Recent Posts

1

Politics / Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.

« Last post by Viking on Today at 12:20:38 AM »

Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!

Times change. Positions that are consensus can be wrong. I think abortion will eventually be one of them. I do not think the 2020 election will be. Trump is a total buffoon but policy wise, pretty boringly conservative.

So his running massive budget deficits when the economy was running hot was ‘boringly conservative’? Trump has been a fiscal train wreck. He is no ‘conservative.’ He is an opportunist (a wolf dressed in sheep's clothing).

———————————
President Trump's Impact on the National Debt
- https://www.thebalance.com/trump-plans-to-reduce-national-debt-4114401

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Donald Trump promised he would eliminate the nation’s debt in eight years.1 Instead, his budget estimates showed that he would actually add at least $8.3 trillion, increasing the U.S. debt to $28.5 trillion by 2025.2 However, the national debt may reach that figure much sooner. When President Trump took office in January 2017, the national debt stood at $19.9 trillion. In October 2020, the national debt reached a new high of $27 trillion.

That's an increase of almost 36% in less than four years

2

Politics / Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.

« Last post by Gregmal on October 26, 2020, 11:47:58 PM »

Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!

Times change. Positions that are consensus can be wrong. I think abortion will eventually be one of them. I do not think the 2020 election will be. Trump is a total buffoon but policy wise, pretty boringly conservative.

3

Politics / Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.

« Last post by Gregmal on October 26, 2020, 11:44:39 PM »

I admire your conviction, but just dont see it. The polls of course should not be taken seriously, theyre proven frauds with obvious agendas, but a Trump victory just doesnt seem to be in the cards.

That said, if you're feeling lucky, the money line on Trump is currently +130, and frankly, I give the bookies more credibility than the pollsters because unlike the scum ball journalists, they have skin in the game.

Ok - I put very little stock in the polls and a lot of stock in the rally attendance, so I guess we will see. RE: The Bookies - good point, which I did not know.

In the heartland, WI, MI, PA, OH - even MN - it feels like a lot of momentum. I never though he could win MN until a couple months ago.
To me, the Black vote is critical, and his approval rating among blacks has improved significantly.

Among professionals there is an awful lot of dead silence on Trump, since they are afraid of being cancelled - but privately many will tell you
they are voting for Trump.  So trying to measure the impact of the "silent majority" is very important and not at all easy.

And all that really matters is the electoral college.

Outside of PA and MI(both heavily in Bidens favor), the bookmakers agree with you on a state by state basis. All the other "toss ups/media has Biden winning" are much more in line with your positions than the polls. However odds(money line wise) are still on a democrat sweep; take them for what you will. Biden is still sitting at -160, which indicates a heavy favorite, although Trump at +130 is more indicate of a modest underdog. The casinos are predators and likely will clean house either way.

Whats interesting is that in 2016 Trump was +275 and Clinton -300. So a much bigger upset and much narrower spread.

4

Politics / Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.

« Last post by Parsad on October 26, 2020, 09:38:22 PM »

Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

So are you saying that if I didn't support segregation, then I'm a liberal, since segregation was a conservative position?  There are dumb positions throughout history, and it is only in hindsight that you realize that.  Often, there are positions that are greater than liberal or conservative...many times it's simply just right and wrong!  Cheers!

5

Politics / Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.

« Last post by Viking on October 26, 2020, 08:52:17 PM »

Whether one is liberal or conservative, depends on what policies you support. Despite what people claim, thats all there is to it. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and tells you it s a pterodactyl, its still a duck.

I agree that a framework is useful. However, in terms of what a person supports there are sometimes other factors that also come in to play that have nothing to do with whether a person is ‘liberal’ or a ‘conservative’: character, honesty, reliability, open mindedness, ethics, common sense to name a few.

6

General Discussion / Re: Have any companies embarked on growth phase after decades of low growth?

« Last post by clutch on October 26, 2020, 07:49:13 PM »

NVDA. Hit the jackpot with AI + crypto + data center booms. Also, their investment into CUDA paid off.

7

Investment Ideas / Re: GUD.V - Knight Therapeutics

« Last post by snowball82 on October 26, 2020, 07:44:43 PM »

The management has a view to have a solid foundation before growth. We know some investors would see 2-3 acquisitions per year and be aggressive like Valeant but it is not their way to execute.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/10/26/2114172/0/en/Knight-Signs-New-Exclusive-AmBisome-Agreement-with-Gilead-in-Brazil.html

8

Investment Ideas / Re: AIV- Apartment Investment and Management Company

« Last post by CorpRaider on October 26, 2020, 07:26:37 PM »

Thanks for posting, I was going to, but I've been lazy/been buried at work. 

I was thinking that too (after saying WTF like 5 times), but now I think all the machinations are so they can conserve cash while complying with the law around the big tax gains mgmt created via their brilliant plans/disposal.

I used to do some REIT work but it has been.a.while, so TFIW... 

It looks like they have to do at least a 10% cash component that unit holders can elect (actually it looks like 20% to me, but the REITs are/were lobbying for a temporary reduction to 10% minimum cash component...they got this during the GFC)...

I guess they have or will have a PLR in hand that says the 10% is ok (could be in Cares Act/stimmy bills; I didn't see that, but I haven't been following closely).

The immediate reverse split seems sketchy/desperate to me.  I guess it will/has been blessed (I mean the tax hit is going out to joe bagholder (me, j/k I would never own a REIT outside a blocker acct) either way), but it's purpose also seems to be to conserve cash. 

If they didn't do the reverse split, all else equal, they would have to pay out more total cash (due to dilution/new shares).  Altentatively they could cut the per share cash dividend. (gasp!!!)  It seems like people/retail would understand that cut better than getting an $8.20 phantom gain with only .82 cents cash and ending up with zero additional shares...but, ok slick. 

I continue to wonder if they are just doing a bunch of stuff to try and piss off taxable and/or retail investors...like maybe a Greenblatt "yellow book" situation, but IDK. 

Maybe they just think they are implementing Steven Roth's pure play plans and are not worried about the phantom gains...either because they are insulated from the gains by their limited ownership and the structure thereof (operating pship units per L&B) or their ability to predict the future of tax policy (I am very skeptical of that; especially when they are talking about making other people write checks).

9

Politics / Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.

« Last post by cwericb on October 26, 2020, 06:31:27 PM »

Food for thought ...

Annual GDP growth by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 2.4%
Democratic Party: 3.8%

Annual equity returns by presidential party since 1928
Republican Party: 6.2%
Democratic Party: 13.2%

10

Politics / Re: A depression of the likes we have never seen before.

« Last post by Dalal.Holdings on October 26, 2020, 06:29:58 PM »

It'll be close.

Biden is favored. Trump knew he'd be tough to beat way back last yr when he was looking for dirt on him in Ukraine. If Trump wins, he'll barely squeak by (again losing the popular vote).

The chances of a Biden landslide are much greater than a Trump landslide (which is almost zero), but I wouldn't bet on a landslide either way.

As in '08-09, the depression stage is already set (the economy is already "shocked") before inauguration day. In my opinion, pandemic mismanagement greatly exacerbated it. What matters is what comes next. Fiscal spending is the only thing that will counter the massive deflationary pressure. Monetary policy is exhausted, so fiscal is all that's left. Large spending plans by Dems may be the only thing that counters the deflation, like it or not. In that scenario, Dem control is good overall to keep us from a Depression (Herbert Hoover's austerity led to Depression, FDR went the other way...)

If we do get out of it, then inflationary winds likely greet us on the other side.

Either way, it does not look like the 2020s will be a smooth ride.