Author Topic: war drums  (Read 4261 times)

cherzeca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2560
war drums
« on: January 03, 2020, 07:39:46 AM »
the Quds commander hit has introduced more uncertainty to the market but my take is that the Middle East has been problematic for a long time and will be highly problematic for a long time, and the market will absorb this hit in stride. so short term a small investment event and longer term an investment nonevent (or even a plus if you think the market needed to lance some of its steam to set up for more advances).

agree or disagree? not intending to solicit political commentary, just investment analysis of situation


omagh

  • Lifetime Member
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 349
Re: war drums
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2020, 07:44:14 AM »
agree or disagree? not intending to solicit political commentary, just investment analysis of situation

Political events are just noise.  Did valuations change significantly?  No.  Analysis done.  It can be that simple.

no_free_lunch

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1633
Re: war drums
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2020, 08:07:41 AM »
I am looking at GD.  Defense company and a bit of a laggard but a former Buffet pick IIRC.  Trades around 15x earnings.

Joe689

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 264
Re: war drums
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2020, 08:08:36 AM »
Well the whole oil forward curve moved up.  So if you are a company that hedges proactively outward, yes, your valuation likely did change

DooDiligence

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2024
  • ♪ 🎶 ♫ ♪ 🎶 ♫
Re: war drums
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2020, 08:50:32 AM »
This is not pointed at anyone in particular,
instead it's a thought I had this morning
regarding this & all the other events
deemed earth shattering.

---

News is toxic 2 your body,
it increases cognitive errors,
inhibits thinking,
and wastes time.

Consumption of news is irrelevant.
Consuming less news creates big advantages 4 you.

BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.

www.theguardian.com/media/2013/apr/12/news-is-bad-rolf-dobelli

---

I just added another New Years resolution,

"minimize consumption of news & social media".

This will be a difficult impulse to defeat.
It's not about burying your head in the sand.
It's more about minimizing signal to noise.
Healthcare 21.7% - EW NVO // BRK.B - 24.2% // Auto's & Oil 14.9% - CLB GPC VDE

Banking 9.4% - WFC // Entertainment 4.7% - DIS // Drinkers & Smokers 7.6% - MO

Retail 1.8% - ULTA

---

%'s held @ MV 1/16/2020 minus 15.8% investable cash

i trumpet my ignorance

https://twitter.com/tunawish

omagh

  • Lifetime Member
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 349
Re: war drums
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2020, 10:18:32 AM »
It's more about minimizing signal to noise.
Bingo!

cherzeca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2560
Re: war drums
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2020, 11:55:27 AM »
I am trying to maximize signal to noise ratio actually.  I think the hit is something you have to pay at least some attention to as an investor, and after doing some noodling I think the hit is a net investment plus

fwiw, here is the best commentary (thread) that I have found today:

https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1213162227542495238?s=20
« Last Edit: January 03, 2020, 12:07:47 PM by cherzeca »

cubsfan

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1510
Re: war drums
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2020, 12:20:49 PM »
I am trying to maximize signal to noise ratio actually.  I think the hit is something you have to pay at least some attention to as an investor, and after doing some noodling I think the hit is a net investment plus

fwiw, here is the best commentary (thread) that I have found today:

https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1213162227542495238?s=20

excellent

oakwood42

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 28
Re: war drums
« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2020, 12:29:40 PM »
This is not pointed at anyone in particular,
instead it's a thought I had this morning
regarding this & all the other events
deemed earth shattering.

---

News is toxic 2 your body,
it increases cognitive errors,
inhibits thinking,
and wastes time.

Consumption of news is irrelevant.
Consuming less news creates big advantages 4 you.

BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.

www.theguardian.com/media/2013/apr/12/news-is-bad-rolf-dobelli

---

I just added another New Years resolution,

"minimize consumption of news & social media".

This will be a difficult impulse to defeat.
It's not about burying your head in the sand.
It's more about minimizing signal to noise.

+1

Spekulatius

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3756
Re: war drums
« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2020, 03:46:56 PM »
I am trying to maximize signal to noise ratio actually.  I think the hit is something you have to pay at least some attention to as an investor, and after doing some noodling I think the hit is a net investment plus

fwiw, here is the best commentary (thread) that I have found today:

https://twitter.com/ksadjadpour/status/1213162227542495238?s=20

Does killing one person, even if he is a “general” really make a difference? I guess it’s just one Martyr more for the Iranian hardliners. Not that have any sympathy for this guy, but I think he is easily replaceable.  Now we have 3500 more soldiers stationed in this area, after pulling out of Syria. Perhaps this had to be done since the Iran was testing the US, shooting down the drone and attacking Saudi oil facilities.

I think overall, the whole thing isn’t that big of an event, but it does mean that the area will continue to be a pressure cooker with US personal involved for the time being.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2020, 03:55:11 PM by Spekulatius »
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.