Author Topic: Did we just here a bell?  (Read 6945 times)

stahleyp

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Re: Did we just here a bell?
« Reply #30 on: March 19, 2020, 03:59:19 AM »

We're still @ like 16x trailing earnings. When has a bear market and a recession EVER ended @ 16x earnings? And those earnings haven't even really been revised down yet.

S&P 2000 and the announcement of the recession will be the time to start buying. Each rally is a selling opportunity until then.

Also, for what it's worth, I also work w/ retail investment clients. For the most part, they're doing as they should and staying the course and some are even adding. The "buy-the-dip" mentality has not been sufficiently punished for this to be the end of the selling.

Going to change my tune here. The last two business days have been filled with clients wanting to change to less volatile asset allocations (a la sell equities and buy bonds....).

Still not seeing people say sell everything yet, but we're getting closer.

two, please keep us updated on what you're seeing there.
Paul


longlake95

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Re: Did we just here a bell?
« Reply #31 on: March 23, 2020, 11:20:09 AM »
Just had a call from an acquaintance, who is terrified, and has sold a a good portion of his holdings, including some 3X-ETF type stuff. The word depression came up several times.  Maybe that was the bottom tick?

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Did we just here a bell?
« Reply #32 on: March 23, 2020, 11:50:21 AM »
Just had a call from an acquaintance, who is terrified, and has sold a a good portion of his holdings, including some 3X-ETF type stuff. The word depression came up several times.  Maybe that was the bottom tick?

When you start hearing that from people who weren't in 3x leveraged stuff, I'd be listening

The leveraged players are always the first ones out because they can't handle the ride down.

gfp

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Re: Did we just here a bell?
« Reply #33 on: March 23, 2020, 11:55:57 AM »
My next-door neighbor told me this morning from his front porch that he sold everything for him and his wife today - which will be this afternoon's closing price because it was all open ended mutual funds and index funds.  They are one year away from retirement and they just couldn't take it anymore.

gfp

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Re: Did we just hear a bell?
« Reply #34 on: March 24, 2020, 01:05:00 PM »
Neighbor's liquidation at yesterday's closing price followed by 11.4% up day on the Dow Jones Industrial Average... 

My next-door neighbor told me this morning from his front porch that he sold everything for him and his wife today - which will be this afternoon's closing price because it was all open ended mutual funds and index funds.  They are one year away from retirement and they just couldn't take it anymore.

netnet

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Re: Did we just here a bell?
« Reply #35 on: March 24, 2020, 01:15:03 PM »
My next-door neighbor told me this morning from his front porch that he sold everything for him and his wife today - which will be this afternoon's closing price because it was all open ended mutual funds and index funds.  They are one year away from retirement and they just couldn't take it anymore.

Sigh...we humans are our own worst enemy.

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Did we just here a bell?
« Reply #36 on: March 24, 2020, 01:56:17 PM »

We're still @ like 16x trailing earnings. When has a bear market and a recession EVER ended @ 16x earnings? And those earnings haven't even really been revised down yet.

S&P 2000 and the announcement of the recession will be the time to start buying. Each rally is a selling opportunity until then.

Also, for what it's worth, I also work w/ retail investment clients. For the most part, they're doing as they should and staying the course and some are even adding. The "buy-the-dip" mentality has not been sufficiently punished for this to be the end of the selling.

Going to change my tune here. The last two business days have been filled with clients wanting to change to less volatile asset allocations (a la sell equities and buy bonds....).

Still not seeing people say sell everything yet, but we're getting closer.

two, please keep us updated on what you're seeing there.

Still seeing mixed feedback. For every client adding risk, there are clients reducing risk. At this point, accounts are automatically rebalancing back to equity targets so we're net buyers, but that happens w/o client input so not sure it helps in measuring the sentiment of the crowd.

I still down think buy-the-dip has been punished enough and not seeing the kind of panic that I saw even during late-2018. Makes me think this isn't over.

Particularly since we still have yet to see the worst of this in the U.S. , Spain, India, etc.

bookie71

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Re: Did we just here a bell?
« Reply #37 on: March 24, 2020, 02:09:55 PM »
Is it really an uptick or is it another "dead cat" bounce?
Always remember, Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.

gurpaul88

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Re: Did we just here a bell?
« Reply #38 on: March 24, 2020, 03:13:55 PM »
Who knows?

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Did we just here a bell?
« Reply #39 on: March 24, 2020, 03:52:59 PM »
Is it really an uptick or is it another "dead cat" bounce?

Deadcat bounce.

Until you have clarity on what the virus' impact will be on earnings, the fear of the virus will drive more selling IMO.