Author Topic: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!  (Read 310793 times)

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #310 on: November 06, 2014, 08:16:15 AM »
Not much has changed. I purchased some more Intralot at about Euro 1.25.

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argonaut

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #311 on: November 06, 2014, 09:36:02 AM »
Can I ask as you avg down if you have a rule of thumb .. Eg for each 30% drop you avg 50% more of the original holding? Eg how much in percent more did you pick up at 1.25?

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #312 on: November 06, 2014, 10:56:53 AM »
I don't have a rule per se other than seeing if for some reason the value has declined, which in this case it did not.  I bought too much at the higher prices so this at least reduced my cost basis.  In this case I bought about 33% of the original purchase price in value.

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JoelS

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #313 on: November 15, 2014, 09:14:37 PM »
Packer, do you categorize holdings or actively look for "work outs" or have you ever been in a "control situation". If not, is this something you might consider doing in the future? One further qs if I may, what methods, if any, have you found to reduce volatility in the down years, without compromising upside? Thank you in advance for any answers and thank you for this thread.

Joel

investor-man

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #314 on: November 16, 2014, 06:27:53 AM »
Hi Packer,

Thanks again for taking the time to answer all of these questions! I met you in NYC a few months back and we were discussing your use of the Kelly Formula to choose a maximum on the size of a position. You said you always use 50/50 as your probabilities. I'm curious if you ever adjust those probabilities if your conviction goes up. For example, right now in my portfolio Fiat is approaching it's max based on a 50/50 probability with the Kelly formula -- Kelly tells me 20% at the current price/FV. But my conviction has gone up a bit, and if I adjust to 60/40, Kelly tells me to let it run up to 32%. Either way for tax purposes I'm going to keep all of my holdings in Fiat around for at least the next four months, but I'm curious what you do in situations like this.

Thanks,
investor-man
Ferengi Rule of Acquisition #3 "Never spend more for an acquisition than you have to."

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #315 on: November 16, 2014, 06:50:54 AM »
I haven't invested in many workouts as I don't feel I have any particular advantage over others here.  I am planning on investing in NNN property funds to reduce my volatility going forward.  Today you get a 7% yield plus rent appreciation of 2% with another 1% for accretive purchases.

For the Kelly formula, I don't adjust the probabilities as I am looking for an objective percentage allocation.   I use this as a warning sign (a risk control tool) when my portfolio is getting too concentrated.  If you can withstand the volatility, you will be OK.  You may also want to see if there are other investments that have similar upside that you can purchase with a partial sale of the position.  I have done this within the past 12 months with AIQ and GNCMA when they have become larger parts of the portfolio.

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WeiChiLoh

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #316 on: November 18, 2014, 07:20:05 AM »
Hi Packer,

What do you think of this idea of mine? https://www.dropbox.com/s/tgbzuvpw7qnvi4x/Haw%20Par.pdf?dl=0

I am still learning, but I am hoping if I can get some feedback from a veteran.

Thanks!

west

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #317 on: November 21, 2014, 02:25:19 PM »
Packer, where do you generally get comparable transaction multiples from?

I recently got access to CapitalIQ and I've used it for finding some transaction multiples.  However, I've noticed it doesn't have everything.  For example, Versar (a company I'm invested in) recently bought the firm J.M. Waller.  All of the details for the transaction were very publicly disclosed.  However, it's not in the CapitalIQ database as far as I see.

Is there another (better?) resource you use to find these multiples?  If not, how do you compensate for CapitalIQs lack of complete information?  TIA.

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #318 on: November 21, 2014, 07:44:45 PM »
I use Cap IQ and Bloomberg as a starting point and confirm/correct add to the data with financial disclosures and press releases.  There can be implicit assumptions in Cap IQ data I have used in the past. 

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west

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #319 on: November 21, 2014, 10:51:15 PM »
I use Cap IQ and Bloomberg as a starting point and confirm/correct add to the data with financial disclosures and press releases.  There can be implicit assumptions in Cap IQ data I have used in the past. 

Packer

Huh.  I didn't know Bloomberg had a way of looking at prior transactions.  Is there an easy, um... I think you call it a Bloomberg command to access this?  Or is it more complicated than that?