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21
General Discussion / Re: Leaving New York City
« Last post by Gregmal on Today at 03:05:16 PM »
I kind of assumed that, along with your quite bearish tone because that is what you had conveyed in some other threads. I think in the ESRT thread you were talking about $100-$200 sq/ft.

The thread is about NY, and if those couple things return, ie nightlife, entertainment, etc...so will the people. They do have an interest to get crime down, although there's tended to be cyclical trends with that, and it is not uncommon for there to be high crime during periods of economic disarray. Those issues shakeout, and you'll be seeing record prices again. Similar areas will likely see similar progression. If this isn't what we are talking about, then I dont now what we're doing in a thread about folks fleeing NYC.

So if we are talking about this as an investor, there's really not a whole lot of "risk" posed to NYC or major city hubs, by WFH. The risk is that the drivers that make the city attractive go away...this is a low probability risk IMO.

If we are just talking in general about a hiccup in terms of demand...so what? Thats what cycles are.

If it isn't any of the above, then I am not quite sure what you are saying.... If anything, I think WFH is a ticking time bomb for suburban office space. Although anecdotally, I've been able to WFH since 2014. I've leased 5 different offices during this time and still pretty much did a hybrid 3/2 type of thing. I was still paying the full rent. Most offices in non prime locations regularly operate at below 100% occupancy and have had no problem gradually raising prices either. Either way, cities will be fine. The question is when, not if.
22
Politics / Re: Full recount by hand it will be
« Last post by rb on Today at 02:43:07 PM »
23
General Discussion / Re: Leaving New York City
« Last post by LearningMachine on Today at 02:38:55 PM »
WFH is highly overblown. Sure, it will continue and progress. But you miss the fact that it may be in the interests of many of these folks to tout worker friendly "choices" surrounding WFH. That doesnt mean people will want it. People have loved city centers for as long as there have been civilizations. Young people want bars, clubs, restaurants, and lots of sex. This only happens in the cities. Or put another way, it doesnt happen rurally, and unless you're looking to boink soccer moms, doesnt happen in the burbs. The cities from a real estate perspective are trophy assets. Its supply and demand. With the degree to which capital is gushing into every corner of the universe, even a reasonable demand decline is more than offset by lower rates and greater number of dollars chasing fewer and fewer available assets.

If you want to make an excuse for why guys like Bezos, Zuck, Flatt, etc are buying, fine. I'd prefer to just take it for what it is. It isn't one guy being an outlier...its multiple people and firms who are known for being savvy and opportunistic, doing so. If nothing else its proof of the above. Rich get richer, have more money to deploy....so they deploy it. Brookfield has a whole lot more capital to pour into these assets, and so do a lot of other HNW individuals, institutions, etc. Its the same reason you're seeing shopping centers and retail properties in prized locations selling at record prices, despite a much more dire narrative surrounding them. If anything thinks 5 years from now you see NY RE trading hands at $300 sq/ft....youre simply out to lunch.

Gregmal, we don't have to think in extremes, but can try to handicap in a rational manner. 

I'm not saying NY RE will be trading hands at $300 in five years. I'm also not saying that young people won't like to be in cities for dating, etc.  I'm not sure why you are assuming that is what I am saying.
24
Politics / Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« Last post by Gregmal on Today at 02:34:39 PM »
I will say, its bizarre how a lot of the liberals here like to masquerade around as "republicans"....Not really sure Eric, what you identify with these days, but Sanjeev used to tout you as this model of a conservative republican who rejected Trump, and I'm fairly certain you've claimed to be a conservative in the past...but its pretty easy to see through this as just a stunt or some kind of bizarre attempt to bring credibility ones way. For instance, no "Republican" regularly defends extreme left positions. No conservative would be against adding conservatives justices. Certainly no "Republican" is rooting for the Democrats to take control of the Senate in the Georgia runoff. You see the same thing from others, like the Lincoln Project frauds..."claiming" to be conservatives, but supporting pretty much every liberal cause and regularly advocating against anything conservative. In their case its simply to sucker stupid liberals into donations...but I dont really get what the motive is if you are a normal person with no financial incentive. And spare everyone the "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" nonsense. Thats basically just a cute way of virtue signaling and claiming you like to be philanthropic/generous, just not with your own money...
25
Berkshire Hathaway / Re: Berkshire 2030
« Last post by StubbleJumper on Today at 01:58:46 PM »
I would not be totally surprised if they buy back 4-5 percent of their stock per year the coming ten years.

