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91
Investment Ideas / Re: ALX - Alexander's
« Last post by thepupil on July 12, 2020, 04:37:51 PM »
Re the apartment, was referring to his VIC writeup which includes the following:

Quote
The Alexander - $7.8mm of NOI @ 4.25% cap rate $184mm of value with no debt so $184mm of equity

The Alexander Ė This is simply one of the nicest multi-family in central Queens.  It is farther from the city but offers 2 bedrooms in the high $3,000 range with views of the city.  Itís cheaper than Long Island City.  This is a very good asset.

Youíll have to ask him how he got to $7.8mm NOI.

I appreciate your everyoneís effort to tear ALX apart and really get all into the details. I havenít done enough work to answer your valid questions about whatís going on with 731 retail.
92
Politics / Re: Let The Pardons Begin!
« Last post by Read the Footnotes on July 12, 2020, 04:30:05 PM »
The Lincoln Project's thoughts on the subject.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p00fxoDpaIo
93
Investment Ideas / Re: ALX - Alexander's
« Last post by rb on July 12, 2020, 04:18:05 PM »
First off. thanks to the pupil for all his contribution the the thread. I tried to in vain to find BG's comments about the apartment building in queens. Couldn't find them, instead I read 25 pages of BG's posts, which isn't all that bad in itself.

Anyway, as I mentioned previously, I'm trying to price this thing piece by piece. Right now I'm gonna look at the 731 retail piece.

As per BG's sister contribution from the 2020 Q1 10q they won't be able to extend the mortgage on the 731 retail because they'll be in violation of covenants. Thanks BG's sister! Well it actually turns out that they breached their debt service covenant on that property in Q3 2019! No mention of this fact in the 2019Q3 10Q or the 2019 10K. Only some vague footnote about extension covenants in 2020Q1 10Q. But let's move on because now that we know about the covenant breach we can piece together numbers on this property.

I assume the covenant got triggered by H&M pulling out. Per the mortgage they need to keep a debt service ratio of basically projected cash NOI to debt service of 1.1:1. Debt service is the higher of:

a) Actual interest payment with 30 year amortization = $19M
b) 10 year treasury +2.5% with 30 year amortization = 20.6M
c) Principal x 6.44% = 22.5M

In 2017 they had 174,000 sqft @ 99.4% ocupancy and $181.72 per foot rent and were in compliance with the covenant. That means that they had at least of 24.8M NOI and that expenses were less than $6.6M.

In 2019 they breach the covenant (I'm assuming H&M paid average rent). They still have 177,000 sqft @ 99.4 occupancy. That means 172,956 sqft. Less H&M's 27,000 sqft you get 145,956 sqft. Avg weighted rent is now 193.81. Based on that you get that expenses are at least 3.5M.

So now we know that expenses for 731 retail are between 3.5 and 6.6 million. These expenses would include the VNO management piece which I don't have the patience to break out right now. I may update the post with that. But now this is where shit gets weird:

First, from the 2018 10k to 2019 10k the building goes from 174k sqft @99.4 occupancy to 155k sqft @ 92.7 occupancy. Did the building shrink or something? Well no, they put 8,000 sqft into the various category and 20,000 sqft just vanished. I guess it's better to have a 155k sqft with 7.3% vacancy than 174k sqft with 17.4% vacancy? I don't know.

Second, the avg weighted rent went from $194 a foot to $277 a foot. This is really bizarre. I can think of a couple of unlikely scenarios of why that is:

1. The rent for H&M was so low that it dragged the average rent way down. But then why leave?
2. In 2019 there was the mother of all rent steps. This would explain why H&M would pack up. But I've never heard of this kind of rent step. Additionally, if this were the case they wouldn't breach because they're making way more in rent (39.5M) even without H&M than before with H&M (33.5M).*

* I also saw that next door at 715 Lexington they had a crazy increase in rent from 105 a foot in 2018 to 211 a foot in 2019. So I thought that maybe there was some crazy expense increase that gets passed through on rent, maybe some weird property tax levy or something. But then next door to that at 968 3rd avenue rents went from 165 a foot in 2018 to 168 a foot in 2019 so I guess it's not that.

