Author Topic: war drums  (Read 4258 times)

cherzeca

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Re: war drums
« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2020, 05:58:04 PM »
so we can monitor events over the weekend, but it has been reported that the Iraq parliament will vote Saturday to expel US forces from Iraq.  I suppose this is exactly what trump wants. Iraq no longer wants us, we go.  Iraq is riven and dysfunctional politically, and it can deal with Iran as it wants to, either as friend today or foe tomorrow, but big picture, trump seems to both want to end "endless wars" and lay down a marker for Iran as we exit that we will resist mightily their efforts to attack US interests...so hopefully our interests in the region will draw down closer to protecting Israel and other allies in the region (forgetting what you may think about emirs and sultans), and Iran's ambitions during a period of economic sanction become more restrained and less obnoxious. I suppose that is the strategy for those wondering what is going on...


Mark Jr.

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Re: war drums
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2020, 06:10:54 PM »

BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.


I do like that one.

For about the last year I have been trying to think of a short concise term to describe the idea of perceiving things from an extra-dimension from the rest of the participants. I.e. in a 2D world, being able to see things from the 3rd dimension.

The closest appropriate description I've come across is Plato's allegory of "The Cave" in Republic VII. But I'd love to come up with a succinct, one word or short term that captured it.


cherzeca

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Re: war drums
« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2020, 06:17:20 PM »

BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.


I do like that one.

For about the last year I have been trying to think of a short concise term to describe the idea of perceiving things from an extra-dimension from the rest of the participants. I.e. in a 2D world, being able to see things from the 3rd dimension.

The closest appropriate description I've come across is Plato's allegory of "The Cave" in Republic VII. But I'd love to come up with a succinct, one word or short term that captured it.

overconfidence

Cigarbutt

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Re: war drums
« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2020, 10:48:33 PM »
This is not pointed at anyone in particular,
instead it's a thought I had this morning
regarding this & all the other events
deemed earth shattering.

---

News is toxic 2 your body,
it increases cognitive errors,
inhibits thinking,
and wastes time.

Consumption of news is irrelevant.
Consuming less news creates big advantages 4 you.

BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.

www.theguardian.com/media/2013/apr/12/news-is-bad-rolf-dobelli

---

I just added another New Years resolution,

"minimize consumption of news & social media".

This will be a difficult impulse to defeat.
It's not about burying your head in the sand.
It's more about minimizing signal to noise.
That was pretty powerful. Thank you.
As usual and concerning the most recent Middle East noise, you are probably right.

In terms of noise (or simple perception versus real meaning if you follow the Cave allegory) and relevant risk management, your post reminded me of a recent conversation (mostly a dialogue with me in the listen-only mode {sponge learning}) I had with an anesthesia specialist and an airplane pilot. The topic was how to deal with noise and to efficiently integrate it in a risk management strategy. Interestingly, both used a similar strategy, explaining that their inputs are critical only in specific circumstances or stages. They both mentioned that specific irrelevant inputs had be systematically removed but that they still needed to maintain a wide attention span to noise while almost simultaneously being able to filter out the noise, except for the occasional red flags or black swans. Their framework appeared to be very robust.

Mostly, the war drums noise (and related) is likely almost always irrelevant but Mark Jr.'s reference to Plato is interesting because of the messages (and underlying assumptions) from the allegory is that a good society must be one in which the truly wise (the Philosopher-King) are the rulers..

I was reviewing risk management for a specific industry (energy) recently and they came up with the concept of collective mindfulness which involved achieving a balance between the preoccupation with failure and maintaining the ability to smile. :)

DooDiligence

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Re: war drums
« Reply #14 on: January 04, 2020, 06:30:21 AM »
This is not pointed at anyone in particular,
instead it's a thought I had this morning
regarding this & all the other events
deemed earth shattering.

---

News is toxic 2 your body,
it increases cognitive errors,
inhibits thinking,
and wastes time.

Consumption of news is irrelevant.
Consuming less news creates big advantages 4 you.

BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.

www.theguardian.com/media/2013/apr/12/news-is-bad-rolf-dobelli

---

I just added another New Years resolution,

"minimize consumption of news & social media".

This will be a difficult impulse to defeat.
It's not about burying your head in the sand.
It's more about minimizing signal to noise.
That was pretty powerful. Thank you.
As usual and concerning the most recent Middle East noise, you are probably right.

In terms of noise (or simple perception versus real meaning if you follow the Cave allegory) and relevant risk management, your post reminded me of a recent conversation (mostly a dialogue with me in the listen-only mode {sponge learning}) I had with an anesthesia specialist and an airplane pilot. The topic was how to deal with noise and to efficiently integrate it in a risk management strategy. Interestingly, both used a similar strategy, explaining that their inputs are critical only in specific circumstances or stages. They both mentioned that specific irrelevant inputs had be systematically removed but that they still needed to maintain a wide attention span to noise while almost simultaneously being able to filter out the noise, except for the occasional red flags or black swans. Their framework appeared to be very robust.

Mostly, the war drums noise (and related) is likely almost always irrelevant but Mark Jr.'s reference to Plato is interesting because of the messages (and underlying assumptions) from the allegory is that a good society must be one in which the truly wise (the Philosopher-King) are the rulers..

