Author Topic: US Federal Election - Florida  (Read 18211 times)

no_free_lunch

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US Federal Election - Florida
« on: October 30, 2020, 09:10:10 PM »
I believe that the Republicans could very well win in Florida next week.  This is not based on what I would like or some hunch but on statistics.  It all comes down to the numbers the state is releasing on early and mail in voting.  There has been a very strong trend for in-person early voters to vote Republican (46% registered republican vs 33% registered democrat).  We see the opposite in the mail-in votes and that needs to be accounted for as well.   I took the time,  I built a model, I am forecasting a very small edge to Trump.  Polls can be dammed.

If anyone is curious I could probably share the numbers.

Assuming all mail in votes are returned (there is 1.6m outstanding), my forecast is 6.95m R votes vs 6.93m D votes.  The tightest of margins but with a Republican edge.

If we assumed no more mail in votes are returned, I forecast 6.43m R, 6.25m D, or a 200k vote lead.

Republicans, please don't believe the hype, you are still in this.



We will see!


cubsfan

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Re: US Federal Election - Florida
« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2020, 04:01:06 AM »
This is worth your read: Democrat leadership worried about Black and Hispanic turnout...no enthusiasm for Biden.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/30/florida-democrats-panic-election-day-approaches-weve-got-stop-bleeding/

Democrats are expressing unease as the election enters its final stretch, acknowledging that progressives are not seeing sufficient voter turnout in Florida’s Miami-Dade — the county in which Democrats need a strong showing to flip the state blue — particularly among young, minority voters.

A Trafalgar Group survey released Thursday showed Trump leading by 2. 7 percent, within the survey’s margin of error.

Trafalgar Poll was most accurate poll in 2016 - not that it means too much...


Cardboard

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Re: US Federal Election - Florida
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2020, 04:48:41 AM »
Contrarily to how they are being portrayed by mainstream media and Democrats, vast majority of American minorities are not looking for handouts and are proud Americans.

They work hard and try to give the best they can to their kids. I know many and that image of victims, poor, unable to achieve success doesn't sit well with them at all. And here I am talking about from all kinds of income levels.

With Trump they know that they are dealing with an ass but, at least he says it like it is.

On the other hand you have these hypocrites who keep saying that they are the ones to take care of them but, other than keeping them in that "ghetto" of "you are different than the rest" which is shameful, really don't do squat for them. Even if he is black and for 8 years.

Now they have this old white man who prosecuted more than any on drugs, except for his son of course and this semi African-American female who certainly doesn't sound either like any black woman that I have ever heard. Add to this another fake Native in that crazy Warren biatch.

It just seems to me that this level of hypocrisy and identity politics should backfire on them.

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gfp

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Re: US Federal Election - Florida
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2020, 05:27:31 AM »
Yes, Trump is favored to win Florida. That isn’t enough to win the presidency though.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5544
https://www.predictit.org/

cubsfan

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Re: US Federal Election - Florida
« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2020, 05:45:34 AM »
^Sure it is - when he takes the Black & Hispanic vote - Biden is done.


Not good news for Biden - IF true - he loses on Tuesday:

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/29/nolte-poll-shows-black-support-trump-31-percent/

The daily Rasmussen Reports poll that tracks black support for President Donald Trump shows the president sitting at 31 percent as of Thursday, just five days before the election.

Gregmal

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Re: US Federal Election - Florida
« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2020, 05:50:01 AM »
Yea Florida isn't determining the election unless Trump losses it. He's probably gonna need to take PA.

Castanza

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Re: US Federal Election - Florida
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2020, 06:11:37 AM »
Yea Florida isn't determining the election unless Trump losses it. He's probably gonna need to take PA.

Good thing there has been thousands of ballots going missing  ;D
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Gregmal

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Re: US Federal Election - Florida
« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2020, 06:39:51 AM »
Watching the bookies rather than the polls....AZ has swung from likely modest Republican to modest Democrat during the past week. Popular vote has widened significantly for the Democrats from -450 to -900. Both bode well for Biden. This is at odds with the pollsters....who seem to be shameless covering their asses, and reigning in their figures a bit. Frankly I think any pollster off by a certain margin should be fined as their shameless tactics are definitely deliberate and a form of election interference as it is an obvious form of misinformation.

Spekulatius

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Re: US Federal Election - Florida
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2020, 06:56:13 AM »
I agree on Florida going trending the Republicans - at least the results from early voting indicate such. Other states (Especially Midwest), NC and PA seem trending towards the Democrats. US elections are never done before they are done.
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Viking

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Re: US Federal Election - Florida
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2020, 10:21:38 AM »
If the Democrats take Florida then we will see a Blue wave.

As was stated up thread, i think PA is the key state to watch. And then Arizona. If Biden wins either of these, i think he wins. Trump likely needs to win all three above to win. Possible.

There are so many moving pieces to this election it will be crazy interesting to see how it plays out.
- Turnout? Love of Trump? Hatred of Trump? Virus surge? - likely very high
- Voter suppression? Voter intimidation? - yup
- do we have a declared winner on Tuesday night? How quickly the count gets done? Mail in ballots? - unless a blue wave, likely no winner declared Tuesday night
- Disputed results? Court challenges? - unless blue wave, likely
- Refusal to step down? - no idea; would not be a surprise
- Do we see violence? Election day or afterwards? Militias? - no idea; would not be a surprise
- What does Trump do? Especially if he is the loser? - whatever is in his self interest