Author Topic: Welcome President Romney 2020  (Read 1645 times)

LC

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Re: Welcome President Romney 2020
« Reply #20 on: November 08, 2019, 09:14:20 AM »
I actually like the apocalyptic scenarios. The system is corrupt and needs a good flush. Look at all of the folks Epstein hung out with!
Voting for a demagogue and calling it rebellion is nonsense.

Take a look at HK if you want to see what trying to "flush the system" actually looks like.

Life isn't always fun and games. Though that's mostly what the US has known for the last 40 years or so (economically).

I'm pretty confident that our flushing of the system wouldn't look like Hong Kong.

Oh? Trump has been in office for 3 years, 2 of which he had republican control of Congress and Supreme Court. Where has the flush been?

Tell me what “flushing the system” would look like in America.
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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stahleyp

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Re: Welcome President Romney 2020
« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2019, 09:33:58 AM »
I actually like the apocalyptic scenarios. The system is corrupt and needs a good flush. Look at all of the folks Epstein hung out with!
Voting for a demagogue and calling it rebellion is nonsense.

Take a look at HK if you want to see what trying to "flush the system" actually looks like.

Life isn't always fun and games. Though that's mostly what the US has known for the last 40 years or so (economically).

I'm pretty confident that our flushing of the system wouldn't look like Hong Kong.

Oh? Trump has been in office for 3 years, 2 of which he had republican control of Congress and Supreme Court. Where has the flush been?

Tell me what “flushing the system” would look like in America.

This is wishful thinking on my part but I would like to see something like a balanced budget, judging people by the content of their character - not identity, a healthy middle class, having colleges not increase total cost by more than the rate of inflation (or have them on the hook for lousy students), then end of monetary policy - except in very extreme circumstances, giving more power to the IRS to audit folks, having large college endowments to pay taxes, increasing estate taxes, normalizing interest rates, reducing the power of powerful people (like Epstein and his friends), etc.

I think Trump has flushed it somewhat. I know I'm way less trusting of the media than I used to be.
Paul

no_free_lunch

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Re: Welcome President Romney 2020
« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2019, 10:23:18 AM »
Stahley, I couldn't disagree more on Warren and the wealth tax.  6%, like come on.  On top of income tax.  That is an actual assault on people's assets.   There is language in the consitution which forbids this.

I think it sounds fine now because maybe it doesn't affect you, and even if i was american it wouldn't affect me.  However, just like every other government program this is just the beginning.  It starts at $50m, but then there will be a budget crisis and it will be $10m.  Then there will be some other issue and it will be $2m.  Sooner or later I think they will get to anyone who was foolish enough to save.

I think by forcing the government to run a balanced budget a lot of the issues would be ironed out before there would be a budget crisis. Like, if the government wasn't running a huge deficit now, we would have probably had a recession sometime over the past 10 years. People act like recessions are terrible thing but I think they have benefits.

I think the best way to get a balanced budget is not to expand spending.

I'm just going to respond below to some of the various posts I have seen, not necessarily all based on your comments. 

It is true that the republicans have done little to cut spending.  They cut in some areas but add in others.  However, they are in a box.  If they cut too much they will never get re-elected.  They barely got elected to begin with.   We are at a point where the best you can realistically hope for is a government that doesn't add a bunch of spending.

Let's not forget that all this spending was started by the democrats back in the 30's.  Once these programs start you can never ever get rid of them.  That was by design, if you look online you can find some quotes from Roosevelt about it.

I think it's foolish to compare Warren to Obama or Clinton's track record.  This is something completely different.  There is just no debate, you are going to massively increase the size and spend of your government. She is quite open about that.  She is going to add a bunch of taxes on the wealth (and believe me, the middle class before it's all done) to pay for it.  This is her stated agenda.  To try to compare that to the Rs with the logic that they aren't government either is a strange comparison.

Cigarbutt

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Re: Welcome President Romney 2020
« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2019, 11:21:28 AM »
^It looks like the 'shift' happened somewhere in the 70's when we all became Keynesians, while forgetting half the story.
And its mind-boggling effect on productivity.
https://www.bls.gov/lpc/prodybar.htm
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/06/us-industrial-productivity-labor-costs-q3-2019.html
It was fun while it lasted.

LC

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Re: Welcome President Romney 2020
« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2019, 12:03:21 PM »
Oh? Trump has been in office for 3 years, 2 of which he had republican control of Congress and Supreme Court. Where has the flush been?

Tell me what “flushing the system” would look like in America.

This is wishful thinking on my part but I would like to see something like a balanced budget, judging people by the content of their character - not identity, a healthy middle class, having colleges not increase total cost by more than the rate of inflation (or have them on the hook for lousy students), then end of monetary policy - except in very extreme circumstances, giving more power to the IRS to audit folks, having large college endowments to pay taxes, increasing estate taxes, normalizing interest rates, reducing the power of powerful people (like Epstein and his friends), etc.

I think Trump has flushed it somewhat. I know I'm way less trusting of the media than I used to be.

I see.

