Author Topic: Post-Election Positioning  (Read 602 times)

mattee2264

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Re: Post-Election Positioning
« Reply #10 on: Today at 02:11:35 AM »
I don't think Lockdown 2.0 has been priced in and could easily turn a V shaped recovery into a W or even a Nike swoosh. A power vacuum could hinder an effective response and make things a lot worse.

 And if a market can fall 30% in little more than a month and rise 50% in only a few months then any market moves will probably be similarly exaggerated.

 On the other hand the set up seems a little too obvious. But perhaps bulls do still have rose tinted spectacles on and got overconfident there would be a clearcut Biden victory and a vaccine rollout would happen before cases rose to the point where lockdowns were considered.

 Probably this is all quite bullish for Big Tech especially if cyclical sectors sell off on virus/lack of stimulus fears. Although we might see in Q3 earnings that they are not completely decoupled from the wider economy.

 Probably quite bearish for financials as credit loss provisions made earlier in the year may now prove completely inadequate.