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General Discussion / Re: Coronavirus
« Last post by ERICOPOLY on Today at 10:06:40 PM »The coronavirus is just a 'hoax': the "new hoax" from the Democrats. I wonder if you can guess who said that today.
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General Discussion / Re: how long until S&P500 hits a new high
« Last post by BG2008 on Today at 08:58:00 PM »The problem aren’t really the death rates or number of new cases, the problem is that the only way to stop this is to essentially shut down large parts of the economy. (Travel, Social Events, Public Transport, Restaurants etc.). This could easily become a 2008 recession. With some luck, it will blow lever at home and we have just have the disputation of the supply chains from China, international demand and most likely a recession in Europe.
Overall, we are just back to the prices from October 2019, oh the horror...
Spek, I think this is very well said. It's not the death rate. The moment for me was when Microsoft and Mastercard issued warnings on their revenue guidance. Mastercard sees economic activities in real time as you, I, and everyone else swipe our cards. That was my "oh, I suspected and hedged, but this is confirmation" moment. I bought more hedge. People keep saying 2% death rate is not much.
Bigger picture, I think Germany is already in a recession. Japan printed a negative 5 or 6% and now they have to deal with Corona Virus. The US only grows GDP by 2%. Recession is when it goes negative for 2 quarters. The R word has not reared its head. But when people start to throw around the word, economic planning and future purchases go down. Everything has a feedback loop.
Anecdotal observation, restaurants in Flushing Queens have started to suffer. It's not racist, even the Chinese people are avoiding going out to Dim Sum or dinner. There is bound to be someone from Wuhan. Also, rice is out of stock in Chinese supermarkets. Colorox wipes are out of stock at my local Costco.
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General Discussion / Re: how long until S&P500 hits a new high
« Last post by finetrader on Today at 08:28:38 PM »Quote
The problem aren’t really the death rates or number of new cases, the problem is that the only way to stop this is to essentially shut down large parts of the economy. (Travel, Social Events, Public Transport, Restaurants etc.). This could easily become a 2008 recession. With some luck, it will blow lever at home and we have just have the disputation of the supply chains from China, international demand and most likely a recession in Europe.
Overall, we are just back to the prices from October 2019, oh the horror...
+1
Great post
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General Discussion / Re: how long until S&P500 hits a new high
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 07:47:34 PM »The problem aren’t really the death rates or number of new cases, the problem is that the only way to stop this is to essentially shut down large parts of the economy. (Travel, Social Events, Public Transport, Restaurants etc.). This could easily become a 2008 recession. With some luck, it will blow lever at home and we have just have the disputation of the supply chains from China, international demand and most likely a recession in Europe.
Overall, we are just back to the prices from October 2019, oh the horror...
Overall, we are just back to the prices from October 2019, oh the horror...
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General Discussion / Re: Coronavirus
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 07:43:02 PM »I have not bought as many stocks as I have in the last couple of days since Jan 2016. Some of them are based on valuation work that I had done last March and have not updated since, but the price are at such a discount to IV that I do not even need to make an update. Yes, they are at the epicenter of the investor fears.
I'd be interested to hear what long term compounders are trading cheaper than last March and at substantial discount to IV.
I guess EXPE is but it was cheaper in November and without virus overhang for near term business.
Me too. Even summer 2019 was cheaper and Dec 2018 was much cheaper. In Addition, we now have a Real problem with the economy that we didn’t have last year. A selloff always offers some bargain, thats true, but it was way more true in Dec 2018.
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General Discussion / Re: how long until S&P500 hits a new high
« Last post by Fearful Optimism on Today at 07:41:19 PM »There aren't many confirmed cases in the US because not many people have been tested - as of a couple days ago, only 500 were tested. You will probably see similar exponential growth here as you've seen in South Korea, Italy, etc. I'm in the camp that this is serious and will probably get worse before it gets better. To make matters worse, this isn't really something fiscal or monetary stimulus can solve.
Sorry to be a downer but I think new AT highs are a long way off.
Sorry to be a downer but I think new AT highs are a long way off.
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Investment Ideas / Re: SIRI - Sirius XM Radio
« Last post by jgyetzer on Today at 07:33:13 PM »Is anyone else seeing Liberty Sirius C shares up like 30% after hours? Is that a mistake?
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General Discussion / Re: Coronavirus
« Last post by no_free_lunch on Today at 07:27:35 PM »I have still held back from buying. I think it could get a lot worse still and the market at large is still expensive.
I don't even want to speculate on death rates or infection rates, still too many variables but we can focus on what we know. It is almost impossible to contain with a modern open society. You now have MSM starting to back the draconian measures taken in China. If we go down that route it's going to get ugly and perhaps actually predictable from an economic pov. Supply shortages seem very plausible and I don't know what central bankers can do about that.
I don't even want to speculate on death rates or infection rates, still too many variables but we can focus on what we know. It is almost impossible to contain with a modern open society. You now have MSM starting to back the draconian measures taken in China. If we go down that route it's going to get ugly and perhaps actually predictable from an economic pov. Supply shortages seem very plausible and I don't know what central bankers can do about that.
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Investment Ideas / Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Last post by Cardboard on Today at 07:20:46 PM »You called me KKK a-hole so now assume you piece of shit!
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General Discussion / Re: Coronavirus
« Last post by Jurgis on Today at 07:19:48 PM »I have not bought as many stocks as I have in the last couple of days since Jan 2016. Some of them are based on valuation work that I had done last March and have not updated since, but the price are at such a discount to IV that I do not even need to make an update. Yes, they are at the epicenter of the investor fears.
I'd be interested to hear what long term compounders are trading cheaper than last March and at substantial discount to IV.
I guess EXPE is but it was cheaper in November and without virus overhang for near term business.