Author Topic: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day  (Read 7425 times)

Viking

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US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« on: September 27, 2020, 11:27:30 AM »
As we get closer to the US election i thought it would be useful to create a thread to capture what is going on with respect to the rules by state. Some countries, like Canada, national election are managed across the country by one body so the process is pretty straight forward leading up to and deciding a winner on election night.

In the US the 50 states each do their own thing. And the virus adds more complexity with many more people choosing to mail in their ballot. And one more wrinkle? The exact process is not set in stone given the many legal challenges happening. I thought it would be useful to start a thread to explain how the actual election is going to work and how it may play out in November. As much as possible please post source material to support your thinking :-)

As an investor i am getting more interested in understanding what might happen on election night. So many possibilities. As the article below indicates it will likely be a very messy process and take a week or longer to decide a winner.

Why Four Pivotal Swing States Likely Won’t Be Called On Election Night
- https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-north-carolina-likely-wont-be-called-on-election-night/

The 2020 election is already underway in several states, but that doesn’t mean the rules aren’t still changing. (We’re tracking them all here.) In the past eight days alone, four important swing states have tentatively extended the deadline by which mail ballots must be received.
- The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that ballots can arrive as late as Nov. 6 and still count as long as no evidence (e.g., a postmark) exists that they were mailed after Election Day (Nov. 3).
A state judge in Michigan decreed that ballots can be counted as long as they are postmarked by the day before the election (Nov. 2) and received by Nov. 17.
- A federal judge ordered Wisconsin to count absentee ballots that are postmarked by Nov. 3 as long as they arrive by Nov. 9.
- And North Carolina reached a tentative court settlement with plaintiffs that, among other things, would allow ballots to count as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3 and arrive by Nov. 12. (However, the settlement still needs to be approved by a judge before it officially goes into effect.)

Importantly, however, these changes aren’t set in stone; Republicans may continue to contest them in court. At the very least, GOP legislative leaders in Wisconsin have already appealed that decision to the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, and Republicans say they plan to take the Pennsylvania decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Articles Conclusion:
If Biden is leading in those states in the wee hours of Nov. 4, that may be the ballgame: Because mail ballots are expected to lean heavily Democratic, his margin will probably only increase as more mail ballots are counted. But if Trump is leading in these states, we could be in for days of waiting on the edge of our seat for every ballot dump. Since this is a distinct possibility, we must continue to prepare ourselves for a world in which we won’t know the identity of the next president until mid-November.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2020, 11:39:03 AM by Viking »


Gregmal

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Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2020, 12:55:23 PM »
As we get closer to the US election i thought it would be useful to create a thread to capture what is going on with respect to the rules by state. Some countries, like Canada, national election are managed across the country by one body so the process is pretty straight forward leading up to and deciding a winner on election night.

In the US the 50 states each do their own thing. And the virus adds more complexity with many more people choosing to mail in their ballot. And one more wrinkle? The exact process is not set in stone given the many legal challenges happening. I thought it would be useful to start a thread to explain how the actual election is going to work and how it may play out in November. As much as possible please post source material to support your thinking :-)

As an investor i am getting more interested in understanding what might happen on election night. So many possibilities. As the article below indicates it will likely be a very messy process and take a week or longer to decide a winner.

Why Four Pivotal Swing States Likely Won’t Be Called On Election Night
- https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-north-carolina-likely-wont-be-called-on-election-night/

The 2020 election is already underway in several states, but that doesn’t mean the rules aren’t still changing. (We’re tracking them all here.) In the past eight days alone, four important swing states have tentatively extended the deadline by which mail ballots must be received.
- The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that ballots can arrive as late as Nov. 6 and still count as long as no evidence (e.g., a postmark) exists that they were mailed after Election Day (Nov. 3).
A state judge in Michigan decreed that ballots can be counted as long as they are postmarked by the day before the election (Nov. 2) and received by Nov. 17.
- A federal judge ordered Wisconsin to count absentee ballots that are postmarked by Nov. 3 as long as they arrive by Nov. 9.
- And North Carolina reached a tentative court settlement with plaintiffs that, among other things, would allow ballots to count as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3 and arrive by Nov. 12. (However, the settlement still needs to be approved by a judge before it officially goes into effect.)

Importantly, however, these changes aren’t set in stone; Republicans may continue to contest them in court. At the very least, GOP legislative leaders in Wisconsin have already appealed that decision to the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, and Republicans say they plan to take the Pennsylvania decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Articles Conclusion:
If Biden is leading in those states in the wee hours of Nov. 4, that may be the ballgame: Because mail ballots are expected to lean heavily Democratic, his margin will probably only increase as more mail ballots are counted. But if Trump is leading in these states, we could be in for days of waiting on the edge of our seat for every ballot dump. Since this is a distinct possibility, we must continue to prepare ourselves for a world in which we won’t know the identity of the next president until mid-November.


I understand the point you are trying to make, but overall, I think the bold shows the success of the propaganda machines. If Biden is leading on election night, its game over. If Trump is leading, we still need to wait for a real outcome. Essentially, the ground work has been laid to completely delegitimize a Trump victory. For a second time.

cubsfan

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Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2020, 01:13:07 PM »
^ Yep - here we go again.

The amount of voter fraud that is being reported via ballot harvesting, etc is quite alarming.

It's clear that mail in balloting is something the systems of our country (Post office, etc) are nor ready for.
Using old lists, with dead or moved voters, and mailing those out so they pile up at apartment building, etc - so they can be fraudulently returned.

