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Sanders Presidency - A thought experiment

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Vish_ram:
Lets keep the politics aside. I know 99.99% of folks in this forum don't support him or his policies. What if he becomes the POTUS?

what is the impact to the economy & market?

1) Medicare for All
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Create a Medicare for All, single-payer, national health insurance program to provide everyone in America with comprehensive health care coverage, free at the point of service.
No networks, no premiums, no deductibles, no copays, no surprise bills.
Medicare coverage will be expanded and improved to include: include dental, hearing, vision, and home- and community-based long-term care, in-patient and out-patient services, mental health and substance abuse treatment, reproductive and maternity care, prescription drugs, and more.
Stop the pharmaceutical industry from ripping off the American people by making sure that no one in America pays over $200 a year for the medicine they need by capping what Americans pay for prescription drugs under Medicare for All.
===============
Impact: Will all HMO's just shut down? Pharma is based on spending (gambling) billions on R&D with hope of getting some drugs approved. An approved drug subsidizes 100 other failed drugs.


2) Green new deal
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Transform our energy system to 100 percent renewable energy and create 20 million jobs needed to solve the climate crisis.
Ensure a just transition for communities and workers, including fossil fuel workers.
Ensure justice for frontline communities, especially under-resourced groups, communities of color, Native Americans, people with disabilities, children and the elderly.
Save American families money with investments in weatherization, public transportation, modern infrastructure and high-speed broadband.
Commit to reducing emissions throughout the world, including providing $200 billion to the Green Climate Fund, rejoining the Paris Agreement, and reasserting the United States’ leadership in the global fight against climate change.
Invest in conservation and public lands to heal our soils, forests, and prairie lands.
End the greed of the fossil fuel industry and hold them accountable.
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Impact to gas prices.

3) Student loan
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Guarantee tuition and debt-free public colleges, universities, HBCUs, Minority Serving Institutions and trade-schools to all.
Cancel all student loan debt for the some 45 million Americans who owe about $1.6 trillion and place a cap on student loan interest rates going forward at 1.88 percent.
Invest $1.3 billion every year in private, non-profit historically black colleges and universities and minority-serving institutions
End equity gaps in higher education attainment. And ensure students are able to cover non-tuition costs of attending school by: expanding Pell Grants to cover non-tuition and fee costs, tripling funding for the Work-Study Program, and more.
===============
Impact to for-profit colleges, student loan companies etc

4) Expand social security
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Expand Social Security benefits for all recipients and protect pensions.
Guarantee home and community based long-term care services.
Protect our most vulnerable seniors by quadrupling funding for the Older Americans Act and expanding other programs seniors rely on.
Expand and train the direct care workforce we need.
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Not even sure what this entails.

There are dozen other initiatives like "eliminate all medical debt" etc.

It is safe to say that there is an economic impact to every single person living in US. There will be some winners and losers.

a) Will deficit spending cause inflation? Gold may be the beneficiary
b) Capital may flee to safe havens. Loss of jobs & vicious cycle starts

Democratic socialism aint bad; Look at Norway, Denmark..
The transition from crony predatory capitalism to Democratic socialism will surely be ugly.

Jurgis:
Despite what Trump thinks and is trying to condition people to think, US president is not an all powerful dictator.

Most of the policies you mentioned won't become reality even if Sanders becomes president.


--- Quote from: Vish_ram on February 25, 2020, 08:51:13 AM ---I know 99.99% of folks in this forum don't support him or his policies.

--- End quote ---

It's good to know things.  ::)

LC:
Agree with Jurgis that most of Sanders' policies will probably be watered down in the event he wins election.

Hypothetically:

Healthcare - reduced healthcare costs will provide a benefit to consumers and corporations no longer paying this "rent"
Education - reduced consumer interest payments provide a consumer benefit, eventually see outsized tuitions fall which will hurt school endowments (portfolio sales?) and administrator salaries. Probably see these schools look for alternative ways to raise revenues.
Energy - I doubt there will be an impact. Perhaps continued tax breaks for solar/wind but I DOUBT we will be moving off gas anytime soon.
Social security - Increased tax on consumers which is a large net negative; but if healthcare costs truly come down per (1) I am not sure a large social security increase will be needed, as a large part of the elderly expenses is healthcare. So it may be offsetting.

ERICOPOLY:
Will there be a salary cap for doctors with an attendant wave of repossessed cars and foreclosures?

Beyond pay for doctors, a lot of people would lose their jobs outright.  My wife, for example, works in human resources at a large healthcare company. 

DTEJD1997:
Hey all:

I think the markets would go down bigly.

I know there would be inflation.  How are we going to pay for everything?  Earn the money?  Borrow the money?  How about simply print it?  Heck we are almost there already.  Expand the Federal budget 10x, we would have to start printing.

Gasoline prices would go up tremendously.  Fracking & offshore drilling ended or SEVERELY curtailed.  We would probably have to start importing oil again.

There most likely would be changes to our form of government.  With that much change going on, people who are losing their wealth, livelihood, jobs, and so on might object.  Civil unrest?

I think there would be lots of losers, hard to say who would be the winner (other than high end government officials).

I also think there would be lots of 2nd and 3rd order effects that nobody can think of at this point.

 

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