Recent Posts

91

Politics / Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day

« Last post by Gregmal on November 28, 2020, 05:22:06 PM »

Like Howard Schultz? The establishment and MSM outfits made quick work of Schultz. The message has been sent loud and clear and reasonable, non corrupted people with the means to pursue it simply dont find all that comes with it appealing. Its a horrible risk/reward. Say what you want about Trump...look at the before and after. He had plenty of businesses, branding deals, and never a real legal problem. Always viewed as a bit of a pig, but nevertheless fit in quite well with the NY elite and those types. After 4 years in office he's got a million politically charged "investigations", impaired brands, RE thats a little tough to move right now, and even boring businesses like his Trump Collection business attire and shit banned from every department store. He's universally labelled a racist, homophobe, sexist, etc. He's a sexist, but the other stuff is a stretch. Point being none of these issue existed prior to getting into politics. And if you think it's Trump specific just look at the shit that they pulled during ONE WEEK that Howard said he was thinking of running. Better people dont want any part of this mess.

92

General Discussion / Re: Coronavirus

« Last post by frank87 on November 28, 2020, 05:19:21 PM »

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/victoria-australia-no-new-coronavirus-cases_n_5fc2734ac5b61d04bfaa183a

Australia’s second-largest state, Victoria, once the country’s COVID-19 hotspot, said on Friday it has gone 28 days without detecting any new infections, a benchmark widely cited as eliminating the virus from the community.

The state also has zero active cases after the last COVID-19 patient was discharged from hospital this week, a far cry from August when Victoria recorded more than 700 cases in one day and active infections totalled nearly 8,000.

The spread of the virus was only contained after a lockdown lasting more than 100 days, leaving some 5 million people in Melbourne, Australia’s second largest city, largely confined to their homes.

I'm not so sure that their lockdown is entirely responsible for their low case count. Australia is in summer right now and it's becoming increasingly clear that this virus is highly seasonal.

93

Investment Ideas / Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.

« Last post by villainx on November 28, 2020, 05:05:34 PM »

Back in the days, I shocked my college class with how much I spend on cds/music.  Probably like 2-3 cds a month x a year.  So like ~350$. 

These days, I just scrounge around Amazon Prime Music to make a playlist cause it's "free."  Though I would only couch that with - I have to make a kids' friendly playlist too, cause ... kids.

94

Politics / Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day

« Last post by cwericb on November 28, 2020, 05:03:14 PM »

This would seem to be a good time for the more centralist members of both parties to step up to the plate and step into the spotlight - or is that political suicide at this time?

95

Politics / Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day

« Last post by Gregmal on November 28, 2020, 04:47:31 PM »

Biden is a perfectly fine choice. So was Romney. I mean lets get real, for folks like us, Hillary would have been ok. But we're not the ones who need it. With respect to those that do, I tend to see the ones on the right, are generally capable and hard working but lack skill/intellect...and the ones on the left are just lazy, materialistic and like whining. You're not going to find a one size fits all solution because you're dealing with two totally different animals.

96

General Discussion / Re: Leaving New York City

« Last post by Gregmal on November 28, 2020, 04:41:11 PM »

I kind of assumed that, along with your quite bearish tone because that is what you had conveyed in some other threads. I think in the ESRT thread you were talking about $100-$200 sq/ft.

The thread is about NY, and if those couple things return, ie nightlife, entertainment, etc...so will the people. They do have an interest to get crime down, although there's tended to be cyclical trends with that, and it is not uncommon for there to be high crime during periods of economic disarray. Those issues shakeout, and you'll be seeing record prices again. Similar areas will likely see similar progression. If this isn't what we are talking about, then I dont now what we're doing in a thread about folks fleeing NYC.

So if we are talking about this as an investor, there's really not a whole lot of "risk" posed to NYC or major city hubs, by WFH. The risk is that the drivers that make the city attractive go away...this is a low probability risk IMO.

If we are just talking in general about a hiccup in terms of demand...so what? Thats what cycles are.

If it isn't any of the above, then I am not quite sure what you are saying.... If anything, I think WFH is a ticking time bomb for suburban office space. Although anecdotally, I've been able to WFH since 2014. I've leased 5 different offices during this time and still pretty much did a hybrid 3/2 type of thing. I was still paying the full rent. Most offices in non prime locations regularly operate at below 100% occupancy and have had no problem gradually raising prices either. Either way, cities will be fine. The question is when, not if.

Your figures are an exaggeration above, but yes, I handicapped on ESRT, got in below $5.50 and got out at $10. 

When trying to handicap residential prices next to Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Google in Seattle area, I'm saying there will be some negative impact to prices in real life as a result of Bill Gates prediction of more than 30% of days not being spent in office anymore, and there will be some positive impact to residential prices in exurbs in Seattle area.  That's all, no extreme statements.