If anyone has a better idea of what's going on, please chime in.
94
General Discussion / Re: What Are You Drinking?
« Last post by Castanza on July 12, 2020, 04:16:13 PM »
Ever Grain Brewing: HELLYES Lager
95
Investment Ideas / Re: GRIF - Griffin Industrial Realty
« Last post by shhughes1116 on July 12, 2020, 02:51:53 PM »
Was there no one asking questions for earning call or did the transcript I read got cut out?

Didnít seem like a negative call.

I think it was pre-recorded.
96
Politics / Re: Let The Pardons Begin!
« Last post by Gregmal on July 12, 2020, 02:12:48 PM »
There are definitely differences and there are also definitely issues that stem from larger systematic abuses. It is unfair to simply say, "he got convicted, it doesnt matter what everyone else was doing"... because if everyone else was doing that stuff, then WTF are you singling out these people for? Oh yea, its politically charged, thats why. And thats what a lot of folks have a problem with. If you're going to go after Flynn, and all you even have there is tricking him, and pressuring him into taking a plea...thats kind of messed up(ahem, more evidence of cultural problems within the US law enforcement agencies) but whatever, then why arent you going after others. Cant think of a better example than the Biden kids. Stone is another example. Yea, a dirty political strategist puppet master...but since he's a Republican....


Manafort I dont even have an issue with. He's basically the Ilya Kovalchuk retirement contract of political scam artists. Sure, everyone was doing it, but he was sooo blatant, outrageously over the top, didnt give a fuck bad that it probably does need to be made an example out of. Same as NJD getting punished for the contract even though every other team in the league had given out multiple retirement contracts.
97
Politics / Re: Let The Pardons Begin!
« Last post by rb on July 12, 2020, 01:31:14 PM »
If one needs a pardon, customarily there is proof of criminality.
Flynn was not pardoned. Actually Stone didn't get pardoned either, just got his sentence commuted.

I love how I can sit in a foreign country and know more about whats going on than Americans. Absolutely ridiculous.
I don't get what you're trying to say. Let me spell it out if my previous tongue-in-cheek comment flew by. If you need a pardon or a commutation of sentence there is proof of criminality. I.e. Roger Stone needed a commutation of his sentence because he was found guilty of a crime in a court of law. That's how he got a sentence that needed commuting. Same with pardons.

People that have not been found guilty of a crime (lack of proof of criminality) don't need a pardon or commutation of sentence. I hope it makes more sense now.
98
Politics / Re: Let The Pardons Begin!
« Last post by LC on July 12, 2020, 01:23:31 PM »
Quote
I think the political system is only corrupt because too many look the other way and don't take any action. Can't blame the leeches for taking advantage.
I mean, you can definitely blame the leeches. And you should. Moreso than blaming everyday people who have their own problems to worry about.

Then when the leeches get elected, well sure, now you've got more than enough blame to go around.
99
Politics / Re: Let The Pardons Begin!
« Last post by Edward on July 12, 2020, 01:14:56 PM »
Nice oped by a once icon, that led a corrupt group of partisan attorneys to get the President.
Even though they failed, they entrapped multiple citizens on process crimes, destroyed lives of innocents, spied on US citizens,
ALL THE WHILE ignoring the crimes of Clinton and Obama Administration that made Chicago politics look like a parlor game.

Robert Mueller and the FBI, DOJ will be forever tarnished by their despicable behavior.

The two tier system of Justice in DC has never been more openly flaunted then by this investigation.

American's took notice - and will not forget.
Absolutely, and the best example of this is Epstein. The guy had a business selling kids for sex in the open for 20 years, everyone knew and told jokes about it.

I think the political system is only corrupt because too many look the other way and don't take any action. Can't blame the leeches for taking advantage.
100
Politics / Re: Let The Pardons Begin!
« Last post by Edward on July 12, 2020, 01:11:36 PM »
If one needs a pardon, customarily there is proof of criminality.
Flynn was not pardoned. Actually Stone didn't get pardoned either, just got his sentence commuted.

I love how I can sit in a foreign country and know more about whats going on than Americans. Absolutely ridiculous.
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