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Investment Ideas / Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 04:27:23 PM »
The problem with Liberty Global is Fries. He is a terrible operator of cable business. Count on him to pi$$ away the cash they got from Vodaphone deal. For the Swiss business I have some sympathy for him as he tried to sell it to Sunrise before. I am beginning to think the real genius in the cable business is not Malone but Rutledge. And US appears to be a far better cable market than Europe or LatAm since wireless/fixed broadband convergence is not necessary to do well. If you look at Liberty's cable portfolio, the US (Charter) investment is doing great and outside investments (Global/LatAm) are not.

I am not sure if itís just Fries to blame. I realized a while ago that the cable business environment In the US is unique in that it gives opportunity for good returns. The cable business almost anywhere else has far worse economics and thatís why LBTYA and LILAK and TIGO donít work.
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Investment Ideas / Re: WFC - Wells Fargo
« Last post by rogermunibond on Today at 04:25:42 PM »
If someone read the majority and the minority House committee reports, it's pretty clear that under previous mgmt (Stumpf and Sloan tenures) WFC did a terrible job of risk management and compliance.

Scharf pretty much admitted it when discussing consultant expenses.

I would guess that Buffett read both reports cover to cover.  He's said before that one can find great inside info/scuttlebutt from govt/legislative reports.
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General Discussion / Re: Coronavirus
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 04:17:07 PM »
Many countries have flare ups in Europe. France, Spain, Germany and the UK have all flare ups, as has Israel. Israel got problems once they opened schools I think.
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Investment Ideas / Re: GSY - GoEasy
« Last post by valueinvestor on Today at 04:11:12 PM »
Loan Portfolio of $1.13 billion, up 18%
Net Charge-Off Rate of 10%, down 350 bps
Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share of $1.89, up 50%
Total Liquidity of $260 million, up 30%

To be expected.
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Investment Ideas / Re: LBTYA - Liberty Global
« Last post by ander on Today at 04:09:38 PM »
"EU regulations are too strict to have CHTR returns, plus Mike is no Rutledge."

are they too loose or too strict ? eu seems more competitive but who determines pricing? market or government? via forced capex or price increases? usa has this duopoly structure and regs allow reasonable returns. not sure how long that lasts though with 5g and musk's satellites. this utility like business is being assaulted on all sides in time.
malone probably wants out but it seems a case of easier to enter (we want your money absolutely!) and harder to exit (now wait just a second, you want to sell you say?). the Germans much prefer to get cash then to spend cash. no wonder freenet agreed to getting paid rather than having to pay. let's hope there is an ipo market for all these subs in 5 years...


on the "5g and musk's satellites" point, is there a real concern with fixed mobile convergence? Re: 5G, if LBTYK has a mobile presence, they should do reasonably well going forward. Question becomes do they lose the advantage of having laid the fiber-to-the-home? My understanding is that the 5G will need a fiber backbone so in some cases the FTTH that was put down will not be as advantageous. The Musk satellites or FB satellites, etc projected pricing is relatively similar if not a little bit more than broadband -- unless if those guys will do things as a loss leader - so my assumption was that it will help rural markets or markets that do not have broadband access currently. Do those points sound right?
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General Discussion / Re: 1999 again?
« Last post by TwoCitiesCapital on Today at 04:07:00 PM »

Hasn't Warren Buffett has talked about this? Didn't he say a good protection against inflation is a high quality company with pricing power such as Hersheys or Coca Cola that can increase its prices and pass on inflationary costs to the consumer, without needing to worry so much about a loss of demand? He even talked about how return on equity is positively affected by such companies during inflationary periods.

I think real estate has also done well historically, during periods of increasing interest rates. I remember seeing a chart about this, but I don't remember whether it was referring to real rates or nominal.

Also, regarding GDP, why has no one mentioned the possibility of wages increasing? I keep hearing about inflation over and over in forums and on the news, but there is no mention of possible wage growth.

Big companies and employers are more efficient now than ever. They have been reporting pretty decent earnings. Couldn't it be the case that many companies start increasing the wages of their employees over the next few years? Wouldn't this contribute to higher GDP, and to a gradual lowering of the Warren Buffett indicator (ratio of Wilshire 5000 to GDP), which is bound to mean revert? 

I am trying to figure out if our economy is a bubble about to burst, or if we are undergoing what Ray Dalio refers to as a "beautiful deleveraging", where fiscal austerity, debt monetization, wealth redistribution, and fiscal policy all contribute to gradually combat the long-term, secular decline that we seem to be undergoing right now.

I believe consumers are experiencing inflation, whatever the numbers say, at least in terms of cost of living increases. Have you gone to the grocery store lately? Prices are higher than they were 6 months and one year ago. Shouldn't wages be increasing soon? Employees will start demanding them. There is evidence to support this here:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wage-growth

Maybe the Fed knows what it's doing, and that we should all have some faith that things will be okay. Also, bitcoin lol. Don't get me started.

Problem is that most of the companies with the desirable features you mention (pricing power, low capital intensity etc) are very expensive and in general inflationary periods are associated with multiple compression. There were some very good companies in the Nifty Fifty and they weren't immune from the carnage caused by all the inflation in the 70s. So you would want to make sure that earnings growth can offset that multiple compression to some extent.

+1

It's all about the price you pay. KOs stock is basically up 20% since the late 90s. Of course there is the dividend, but the real return of a 30-year period of excessive spending and asset inflation left much to be desired because it was FAR too expensive in the 90s.

Methinks we'll see the same with today's "quality" investments.

Didn't we get to 44 on the P/E back in 99 on the S&P? Today I think we are in the mid 20's and zero interest rates. We could go up another 50% if it is like the late 90's.

Mid-20s on fictitious earnings. Mid 30s on actual trailing 12-month earnings.
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Politics / Re: Good Ole Joe is your next President
« Last post by Gregmal on Today at 03:45:36 PM »
WOW. LC has some surprising depth to the knowledge base. Dont know of too many with that kind of scriptural depth. Either that or his anti religion stance can be traced to overly zealous religious parents/schooling growing up...
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Politics / Re: Kamala Harris
« Last post by orthopa on Today at 03:42:54 PM »
I like how she implied at the democratic debates that Biden was racist based on busing.

People will say anything to win at the debates.  Remember Trump's "Lying Ted Cruz" taunt, that his father helped kill Kennedy, and stuff about his wife...Ted is practically up Trump's asshole now if it gets him praised by the President.  Cheers!

True but Trump didnt pick Cruz as his Vice President. Or how about when she said that she believes the 3 woman that accused Biden of sexual assault and their voices should be heard!
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Politics / Re: Good Ole Joe is your next President
« Last post by LC on Today at 03:38:06 PM »
There you go again! You might want to look into some spiritual restraining order:

But the prophet who presumes to speak a word in my name that I have not commanded him to speak, or who speaks in the name of other gods, that same prophet shall die.í
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Politics / Re: Republican Voters Against Trump
« Last post by Jurgis on Today at 03:24:42 PM »
Btw, what has he done in response to the Russian-Taliban bounty deal? Genuinely wondering because from what I've seen there has been zero response and also zero condemnation. For the party that respects the troops, the GOP silence has been deafening. And these people are the same ones who are outraged at kneeling during the national anthem because it is supposedly disrespectful to the military.

Didn't you hear that Russian-Taliban bounty deal is fake news? Comrade Trump said so.
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