Thats hardly a controversial statement then and Id even agree with you. There will be some softness and suburbs/rural will benefit. Thats already occurring. But I also wouldn't underestimate the desire of people otherwise priced out of an area to be waiting for the opportunity. I dont think its Gates prediction but rather supply and demand at work. However longer term, the question, and investment opportunity I think is pretty clear. What happened following the GFC where masses of folks were evicted/foreclosed? When the forecasted "new normal" was that everyone and their mother would be renters from now on. An unprecedented wave of private investor/institutional money came in and snapped up homes in desirable but out of favor areas. And its been nothing short of a home run for them. I wouldn't confuse the current covid hysteria where people are literally forced to WFH and daily occupancy rates are like 20% as a new normal. Two years from now most people who were working in an office will still work from at an office. Not just younger people; you dont think the average middle aged married person with kids doesnt cherish the break from that? Or the single, middle aged person not quite young enough for dating apps to be appealing? Where do they get social interaction? The distortion often emerges when there are irregularities and imbalances. Not a whole lot different than when we had an excess supply of stocks in March. The pendulum is always swinging. Sometimes it is fairly straight forward/easy to step back and simply determine whether we are in or out of favor, and then look at what needs to occur to get to the other side. In relation to the thread topic, for NY, its opening back up businesses, getting crime down, and probably looking in the mirror as far as tax policy goes. Pulling shit like they did with Amazon certainly didnt help, but I dont think thats something they can get away with doing repeatedly, and sooner or later they'll see that.

97

Politics / Re: US Election Rules and Possible Outcomes On Election Day

« Last post by LC on November 28, 2020, 04:22:41 PM »

They’ve all got integrity until they get in power, then they get shitty. Some are just worse than others. The republicans lost a true conservative in McCain and are now stuck between Mitch and Trump. Hopefully Romney can pull more sway within the party if we get any pullback from Trump and his antics. You can see already on this site, there is a divide growing between the “right”. The conservatives are toning down their rhetoric now that Trump is leaving, while the zealots continue digging their hole even deeper. Hopefully the conservatives will out, but until that happens I’ll cast my lot in with Biden.

98

General Discussion / Re: Leaving New York City

« Last post by LearningMachine on November 28, 2020, 04:16:15 PM »

I kind of assumed that, along with your quite bearish tone because that is what you had conveyed in some other threads. I think in the ESRT thread you were talking about $100-$200 sq/ft.

The thread is about NY, and if those couple things return, ie nightlife, entertainment, etc...so will the people. They do have an interest to get crime down, although there's tended to be cyclical trends with that, and it is not uncommon for there to be high crime during periods of economic disarray. Those issues shakeout, and you'll be seeing record prices again. Similar areas will likely see similar progression. If this isn't what we are talking about, then I dont now what we're doing in a thread about folks fleeing NYC.

So if we are talking about this as an investor, there's really not a whole lot of "risk" posed to NYC or major city hubs, by WFH. The risk is that the drivers that make the city attractive go away...this is a low probability risk IMO.

If we are just talking in general about a hiccup in terms of demand...so what? Thats what cycles are.

If it isn't any of the above, then I am not quite sure what you are saying.... If anything, I think WFH is a ticking time bomb for suburban office space. Although anecdotally, I've been able to WFH since 2014. I've leased 5 different offices during this time and still pretty much did a hybrid 3/2 type of thing. I was still paying the full rent. Most offices in non prime locations regularly operate at below 100% occupancy and have had no problem gradually raising prices either. Either way, cities will be fine. The question is when, not if.

Yes, I handicapped on ESRT, got in below $5.50 and got out at $10.  Thanks to your and pupil's contribution to that handicapping as well.

Because someone was talking about Seattle in this thread, I went along. When trying to handicap residential prices next to Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Google in Seattle area, I'm saying there will be some negative impact to prices in real life as a result of Bill Gates' prediction of more than 30% of days not being spent in office anymore (which I agree with), and there will be some positive impact to residential prices in exurbs in Seattle area. 

I agree with you that young people will not leave cities.  I hope you will also agree that young folks also don't have to live next to their employer anymore.  Some can live in the middle of Seattle next to bars cheaper than for living next to Facebook, Amazon, Google or Microsoft.  Some family folks can live in exurbs with water view cheaper than for living next to headquarters.

Looks like you also agree with Bill Gates' prediction, and that's why you are saying suburban office real estate might be in trouble.

99

Investment Ideas / Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors

« Last post by rkbabang on November 28, 2020, 04:06:15 PM »

I have an elderly relative who was a pretty savvy business man in his prime. Our family set him up with a smart TV a few year ago which allows him to watch Youtube videos on the TV. At some point about 20 months ago he watched an electric vehicle video on Youtube and ever since then the Youtube suggestion algorithms have bombarded him with "Tesla News" videos produced by people trying to collect referral fees. Despite our efforts to explain to him that these were biased videos, he became convinced by these "experts" that Tesla was a game changer on the brink of world domination. Earlier this year for the first time in 50 years he walked down to his bank branch, opened a brokerage account and purchased 25k worth of Tesla stock.

It has been very disturbing to basically observe an app brainwash a comfortably retired person into believing they need to act now and buy this stock even when they have no need for money. I have read many accounts of various investment manias that have occurred over history but this sure seems like a new one.

If that was earlier this year then he has done quite well, see if you can convince him to sell and enjoy his gains.

100

Investment Ideas / Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.

« Last post by rkbabang on November 28, 2020, 03:59:27 PM »

Does anyone have a preferred alternate OSX app to manage music?

Spotify 

They probably stream everything I’ve ever ripped while adding more functionality.

I’m a musical caveman (kind of).

I had a huge music library, but I switched to just using Prime Music unlimited.  It's $7.99/mo, but you can pick exactly which songs to add to your library and you can either copy them to your phone or stream them, (I download them to save data).  I recreated my old mp3 library and added hundreds if not thousands of songs on top of it.