Balanced budget: Trump has the largest deficit outside of a recession. He just added a cool trillion due to fiscal irresponsibility (lower taxes, higher spending)

Judging people by the content of their character: Is this something the President is responsible for?
Not like he does anyways...otherwise I guess his kid and kid's husband are the most qualified senior white house advisors. His administration has the record of the most staff turnover (34% of his initial staff!) and an increasing amount of Trump allies find themselves in handcuffs.

Healthy middle class: Just about every datapoint shows the middle and lower class share of the past 10 years bull market has paled in comparison to the upper class.

Colleges not increase total cost by more than the rate of inflation - hasn't happened (https://www.jasonscottmontoya.com/images/2019/06/cost-tuition-over-time.png)

End of monetary policy - except in very extreme circumstances - hasn't happened (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)

More power to the IRS to audit folks - hasn't happened (https://www.atr.org/trump-budget-cuts-irs-funding-239-million)

Large college endowments to pay taxes- 2017 tax code levies 1.4% tax on endowment investment income. About 50 institutions quality. A whole 1.4%, or an estimated $200MM assuming an 6-8% gain on eligible endowments. (https://econofact.org/the-university-endowment-tax-who-will-pay-it-and-why-was-it-implemented)

Increasing estate tax- hasn't happened. Trump actually decreased the effective rate in 2017. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/ashleaebeling/2017/12/21/final-tax-bill-includes-huge-estate-tax-win-for-the-rich-the-22-4-million-exemption/)

Normalizing interest rates - Hasn't happened. Rates are incredibly low. (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30)

Reducing the power of powerful people - hasn't happened (here's the most recent example: https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/letters-to-the-editor/article102356882.html)

I mean, AT MOST you can get progress on the Endowment tax which amounts to a paltry $200MM per year. This is a rounding error compared this year's budget increase.



So you have zero progress on the metrics you list but, somehow, you conclude "I think Trump has flushed it somewhat"
How do you explain this?
« Last Edit: November 08, 2019, 12:08:12 PM by LC »
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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stahleyp

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Re: Welcome President Romney 2020
« Reply #25 on: November 08, 2019, 12:06:30 PM »
lc,

Do I seem like a Trump supporter? I didn't say he would carry out those policies which is why I lean toward Warren.

We should give him credit where it's due. For instance, he moved the carried interest loophole from 1 year to 3. Obama had 8 years to do it and did...nothing.
Paul

stahleyp

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Re: Welcome President Romney 2020
« Reply #26 on: November 08, 2019, 12:07:32 PM »
^It looks like the 'shift' happened somewhere in the 70's when we all became Keynesians, while forgetting half the story.
And its mind-boggling effect on productivity.
https://www.bls.gov/lpc/prodybar.htm
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/06/us-industrial-productivity-labor-costs-q3-2019.html
It was fun while it lasted.


Why be more productive when we can just grow the deficit? Economic growth. It's like magic!
Paul

Castanza

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Re: Welcome President Romney 2020
« Reply #27 on: November 08, 2019, 12:25:27 PM »
^It looks like the 'shift' happened somewhere in the 70's when we all became Keynesians, while forgetting half the story.
And its mind-boggling effect on productivity.
https://www.bls.gov/lpc/prodybar.htm
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/06/us-industrial-productivity-labor-costs-q3-2019.html
It was fun while it lasted.

We have a winner. Hayekians > Keynesians

LC

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Re: Welcome President Romney 2020
« Reply #28 on: November 08, 2019, 01:28:35 PM »
lc,

Do I seem like a Trump supporter? I didn't say he would carry out those policies which is why I lean toward Warren.

We should give him credit where it's due. For instance, he moved the carried interest loophole from 1 year to 3. Obama had 8 years to do it and did...nothing.

You claimed that "Trump somewhat flushed the system". When I asked what that meant, you provided 10 criteria.

Of those ten:
Trump has passed on 1 item;
Actually gotten worse on 6 items;
Has not changed on 3 items.

Well, using your own metrics suggest that Trump has not flushed anything. Instead he has added to the problem.

But now the story is carried interest, "credit where credit is due", and that Warren would do a better job on those criteria.
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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stahleyp

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Re: Welcome President Romney 2020
« Reply #29 on: November 08, 2019, 01:42:08 PM »
lc,

Do I seem like a Trump supporter? I didn't say he would carry out those policies which is why I lean toward Warren.

We should give him credit where it's due. For instance, he moved the carried interest loophole from 1 year to 3. Obama had 8 years to do it and did...nothing.

You claimed that "Trump somewhat flushed the system". When I asked what that meant, you provided 10 criteria.

Of those ten:
Trump has passed on 1 item;
Actually gotten worse on 6 items;
Has not changed on 3 items.

Well, using your own metrics suggest that Trump has not flushed anything. Instead he has added to the problem.

But now the story is carried interest, "credit where credit is due", and that Warren would do a better job on those criteria.

I think there is some confusion. I didn't mean that Trump "flushed" the system by my criteria.

I meant he flushed the system by showing how biased the media is. He's also spot on with China.
Paul