Author Topic: Post-Election Positioning  (Read 5009 times)

mattee2264

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Re: Post-Election Positioning
« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2020, 02:11:35 AM »
I don't think Lockdown 2.0 has been priced in and could easily turn a V shaped recovery into a W or even a Nike swoosh. A power vacuum could hinder an effective response and make things a lot worse.

 And if a market can fall 30% in little more than a month and rise 50% in only a few months then any market moves will probably be similarly exaggerated.

 On the other hand the set up seems a little too obvious. But perhaps bulls do still have rose tinted spectacles on and got overconfident there would be a clearcut Biden victory and a vaccine rollout would happen before cases rose to the point where lockdowns were considered.

 Probably this is all quite bullish for Big Tech especially if cyclical sectors sell off on virus/lack of stimulus fears. Although we might see in Q3 earnings that they are not completely decoupled from the wider economy.

 Probably quite bearish for financials as credit loss provisions made earlier in the year may now prove completely inadequate.


samwise

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Re: Post-Election Positioning
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2020, 05:47:47 PM »
Yes I do wonder what happens in the post election, pre inauguration leadership vacuum when we are in the cold season and cases are spiking. Some decisions may be required. At a minimum some fiscal package, at max a lockdown.

Spekulatius

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Re: Post-Election Positioning
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2020, 05:58:11 PM »
Yes I do wonder what happens in the post election, pre inauguration leadership vacuum when we are in the cold season and cases are spiking. Some decisions may be required. At a minimum some fiscal package, at max a lockdown.

Most of the decisions regarding health and COVID-19 are made by the individual states, not the government in Washington. Sure the federal government can and should help but one would think they could do two month or so without.
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mattee2264

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Re: Post-Election Positioning
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2020, 04:07:18 AM »

 Any updated thoughts on this? Markets have been quite buoyant going into the election but doesn't look as there will be a clear outcome for weeks which could result in a lot of volatility.

Spekulatius

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Re: Post-Election Positioning
« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2020, 06:40:56 PM »

 Any updated thoughts on this? Markets have been quite buoyant going into the election but doesn't look as there will be a clear outcome for weeks which could result in a lot of volatility.

I think the close election is the result the market is looking for. It doesn’t really matter that much which way it goes. Close is good enough. That said, I do expect some mood swings from Mr Market, but that is nothing new.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

mattee2264

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Re: Post-Election Positioning
« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2020, 01:58:04 AM »

  Agree the likely outcome seems quite favourable. Perhaps now the focus will turn to the rising case numbers which in the US crossed 100K yesterday. I don't think there has been any talk of lockdowns yet and in the UK at least the sense is that we have entered into lockdown prematurely. But rising uncertainty re the health situation should definitely start to worry markets regardless of how favourable the election outcome is viewed.