Author Topic: war drums  (Read 4259 times)

Cigarbutt

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Re: war drums
« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2020, 07:58:51 AM »
...
I googled "an anesthesiologist & a pilot" hoping to find a funny story & instead found a lot of professionals musing about the similarities between the 2 disciplines. I can relate from a mariners standpoint & from having gotten a Private SEL a loooooong time ago (which hasn't been current for a few decades).

I've been fatigued for quite a while by the relentless, modern, news cycle & made the post after seeing a steady stream of users making doomsday predictions on Twitter re: the recent killing of Soleimani.

A day or so before, I was watching the weather report on our local television station, an ABC / Fox affiliate, & noticed that the screen was framed in an alarming red, with the words "Weather Alert" on prominent display. It was a beautiful sunny day with mild temperatures & a light breeze. There was no forecast of inclement weather.

The broadcast then segued into an even more ominous red screen with the heading "TERRORISM ALERT DESK". This was before the Soleimani news hit & there was nothing but bubbles in the segment. Another lovely gift from Sinclair Media.

Cave builders & sheep trainers, one & all.

Back to Mark Jr., and your point.

How does a person construct a net which is wide enough & has a mesh which is just the right size to gather the target species? Whatever the width & mesh, I believe that all such trawls should include some kind of turdle excluder device.

I believe that such a net is constructed by minimizing the consumption of content from mainstream news outlets & limiting the time spent on social media. Events of import will find their way into the net without the assistance of speleological architects.

Leave the cave & do stuff.


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I just added another New Years resolution (the cutoff for additions is 7 Jan.).

"Be more gracious & let shit slip."
I agree with the above but don't be too gracious. Later today, we're going to walk through an outside light "show". Summarizing question from members of the household: "Why are we doing that?". Summarizing answer: "To see the light". :)

More noise...
A few weeks ago, I read about criteria useful in marine insurance underwriting. The authors described a "method" to see through the noise. They used a framework of permitting risks and triggering risks (with both having an internal and external subdivision). A permitting risk described had to do with the fact that most 'accidents' occurred during concentrated periods of time in overcrowded port areas and systems allowing the buildup of port congestion had to be addressed. An example of a triggering risk was the RMS Titanic. In that case, we know that this was not a typical perfect storm and the fault cannot be solely attributed to natural causes as nature is not known to be vain.
Going back to the war drums theme, in other pages in another thread, a book is mentioned that deals with (potential) explanations of chaos and a main topic of the book is how the assassination of an Austrian archduke "triggered" WWI. As Spekulatius elegantly mentions above, one has to look at the permitting risk factors that allowed for a trigger, however small (or significant) it may have been. This is always easy in retrospect. An interesting feature (according to many credible sources) is that this nationalist guy, Gavrilo Princip, had missed the parade (was late) and was going back home, despised, when, by chance, he happened to be in the 'right' place at the 'right' time to shoot the prince as the parade had been diverted from its original course. And the rest is history.

Enough noise as I'm starting to get online publicity about games with titles like WWIII simulation etc...

PS You continue to contribute to improving my limited vocabulary in your language. Today, I learned what a turdle means (at least I think I do). :)
« Last Edit: January 04, 2020, 08:11:28 AM by Cigarbutt »


Jurgis

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Re: war drums
« Reply #21 on: January 04, 2020, 08:58:32 AM »
Wag the Dog

The timing is too early to make an impact on the election.

Not if it escalates. Not if Iran retaliates.

Also Wag the Dog is not just about the election. It's about overall public opinion about the president.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2020, 09:04:32 AM by Jurgis »
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cherzeca

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Re: war drums
« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2020, 09:13:21 AM »
as to the wag the dog theme, there is a certain disadvantage for Biden and the other Ds if hostilities continue in Iran/iraq throughout the election cycle.  Biden is on record for having counseled Obama not to hit bin laden, and now on record saying he never said that, which is an unambiguous lie.  the bin laden hit is obviously viewed by the electorate as a major success, and trump can make hay out of his success with taking out the king of the Quds vs Biden's record re bin laden.

as for the other D candidates, no one looks to have any foreign policy/military expertise.  Buttigieg will talk a good game about his previous service but how will that square with opposition to this hit?  all of his veteran brethren will call him out, making him look weak. 

DooDiligence

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Re: war drums
« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2020, 12:11:24 PM »
PS You continue to contribute to improving my limited vocabulary in your language. Today, I learned what a turdle means (at least I think I do). :)

I smashed the words "turtle" & "turd" together & voila, turdle.

I'd hoped that I might be eligible for an Ig Nobel prize, but I just googled it & the word already exists.

---

Turdle - An ignorant, trifling person of typically low educational, social, or economic standing that holds up lines in public places doing things like:


- Methodically instructing workers at Subway how to create their perfect sandwich (e.g. “just a little more mayo, I said more mayo!”, “spread those tomatoes out!”), while other people wait.

- Removing the contents of a McDonalds order bag in front of the cashier to double check that everything was included, while other people wait.

- Asking restaurant waiters about the exact ingredients of menu items and then requesting numerous substitutions to the ingredients.

