published a single thing in economics?  I am not aware of anything (but I am no Kudlow expert.)

I don't know how you define economist.  From where I sit these jobs qualify Kudlow as an economist:

Staff economist for the Federal reserve
Chief economist for Bear Stearns
Office of management and budget as associate director of economics and planning
Economist for National Review




Gregmal

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Re: Klarman worried about political divide
« Reply #106 on: January 24, 2019, 10:04:00 AM »
BTW - Larry Kudlow is an economist.

No, he isn't.  He got a degree in history and joined an iBank as an analyst.  He then quickly became TV host (which is what he has been doing for the last 40 years.)  I have both (a) more education in economics and (b) more experience in the fields of economics than Kudlow AND I don't think I should be even close to considered an economist.  Has Kudlow published a single thing in economics?  I am not aware of anything (but I am no Kudlow expert.)

I don't know how you define economist.  From where I sit these jobs qualify Kudlow as an economist:

Staff economist for the Federal reserve
Chief economist for Bear Stearns
Office of management and budget as associate director of economics and planning
Economist for National Review

Economists are very much like university professors holding PHD's, with their self appointed positions of grandeur. The same way those bozos demand to be called Dr., just because they decided to spend extra time in school learning literature, economists think the fact they have degrees make them more worth of credibility than people who went out and did something useful.

Cardboard

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Re: Klarman worried about political divide
« Reply #107 on: January 24, 2019, 10:08:00 AM »
But Gregmal, we are making a basic epistemological mistake. We should not think nor comment on these things and leave these very important decisions to the experts such as Ms. Ocasio-Cortez. We are just uneducated dummies...

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LC

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Re: Klarman worried about political divide
« Reply #108 on: January 24, 2019, 10:43:39 AM »
Tim, Mark,

I would refer you to the following paper on the Income Distribution between National Accounts
https://www.nber.org/papers/w22945.pdf

Specifically the discussion on taxes and transfers (p28-29).
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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LC

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Re: Klarman worried about political divide
« Reply #109 on: January 24, 2019, 10:49:32 AM »
So what should be done? Take money from the rich early on and redistribute local. Or leave more to them so they could do more later with it? We could also ask the question of local vs international on the latter.

The risk of "leaving it till later" or "kicking the can down the road" is that this allows the possibility for a few individuals or corporations to utilize social/public structures (employee health, for example) without limit for years so they can compound as much capital as possible, and then society must hope those individuals want to fix these now-destroyed public structures.

There is an alternative possibility of sustainable growth, where the needs of the many do not depend on the whimsical generosity of the few.
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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