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71
Strategies / Re: YOLO Tard Ideas
« Last post by TwoCitiesCapital on January 27, 2021, 03:39:20 PM »
Not sure about hurt but there was such strong moves in some names on no news that I imagine there was some downward pressure being relieved to cover exposure elsewhere? Not a great explanation but it's all I've got :D

I was thinking more second-order on the topic of the the thread, instead of what caused the overall market drop today.  So instead of finding the next stupid thing that will be pumped, finding who will be hurt by the pumps in the end, besides private hedge funds.

I think if we see blowups in GME/AMC/BB type names, you'll also see heavy pressure on other popular names as margin calls force liquidations.

I'm thinking Tesla. Apple. Nikola.

Names that have previous been popular in the site, owned by this crowd, and are long-term favorites. Particularly as the media gets new entrants into the trade, there's more likelihood of harming more traditional positions since new entrants weren't the first movers who were used to margining calls on near bankrupt companies.
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Investment Ideas / Re: THRY - Thryv Holdings Inc
« Last post by ragnarisapirate on January 27, 2021, 03:36:10 PM »
Not sure how much of this business is in runoff or if it will even happen.

www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/01/06/2154110/0/en/Thryv-Inc-to-expand-international-footprint-with-intent-to-acquire-Australia-s-Sensis-Holdings.html

www.sensis.com.au/sensis-data-solutions

It is in run off mode. But what is cool here, is that a PE firm owned it, and had it for like... 7 or 8 years. So, they were looking to sell, hence the good price. Not a lot of people lining up to buy... AND THRY can harvest profitability from these sorts of businesses, and grow their SaaS business because of the interesting setup they had at YP. I think that there will be more of these deals coming.

I also wouldn't be surprised if they refinanced ALL their debt and got a better rate as part of this deal. Seems to me like it would be easier to underwrite debt for the WHOLE company than have do deal with all the amendments and such that the current debt holders would have to do. PLUS... the current debt holders also hold the lion's share of the equity. So, one would think that they would make more money from their stock appreciating from the company cash flowing more, than they would by getting a few more points in interest on their debt the hold.

Seems pretty interesting. I think.
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Strategies / Re: YOLO Tard Ideas
« Last post by aws on January 27, 2021, 03:28:49 PM »
Not sure about hurt but there was such strong moves in some names on no news that I imagine there was some downward pressure being relieved to cover exposure elsewhere? Not a great explanation but it's all I've got :D

I was thinking more second-order on the topic of the the thread, instead of what caused the overall market drop today.  So instead of finding the next stupid thing that will be pumped, finding who will be hurt by the pumps in the end, besides private hedge funds.
74
General Discussion / Re: Good piece on r/WallStreetBets
« Last post by james22 on January 27, 2021, 03:28:09 PM »
Maybe a basket of WSB names and let it ride?

WSB ETF!
75
Berkshire Hathaway / Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Last post by Cigarbutt on January 27, 2021, 03:23:40 PM »
If there are multiple hedge funds going under from "infinite" squeezes here it seems logical that there could be a role for BRK as a bailout provider once again? They need someone with pretty much unlimited capital to come in and save them from complete wipeout by giving them certain staying power. What could be more logical than Berkshire for this purpose? Buying hedge funds for 5 cents on the dollar seems like Buffett's kind of business and it was a somewhat close call with LTCM back in the day, so it's not like it would be unprecedented.
I don't think Berkshire wants optics that comes along with bailing out HFs that were pummeled in this even. Even if it was a decent return. IMO LTCM was a different era and arguably a less controversial strategy (except for the level of leverage).  And he ultimately passed didn't he?
Not quite, at least the way i understand it.
A short and relevant summary:
https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/econ_focus/2009/summer/pdf/economic_history.pdf
This was the era when it's nobody's and everybody's fault started to apply with inspiration to come for more and more moral hazard collective rescues.
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General Discussion / Re: Good piece on r/WallStreetBets
« Last post by bizaro86 on January 27, 2021, 03:19:11 PM »

You might be able to persuade regulators to ban options (not a big loss IMO), although I'm sure there's gonna be yuge pushback on this. Or maybe change some rules to make gamma squeeze unlikely. But I don't see how you expect to prevent millions of people from deciding that they want to buy some crappy stonk at the same time.


CBOE would have hard feelings about that. I think options are a slight net positive. GME will work itself out, probably with the company doing a big issuance, and I think it would be a shame to neuter markets as a result.
77
General Discussion / Re: Good piece on r/WallStreetBets
« Last post by cherzeca on January 27, 2021, 03:12:45 PM »
this is a fascinating question.  there is a market manipulation prohibition in the 34 Act, directed to for example boiler room activity where such shops would build a position and engage in activities to induce a market (calling widows) to unload the position. is this reddit site tantamount to that? doesn't seem so to me. lots of "professional investors" use technical factors to make a buck. here these guys took on a stupid name that was >100% of float short and created a short squeeze...seems to be legit, and they have a 1st A right (commercial speech) to talk to each other about the idea. I just think shorting has moved into a new era where the squeeze risk has increased...caveat emptor

This is more a case of caveat venditor,

yes, thanks. I am not a latin maven
78
Strategies / Re: YOLO Tard Ideas
« Last post by BG2008 on January 27, 2021, 03:11:28 PM »
It's good to hodl while it's strong and hard.
It's good to fapp until it shoots like a rocket.
Just don't hodl when it goes all limp on you.

Shakespeare would be proud
79
General Discussion / Re: 1999 again?
« Last post by Cigarbutt on January 27, 2021, 02:53:46 PM »
From morningstar:
"By contrast, U.S. equity funds lost $24 billion to outflows in June. While that wasn't as bad as May's
record outflow of $30 billion, it pushed quarterly redemptions to a $72 billion record, surpassing the
previous record of $55 billion set in 2009's first quarter."
Not exactly euphoria.
There's been an unusual amount of noise lately.


So, more perspective. Follow the money, they say.
The following confirms (contrary to what some suggest using exactly the same data) that fund flows, per se, have little value for what's coming in terms of overall market prices.


To add value to the noise, even if not enough to produce market timing signal, the household equity allocation has been reaching 1999 levels again, and more.


Mr. Benjamin Graham, who is not relevant now in this kind of market, used to suggest a 25-75% for exposure to riskier assets vs safer bonds although he had suggested the potential difficulty in reliably adjusting along the way. Anyways, these days, all asset classes go up (stocks, bonds (risk-free or not), pensions, home values etc) and even massive recessions barely cause a dent in net worth:

And, these days, the more leveraged, the most shorted, the better.

Of course, everything may be justified. Perhaps not. And yes this too shall pass.
A way to reconnect to fundamentals:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYoTY9MoaUY
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Strategies / Re: YOLO Tard Ideas
« Last post by LC on January 27, 2021, 02:51:23 PM »
Not sure about hurt but there was such strong moves in some names on no news that I imagine there was some downward pressure being relieved to cover exposure elsewhere? Not a great explanation but it's all I've got :D
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