- Rearranging the contents of their purse or wallet at a checkout counter, while other people wait

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The Ig Nobel Prize,

www.improbable.com/ig-about/
Healthcare 21.7% - EW NVO // BRK.B - 24.2% // Auto's & Oil 14.9% - CLB GPC VDE

Banking 9.4% - WFC // Entertainment 4.7% - DIS // Drinkers & Smokers 7.6% - MO

Retail 1.8% - ULTA

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%'s held @ MV 1/16/2020 minus 15.8% investable cash

i trumpet my ignorance

https://twitter.com/tunawish

cubsfan

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Re: war drums
« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2020, 01:31:23 PM »
The Iranians made a serious miscalculation. The US holds all the cards here. The US won't invade Iran or push for regime change - they'll just
exercise tit for tat.  US AirPower can inflict enormous damage on a regime reeling economically.  What happens if the US decides to take out
Iran's navy? What then?

Under Trump, the US has no interest in invasion, occupation or nation building - just deterrence.
And US sanctions continue to inflict enormous damage to the Iranian economy.

The Iranians really fucked up - and figured a President marred by impeachment during an election year, would not respond with the hammer.

That's all the Iranians understand - is the hammer. What a miscalculation.

Iran will have no support or sympathy from their mid-east neighbors, who hate their efforts to destabilize the region (Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, etc)

Any Iranian escalation now will be met with serious damage to the Iranian infrastructure and economy through increased sanctions or
bombing.  Then who loses political support? - The regime.

You can be sure that Iran is praying for the return of US foreign policy under President Obama now. They'd love to have that deal back.

The current situation is very dangerous, but the Iranians are in a hell of their own making.

cherzeca

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Re: war drums
« Reply #25 on: January 04, 2020, 02:15:33 PM »
@cubsfan

agree with your take, and one reason why I think situation is signal and not noise and needs to be paid attention to and processed.  cause if we are wrong, it is hard to make a continued investment bull case at these levels

Gregmal

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Re: war drums
« Reply #26 on: January 04, 2020, 04:10:28 PM »
Is it time to add HII and ESLT to the portfolio?

cherzeca

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Re: war drums
« Reply #27 on: January 05, 2020, 09:35:27 AM »
as to the wag the dog theme, there is a certain disadvantage for Biden and the other Ds if hostilities continue in Iran/iraq throughout the election cycle.  Biden is on record for having counseled Obama not to hit bin laden, and now on record saying he never said that, which is an unambiguous lie.  the bin laden hit is obviously viewed by the electorate as a major success, and trump can make hay out of his success with taking out the king of the Quds vs Biden's record re bin laden.

as for the other D candidates, no one looks to have any foreign policy/military expertise.  Buttigieg will talk a good game about his previous service but how will that square with opposition to this hit?  all of his veteran brethren will call him out, making him look weak.

here is a link to a video speech where Biden reports he told Obama not to go with hit on bin laden:  https://twitter.com/AZachParkinson/status/1213222844840259584?s=20

that Biden is now claiming that he didn't say that to Obama is a remarkable lie, inasmuch as a POTUS candidate is often judged on what he/she would do in difficult foreign policy matters.

I am not trying to turn this thread into a political thread, but I just think this king of the quds hit has many possible consequences for (at least US based) investors, and having trump able to play the two tapes, Biden (should he be nominee) fact then lie, about advising Obama about a universally popular foreign policy action is about as effective political advertising as I can imagine

no_free_lunch

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Re: war drums
« Reply #28 on: January 05, 2020, 11:11:24 AM »
The section below is from the cbc, which is generally quite left leaning.  Based on this opinion at least some Iranians view the assassination positively.

Quote
Hamid Gharajeh of the Iran Democratic Association believes the only imminent collapse is that of Iran's clerical rule.
Dozens of people rally Friday in Toronto's Mel Lastman Square in celebration of the death of Qassem Soleimani. (Rozen Nicolle/CBC)

"This is the beginning of the end of their atrocities," he said, adding he expects Soleimani's death will energize protests in the country. "It's a catalyst for people to feel that we can stand up to these Revolutionary Guard members."

Asked if the U.S. taking action unilaterally against Soleimani worried him, he replied that's not a concern.

"Any action is better than no action," he said, adding he would like to see Canada come out even more strongly against the Iranian regime.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/iranian-community-soleimani-1.5414754

Spekulatius

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Re: war drums
« Reply #29 on: January 05, 2020, 11:12:35 AM »
Escalation or conflicts ( I don’t think war terminology is justified at this point) outcomes are inherently hard to predict. There is the immediate military outcome and the long term consequence. Gulf War I &II were great victories in terms of military outcome, but now 19 years after Gulf war II, we are still in some sort of a war like state in this area. How would an escalation with Iran work out in the longer run especially when Iran will be a nuclear power? Success in foreign politics is hard to judge until decades later. If now Iraq kicks out the US because they are upset about their country being a staging ground for drone wars, then this assassination could be a success for Iran in the long run. I just don’t know and neither does anyone else, in which case it tends to be best to do be involved as little as possible.
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