I was reviewing risk management for a specific industry (energy) recently and they came up with the concept of collective mindfulness which involved achieving a balance between the preoccupation with failure and maintaining the ability to smile. :)

I googled "an anesthesiologist & a pilot" hoping to find a funny story & instead found a lot of professionals musing about the similarities between the 2 disciplines. I can relate from a mariners standpoint & from having gotten a Private SEL a loooooong time ago (which hasn't been current for a few decades).

I've been fatigued for quite a while by the relentless, modern, news cycle & made the post after seeing a steady stream of users making doomsday predictions on Twitter re: the recent killing of Soleimani.

A day or so before, I was watching the weather report on our local television station, an ABC / Fox affiliate, & noticed that the screen was framed in an alarming red, with the words "Weather Alert" on prominent display. It was a beautiful sunny day with mild temperatures & a light breeze. There was no forecast of inclement weather.

The broadcast then segued into an even more ominous red screen with the heading "TERRORISM ALERT DESK". This was before the Soleimani news hit & there was nothing but bubbles in the segment. Another lovely gift from Sinclair Media.

Cave builders & sheep trainers, one & all.

Back to Mark Jr., and your point.

How does a person construct a net which is wide enough & has a mesh which is just the right size to gather the target species? Whatever the width & mesh, I believe that all such trawls should include some kind of turdle excluder device.

I believe that such a net is constructed by minimizing the consumption of content from mainstream news outlets & limiting the time spent on social media. Events of import will find their way into the net without the assistance of speleological architects.

Leave the cave & do stuff.

---

I just added another New Years resolution (the cutoff for additions is 7 Jan.).

"Be more gracious & let shit slip."
« Last Edit: January 04, 2020, 06:32:21 AM by DooDiligence »
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Banking 9.4% - WFC // Entertainment 4.7% - DIS // Drinkers & Smokers 7.6% - MO

Retail 1.8% - ULTA

---

%'s held @ MV 1/16/2020 minus 15.8% investable cash

i trumpet my ignorance

https://twitter.com/tunawish

Spekulatius

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Re: war drums
« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2020, 06:47:44 AM »

BREAKING news items are bubbles popping on the surface of a deeper world.


I do like that one.

For about the last year I have been trying to think of a short concise term to describe the idea of perceiving things from an extra-dimension from the rest of the participants. I.e. in a 2D world, being able to see things from the 3rd dimension.

The closest appropriate description I've come across is Plato's allegory of "The Cave" in Republic VII. But I'd love to come up with a succinct, one word or short term that captured it.

Yes, I like this too. The extra dimension is time or history. Current events donít occur in a vacuum but are the results of long threads of narratives that date back decades and centuries. With the Iran one of the threads is that Iran is dominated by schism which  often feel corned by the majority of sunni within the Islamic religion. Hence the hatred against the saudis.

The Shia has a long history of martyrdom, which makes it difficult to fight them. We have seen that in the Iraqi Iranian war in the 1980ís where the Iranians literally threw bodies against tanks and managed to prevail. Thatís why I believe that killing just one person is not going to change much, as the replacement is unlikely to be less radical than the predecessor.

I donít think I could predict what is going to happen in this area in the short or long run, so perhaps these ramblings are all mute. One consequence is that as cherzeca notes that it may hasten the US departure from Iraq, as the Iraqi May not like that the drone strike was performed in their territory (Baghdad airport actually). But then again, recent deployment of US troops suggest otherwise in the short run.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Jurgis

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Re: war drums
« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2020, 06:55:03 AM »
Wag the Dog
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Spekulatius

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Re: war drums
« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2020, 07:20:50 AM »
Wag the Dog

The timing is too early to make an impact on the election. I believe the better explanation is a tit for tat for recent provocations from Iran (US drone shot down over international waters, attack on Saudi oil, processing facilities, Iran meddling in Syria).
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

no_free_lunch

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Re: war drums
« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2020, 07:37:04 AM »
Wag the Dog

The timing is too early to make an impact on the election. I believe the better explanation is a tit for tat for recent provocations from Iran (US drone shot down over international waters, attack on Saudi oil, processing facilities, Iran meddling in Syria).

I agree.  Iranian militias have been firing rockers at us bases for months. They succeeded in killing an American which resulted in an escalatory spiral. There was an American general who has said that the point of killing the Iranian general was to show that they own retaliation and to try to break the spiral.  Aka you kill one of ours, we will kill 10 of yours.

Ejecting the US from Iraq could be another win both from the US side and the Iranian side. Iran will claim that as their revenge and hopefully break the violence cycle. 
« Last Edit: January 04, 2020, 08:14:58 AM by no_free_lunch »

cherzeca

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Re: war drums
« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2020, 07:58:16 AM »
the most interesting thing to me about the hit was that it showed the Iranians that we Americans can do asymmetric warfare too.  you need stealth and good intelligence to do asymetric, and we are too often obvious and blunt.  people who have been calling the hit an "act of war" are missing the point. it was quite frankly an act of terrorism (assassination), directed against a terrorist state.  in a country like Iran where life is cheap, it is best to take out the lives that they value most...this is usually not the way we do things but against Iran, I'm fine with it.

I believe investment markets are highly influenced by squishy things like culture, politics and zeitgeist.  the FC was caused by leverage, yes, but what led otherwise smart people to load up so much leverage?  so one man's signal is another man's noise