Author Topic: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!  (Read 299432 times)

valueInv

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #90 on: November 24, 2013, 10:10:51 PM »
Google's work with fiber and wifi and such is mostly to catalyze others to improve their service (that's my understanding, anyway). I seriously doubt that they want to be in the business of becoming the world's ISP and deal with all the headaches this brings (you actually need customer service, at some point...). They'd rather keep the pressure on so the internet stays fast and relatively open so they can sell ads without having to do all that.

And push prices down.


valueInv

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #91 on: November 24, 2013, 10:15:04 PM »
I think the article is a little misleading because most folks are going from cable to high speed internet and the number of sub losses as a % of total subs is relatively small.  When they total all losses, they only include "cable cos" in their numbers not cable cos plus telcos like they should.  I think the data shows the market is mature but I think most already know that.

The only real threat they mention is wifi hot spots.  So unless you think paying cable subscribers are going to transition to mobile devices and watch TV/internet at Starbucks, there is not much of a threat.  Mobile is strarting from such a small base that it does not make sense to compare growth rates.

As Malone has stated the key is the wide pipe.  If entertainment starts to use more bandwidth you will see growth in broadband providers both telco and cable and Starbucks wifi hot spot just won't suffice.

Packer

Cablecos are the most aggressive deployers of Wifi hotspots.

Liberty

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #92 on: November 25, 2013, 08:16:27 AM »
What reassures me about cablecos is that mobile computing (phones, tablets) isn't nearly as mobile as people seem to think it is. People usually end up somewhere like home, the office, a restaurant, whatever. While you're in transit, sure you'll go cellular, but it's still way more efficient to run a wire to a building and have a wifi router there than to have a bunch of people do high-speed transfers over shared, expensive and limited spectrum, with reception always varying based on the terrain and other factors that are hard to control.

When cablecos go all-digital (which Charter is doing), that'll free up a ton of bandwidth on their lines (analog signal uses a surprising amount of capacity), allowing them to crank up internet speeds at almost no extra cost.

I think wireless will be a bigger challenger in developing countries that aren't already blanketed with cable. But in North-America, cablecos can just keep using most of the same wires and upgrade modems, switches, routers, or run fiber to a neighborhood but keep the last mile copper, etc. It's not as if that's a huge disadvantage since wireless companies need to upgrade their cell towers and run fiber to them too (in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if in some places, cell towers are connected to cableco infrastructure, though I don't know that for sure).

In short: If you're sitting on your sofa at home, streaming 1080p Netflix, you get no benefit from being connected to a cell tower rather than to cable + wifi, while the wireless company would get all the disadvantages of having people take up lots of scarce spectrum, thus reducing the number of paying subscribers they can serve per cell tower.

That's my understanding of the situation, for what it's worth, but I'm not nearly as smart as Packer so take it with a grain of salt.
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gary17

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #93 on: November 25, 2013, 08:19:40 AM »
I tend to agree - my only concern is the unknown unkowns - could 4G or 5G get so fast that people want to stream using 5G or 6G instead of cable... you know, download a 1080p video in 5sec instead of 5min.    the chance of that in the next 5 years is probably low, but hard to say -


tombgrt

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #94 on: November 25, 2013, 08:50:18 AM »
I tend to agree - my only concern is the unknown unkowns - could 4G or 5G get so fast that people want to stream using 5G or 6G instead of cable... you know, download a 1080p video in 5sec instead of 5min.    the chance of that in the next 5 years is probably low, but hard to say -



Bandwidth usage will increase exponentially as well so I don't think that scenario is very likely in the near future, even if 6G was here in a couple of years.


Thanks for the discussion all!

Liberty

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #95 on: November 25, 2013, 08:58:46 AM »
Bandwidth usage will increase exponentially as well so I don't think that scenario is very likely in the near future, even if 6G was here in a couple of years.


Thanks for the discussion all!

Yeah, that would be a problem if cable was at the end of its runway. Malone says that speeds could be brought to gigabit levels pretty easily. That seems believable; I don't live somewhere known for fast internet speeds, and the local cable company has a 200mbit/s package.

If you're going to handicap it, I'd say that's a negative for wireless. The cable roadmap is pretty known and low-risk, while wireless' roadmap is less clear and they're still working on getting LTE everywhere.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

gary17

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #96 on: November 25, 2013, 09:49:34 AM »
Got a dumb question (I'm not a tech person)

So a company like ALSK is NOT a cable
It's a phone company so it's wireline broadband will be limited.... right? cuz the telephone technology is at the end...

When we talk about cable we mean a company like GNCMA? Right? 

Thanks!!

nodnub

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #97 on: November 25, 2013, 12:53:49 PM »
I tend to agree - my only concern is the unknown unkowns - could 4G or 5G get so fast that people want to stream using 5G or 6G instead of cable... you know, download a 1080p video in 5sec instead of 5min.    the chance of that in the next 5 years is probably low, but hard to say -

I think we may be at that point now for many people. For example, in North America a lot of people already have faster internet access (LTE) than on their fixed cable internet connection unless they are paying top dollar to their ISP for a premium connection (100Mbps or higher).

As far as 5G and 6G:  It looks like they are a long way off.   It took a long time to develop the standards and technology involved in each mobile generation.  I think it's possible that the pace of development will quicken in the future, if there are economic benefits to faster adoption.

(wikipedia):   
A new mobile generation has appeared approximately every 10th year since the first 1G system, Nordic Mobile Telephone, was introduced in 1981. The first 2G system started to roll out in 1992, the first 3G system first appeared in 2001 and 4G systems fully compliant with IMT Advanced were standardised in 2012. The development of the 2G (GSM) and 3G (IMT-2000 and UMTS) standards took about 10 years from the official start of the R&D projects, and development of 4G systems started in 2001 or 2002

edit: the tradeoff between mobile data and cable network data will be very region-specific, depending on the mobile data speeds and cable/phoneline network speeds in those areas.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2013, 12:57:57 PM by nodnub »

yadayada

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #98 on: December 02, 2013, 01:09:08 AM »
What is a good start to learn the telecom industry? I am looking into GNCMA, but feel no where near qualified to make a judgement so far. I am reading Malone's book, cable cowboys. Just start with reading 10k's? Found a book on amazon, but it seemed v technical, and had 800 pages :) . So that seems a bit too much for just one stock pick.

augustabound

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #99 on: December 02, 2013, 03:05:53 AM »
What is a good start to learn the telecom industry? I am looking into GNCMA, but feel no where near qualified to make a judgement so far. I am reading Malone's book, cable cowboys. Just start with reading 10k's? Found a book on amazon, but it seemed v technical, and had 800 pages :) . So that seems a bit too much for just one stock pick.

I've got an industry primer from 2007.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7ZQujnVzj_9ZDNoWXZsbi16VzA/edit?usp=sharing

I've found it useful to Google "telecom industry primer" or whichever sector you're looking for. Sometimes it's easier to search by filetype in google as pdf.
Some are outdated like one from 1999.

There was one site that had 99 primers (a torrent file though)
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