Author Topic: Alta fox presentation “The makings of a multi bagger”  (Read 2948 times)

Spekulatius

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Alta fox presentation “The makings of a multi bagger”
« on: September 12, 2020, 11:29:31 AM »
Alta Fox Capital published the result from an impressive study looking at multibagger microcap stocks from 2015 to 2020. very interesting read and some of the stocks may be good buys even now:
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5aaacb57506fbe4636414126/t/5f5ba8c6bba8c27b79d66af7/1599842551653/Conclusion+Deck-+Makings+of+a+MultiBagger_compressed+(1).pdf
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thowed

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Re: Alta fox presentation “The makings of a multi bagger”
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2020, 11:50:03 AM »
Many thanks for this.

A number of names I know a little, from various Intl small-cap funds I follow, so interesting to learn more about them, and even more interesting to find about the others.

Further confirms my suspicion that Rule of Law is a good thing (for lots of reasons!).  Australia and Scandinavian small-caps are interesting hunting grounds, though arguably Australia is better-placed for the 21st Century and Asian growth.

Depressing that the UK PM seems less convinced about the Rule of Law at the moment, though encouraging that so many in his own party have spoken up against him (something that perhaps some other countries could learn from...).

p.s. Last para not intended to be partisan in any way - can apply to any political party.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 12:12:42 PM by thowed »

BG2008

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Re: Alta fox presentation “The makings of a multi bagger”
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2020, 11:59:31 AM »
This is one of the most impressive presentations ever by 3 interns

Packer16

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Re: Alta fox presentation “The makings of a multi bagger”
« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2020, 12:54:08 PM »
It does have alot of data on each name which is nice screen for more deep dives.

Spekulatius

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Re: Alta fox presentation “The makings of a multi bagger”
« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2020, 01:12:18 PM »
Fun fact: There are 3 Salmon producers from Norway in this list of high performers. They are all clustered towards the end 🐟.
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BG2008

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Re: Alta fox presentation “The makings of a multi bagger”
« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2020, 01:43:54 PM »
Fun fact: There are 3 Salmon producers from Norway in this list of high performers. They are all clustered towards the end 🐟.

I noticed that and I was wondering what created the set up for that, I need to look back again.  This is a really interesting analysis. It seems like if you double revenue and do a little better with EBITDA, the multiple expands by double.  So a 2.5x in EBITDA translate into a 5x when the EV/EBITDA goes from 8-9x to 18x.  Interesting thought process.

BG2008

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Re: Alta fox presentation “The makings of a multi bagger”
« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2020, 01:44:24 PM »
Whether intentional or not, this is great marketing for Alta Fox.  It really built a brand for them.

Gregmal

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Re: Alta fox presentation “The makings of a multi bagger”
« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2020, 02:40:36 PM »
Few can find them quite like Connor Haley.

Spekulatius

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Re: Alta fox presentation “The makings of a multi bagger”
« Reply #8 on: September 14, 2020, 04:38:56 PM »
Fun fact: There are 3 Salmon producers from Norway in this list of high performers. They are all clustered towards the end .

I noticed that and I was wondering what created the set up for that, I need to look back again.  This is a really interesting analysis. It seems like if you double revenue and do a little better with EBITDA, the multiple expands by double.  So a 2.5x in EBITDA translate into a 5x when the EV/EBITDA goes from 8-9x to 18x.  Interesting thought process.

Well, it works that way for the stocks that performed well - you pretty much need multiple expansion to get into the top performance tier. The fact that the market  has seen multiple expansion during the time frame (2015-2020) also helped.

The salmon producers probably started out  a cyclical trough In 2015. I recall the industry had problem a few years ago. I also dimly recall that Einhorn shorted a Norwegian salmon producer at some point, which didn’t work out for him.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2020, 11:16:17 AM by Spekulatius »
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brker_guy

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Re: Alta fox presentation “The makings of a multi bagger”
« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2020, 09:20:45 PM »
Spekulatius, remarkable and most impressive collection of ideas that I have come across as an investor!  Super outstanding work and great attention to details with 4 pages of analysis per idea!  Thank you kindly for sharing 645 pages of wonderful collection of hard work.