The Democrats are scared and know EXACTLY what they are doing.

LC

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Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2020, 01:24:20 PM »
Quote
The amount of voter fraud that is being reported via ballot harvesting, etc is quite alarming.

Provide evidence.
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Viking

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Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2020, 01:44:04 PM »
Greg, i am not trying to make a point with the article. What your take away is up to you. As more articles and links are provided we should be able to get a more complete picture of all the variables at play.

Guys, please provide links/facts to support your concerns. Greg, my understanding is it is generally believed that it is more likely that Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans. The reason, and this is important, is because of repeated Trump’s concerns about mail in fraud. He has been telling Republicans that voting by mail is terrible and so it makes sense many Republican voters would decide not to do it. This is not to say that no Republican voters will Vote by mail. Just that Democrats mail in votes will likely be > 50%. We will learn after the election if this was true or not.

Now if this line of reasoning is faulty please explain why?

« Last Edit: September 27, 2020, 02:04:49 PM by Viking »

LC

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Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2020, 01:57:23 PM »
Quote
Guys, please provide links/facts to support your concerns

Quote
it is more likely that Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans

This is the key point, what is your evidence?

Some resources to help you out:

https://electionupdates.caltech.edu/2020/03/20/some-demographics-on-voting-by-mail/
https://www.wired.com/story/weird-partisan-math-vote-by-mail/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/25/us/vote-by-mail-coronavirus.html
« Last Edit: September 27, 2020, 01:59:05 PM by LC »
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Viking

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Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2020, 02:05:20 PM »
This article (first one i found when i looked) suggests mail in voting does not = higher turnout for either party. It does suggest Democrats MAY be more likely to vote by mail because they trust it and do not want to vote in person due to the virus. Republicans MAY be less likely to vote my mail because they do not trust it and they are less concerned about the virus and voting in person.

If this is true it means Republicans COULD see peak numbers (%) on election night. And as more mail ballots are counted, Democrat % COULD increase in the days after the election. But after all votes are counted (in person and by mail) neither party has an advantage. But it could take a week or two. To count all the votes.

—————————-
Do Republicans or Democrats benefit from mail-in voting? It turns out, neither
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/do-republicans-or-democrats-benefit-mail-voting-it-turns-out-neither

“It’s possible, Barber says, that Republican rhetoric could depress vote by mail among their members and cause a partisan split. “The problem is that Donald Trump has created a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.”

There are already signs that this is happening. In Florida, requests for mail-in ballots are usually evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, says Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida. This year, 2 million Florida Democrats had requested mail ballots as of 25 August, compared with 1.375 million Republicans, according to a website McDonald runs that tracks mail ballot trends. Add to that the uneven ways in which mail-in voting is being rolled out in different states, and McDonald is at a loss to predict how it will influence the election outcome. “It’s completely uncharted territory,” he says.

There’s also the possibility that Republican reluctance to use mail-in ballots will be offset by Democrats’ avoidance of polling places. In a Texas primary in June, Democratic use of mail-in ballots skyrocketed. But the increase was canceled out by more Republicans voting in person, according to a preprint study by Hall and other Stanford researchers not yet published in a journal. “They’re voting by different modes,” he says. “But they’re not voting more or less.”
« Last Edit: September 27, 2020, 02:16:46 PM by Viking »

cubsfan

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Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2020, 05:03:31 PM »
Quote
The amount of voter fraud that is being reported via ballot harvesting, etc is quite alarming.

Provide evidence.

Guys - do yourselves a favor - broaden your sources.

Try reading Breitbart News, Daily Wire, Saraacarter.com, and National Review - EVERY DAY.
Read them EVERY DAY. Look at the last 60 days - you will find LOTS of instances of MAIL IN voter fraud being reported.

If you tell me - "oh those are conservative websites, so I can't believe them" - then I can not help you.

The great thing about the "free press" is that these truthtellers are out there reporting shit that does NOT fit the narrative of the MSM
and REMAINS UNREPORTED.

If I have time, I will repost - but in the meantime - broaden your horizons and sources and then make a judgement on the stories yourselves.

Please DON'T take my word for it. You are all brilliant analysts - so DON'T believe me.

Viking

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Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2020, 05:12:47 PM »
Quote
The amount of voter fraud that is being reported via ballot harvesting, etc is quite alarming.

Provide evidence.

Guys - do yourselves a favor - broaden your sources.

Try reading Breitbart News, Daily Wire, Saraacarter.com, and National Review - EVERY DAY.
Read them EVERY DAY. Look at the last 60 days - you will find LOTS of instances of MAIL IN voter fraud being reported.

If you tell me - "oh those are conservative websites, so I can't believe them" - then I can not help you.

The great thing about the "free press" is that these truthtellers are out there reporting shit that does NOT fit the narrative of the MSM
and REMAINS UNREPORTED.

If I have time, I will repost - but in the meantime - broaden your horizons and sources and then make a judgement on the stories yourselves.

Please DON'T take my word for it. You are all brilliant analysts - so DON'T believe me.

I think i understand. When you make a comment you want readers to go to the various news sites you posted above and try and find the article you read that backs up your position? Please correct me if i am wrong.

Another way is you could simple post a link to the article when you read it. Accurate. Simple. Educational. But if that is too complicated or if you are too busy i understand.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2020, 05:16:12 PM by Viking »

cubsfan

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Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2020, 05:22:28 PM »
^ I will do the best I can to help my fellow board members and repost.
In the meantime, I am offering a suggestion that will help. It will require an open mind - and that may be difficult for some.
And that I can not change.