Author Topic: The Obamas  (Read 6809 times)

Cigarbutt

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Re: The Obamas
« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2018, 12:09:08 PM »
^Perhaps the "delay" is a key feature.

Moving along the demographic cohorts, people delay more and more the marriage decision (which likely improves the odds of a successful "match"?).
Also, the decision to have kids is also delayed with birth rates falling across the board except for older cohorts (age 35+), a phenomenon BTW explaining the increasing demand for fertility treatments.

I would argue that "having less children" may not be a factor behind lower divorce rates because statistics clearly show that having children has a significant negative correlation with divorce rates.
There is a cause and effect issue here:
-is having children a negative risk factor for divorce?
-is it that couples that would have otherwise divorced stay together because of children?

But whichever is right, the numbers I've seen do not suggest that having children is a separate positive risk factor for divorce. Having children can certainly act as a trigger though, meaning that it accelerates a process that may not have been "recognized". So delaying the decision for having children may be wise. But then, families will tend to get smaller as demographic data shows.

There is another interesting aspect to this. It is often said (studies) that married people are happier and live longer. While statistically true, these statements often result in interpretations of a cause and effect which is possibly wrong as it may be a simple correlation ie there may be "other" independent factors explaining why being happy, living longer and getting married tend to correlate. Statistics showing increasing divorce rates with second, third, etc marriages would tend to support the latter.


LC

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Re: The Obamas
« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2018, 01:16:31 PM »
On the other hand, the concept of a "band-aid baby" is a real thing.
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SharperDingaan

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Re: The Obamas
« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2018, 02:13:07 PM »
Keep in mind that you don't need to be married, and you don't need to be in a relationship to have kids.
There are many couples with kids that choose to live 'common law' instead. There are also many women who would have liked to have had kids, but left it too late - speaking to the next generations.

In NA there's also the growing phenomenon of smart women and dumb guys. There are quite a few universities, and colleges, where the female student population is now > 50% of the male population. And quite a few situations where the female is now also the higher earner going into a child-bearing relationship. Just a different way of doing way of doing things.

All good.

SD

 

Cigarbutt

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Re: The Obamas
« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2018, 04:16:19 PM »
On the other hand, the concept of a "band-aid baby" is a real thing.
Good point LC, certainly in some cases. Humility and flexibility required.

Fine-tuning on your comment, when taking into account the #1 reason for divorce, lack of commitment is described and a baby, band-aid or otherwise, clearly requires a different and more profound commitment so, I guess, a potential game-changer. Another major reason mentioned is conflict and personal incompatibility, in which case I doubt that a baby will alleviate the issue. Also, very much up there, in terms of motivation to file, is a specific situation which is related to the biological drive behind baby formation. For that cheating aspect, I'll let Dennis Quaid formulate it in a way that may suit the opening poster:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoUVO9BoWE4

Gregmal

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Re: The Obamas
« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2018, 05:23:39 PM »
Getting into "irreconcilable differences"... isn't this just another way of saying you were wrong in the first place? I've always found that committed people, like the Obamas for instance, work through it because they don't view failure as an option. Whereas the most common element I've seen in the "irreconcilable differences" camp, is the Wolf of Wall Street depiction... Two people who fit, get married. One person changes, for better or for worse, and then renegs... That's different. It's much rarer Id imagine to find two normal people just grow old and tired of each other if they were truly a good match in the first place.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2018, 05:26:17 PM by Gregmal »

DooDiligence

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Re: The Obamas
« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2018, 06:56:19 PM »
Michelle Obama is looking particularly good tonight on 20/20.

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rkbabang

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Re: The Obamas
« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2018, 06:40:35 AM »
Even with the baby boomers it wasn't as bad as the "50% of marriages end in divorce" statement makes it sound.   I'm too lazy to look this all up again, but I read something once that broke it down.  Most 1st marriages do not end in divorce.   Most people who get divorced  once are extremely likely to get divorced twice or more.    So someone who gets married and stays married has only 1 marriage which does not end in divorce, but someone who has been divorced 4 times has had 4 marriages which all ended in divorce.    In other words it is the same small group of people getting divorced over and over which account for the 50% of marriages statistic.  Most marriages end in divorce, but the vast majority of people who get married stay married.

« Last Edit: November 12, 2018, 06:46:25 AM by rkbabang »


rkbabang

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Re: The Obamas
« Reply #18 on: November 12, 2018, 07:54:22 AM »
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/upshot/the-divorce-surge-is-over-but-the-myth-lives-on.html
https://flowingdata.com/2016/03/30/divorce-rates-for-different-groups/

Here's another one:
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/heart-the-matter/201704/do-half-all-marriages-really-end-in-divorce


"The truth is, the average couple getting married today has more like a 75 percent chance of staying married. That means that only about 1 in 4 recent marriages are likely to end in divorce.

"if you are entering into a second or third marriage, you face an approximately 75 percent chance of getting divorced, or possibly higher."

"If you have divorced before, you are statistically more likely to do it again. If your partner has also divorced before, then (as you might imagine) your joint risk of divorce is even higher. Studies show that those who consider divorce a viable option are more likely to choose it when times get tough. In addition, those who have previously divorced have ex-husbands and/or ex-wives, and often children from those earlier marriages in their circle. These additional people, and the issues they bring with them, can be "baggage" that puts a strain on a new relationship."


DTEJD1997

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Re: The Obamas
« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2018, 08:40:07 AM »
Keep in mind that you don't need to be married, and you don't need to be in a relationship to have kids.
There are many couples with kids that choose to live 'common law' instead. There are also many women who would have liked to have had kids, but left it too late - speaking to the next generations.

In NA there's also the growing phenomenon of smart women and dumb guys. There are quite a few universities, and colleges, where the female student population is now > 50% of the male population. And quite a few situations where the female is now also the higher earner going into a child-bearing relationship. Just a different way of doing way of doing things.

All good.

SD

I would be cautious in assuming that women are "smarter" than men just because at some schools they are over 50% of the enrolled students.

I could counter with an argument that the women are actually "more stupider" from the simple fact that more of them are choosing the path of "higher education".

A shocking amount of education & degrees in the USA are simply no good or even have a negative value.  So once again, the women are being taken advantage of.

Obviously this is not the case in every instance...but I think the general population would be shocked at how much the value of a college degree has declined.