Stock portfolio could be worth 600-700 billion.

Cash flow from operations 80 billion.

Not an unlikely scenario in my view...

How are you getting $80B 10 years out??  Assuming another large deal?  Growth in operating businesses would have to be in the mid-teens (using 2019 as a base assumption) to even have a shot...what am I missing?

Cash from Ops has been $46B, $37B and $39B from 2017 to 2019.  Hitting $80B would basically be a double over 10 years, which is about 7% annually, compounded.  Without undertaking a nuts-and-bolts analysis of how a 7% growth actually would occur, the notion doesn't seem outrageous at first glance.


SJ
26
Investment Ideas / Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Last post by DooDiligence on Today at 01:52:47 PM »
Quote
Does anyone have a preferred alternate OSX app to manage music?
Spotify  ;)

They probably stream everything Iíve ever ripped while adding more functionality.

Iím a musical caveman (kind of).
27
Politics / Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« Last post by ERICOPOLY on Today at 01:47:31 PM »
It really hurts to hear that you don't find my investment posts useful Cardboard.
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Investment Ideas / Re: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 01:39:53 PM »
I'm somewhat Amazon fanboy, but we have finally disconnected Amazon Alexa/Echo. We've had it for 2+ years and we just don't use it at all. So I hope that Amazon got all the data about our secret conspiratorial conversations. It's not getting any more. (Actually it's still gonna get data from our 3 Fire tablets, but who's really counting).  8)

Well Alexa is a bit of a toy, but we do use it, for playing music (from Amazon music) as a timer in the kitchen. We got an Echo studio recently and the sound is pretty good as we synched it with a smaller Echo can. My son has one that he uses as an alarm clock in his room and occasionally we use it as an intercom and to control smart outlets. There are a bunch of use cases around that make it interesting but I agree itís more like a toy than anything.
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Politics / Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day
« Last post by Cardboard on Today at 01:38:36 PM »
John North will probably warn you soon to post something useful in the investment section Ericopoly.

Cardboard

30
Investment Ideas / Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 01:29:07 PM »
Spek, you have a beautiful house. I will concede that Iím sure I donít know how to use the iPhone camera to its fullest ability. That being said, I just want point and shoot ability that works quickly and takes great photos. I have a cheap old Nikon D3100 that does this well enough for me if I know Iíll need to take some nice photos. An iPhone in my pocket of course is very nice, but itís not really that great.

I should have been clearer; itís not the speed of the mobile connection/WiFi. Both have been fine/normal on my iPhone 12. Itís when I use the messages app that the typing is slow and lags for the first 1-3 words. Itís very annoying.

Another problem area is apps not scrolling properly. This is really annoying.

Anyways, Iím glad you like your phone. Iím sure Iíll like my iPhone 8 when it arrives too!
Sorry to hear about your troubles and if I had the same issue, I would  have returned it as well. the iPhone 12 should be very fast. my iPhone 8+ works very well still and looks like now, so other than a battery replacement at the Apple store, it should be good for a couple of years for my son, unless he beats it up.

Over time, I see myself more and more reverting to an Apple product fanboy. I type this message here on an iPad Pro (2nd generation) and mostly  prefer it over my (rather old ) Windows laptop and nowadays itís much better for Zoom calls, because it has a great camera as well. I just bought the AirPods when they were on sale at Amazon and they are just great devices.
It is my wifeís fault to suck me into the Apple ecosystem, but I have to admit the stuff just works and lasts for a while too. As for camera, why wife did comparison shots between her Apple XR and her Nixon Digital SLR and the Apple phone holds up very well, except in low light condition and I expect the iPhone 12 Pro will make a lot of difference there. My wife almost exclusively switched to taking picks with her phone and also does light editing with apps that used to take here a lot of time with Photoshop and now there is little need for either any more. It is quite amazing how for phones have come for photography and taking video clips considering the small lenses.

If I were too look for a notebook, I would be taking a hard look at the Apple Air series as they get pretty competitive with mid to higher end Windows Notebooks now with the M1 chip. I think they will win quite a bit if market share next year in this segment.
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