Author Topic: Do you have the balls?  (Read 15070 times)

StevieV

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Re: Do you have the balls?
« Reply #30 on: March 14, 2020, 01:44:44 PM »
I myself would not go all-in on one company, either long or short.  It would be an extremely stupid thing for me to do, as I have proven I can certainly be wrong.

I'm reminded of the Buffett quote on leverage: "“If you're smart you don't need it. If you're dumb you got no business using it"

If you're a smart enough investor, why do you need to go all-in on one position?

Personally, I've got no business going all in on one position.


tede02

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Re: Do you have the balls?
« Reply #31 on: March 14, 2020, 02:16:17 PM »
At this stage, my answer is probably not. I would probably put upwards of 25% in one idea if I had ultra high confidence. But there's too much randomness in the world. You might be right on something and then a one-off event like the coronovirus or 9/11 hits.

DTEJD1997

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Re: Do you have the balls?
« Reply #32 on: March 14, 2020, 08:59:47 PM »
Why limit yourself to just one company, one position?

I am simply overwhelmed with ideas & opportunities.  There are things that were too expensive for years & Years & YEARS that I am able to buy.  Good, well run, well capitalized, solid companies.  Why not take a position in 3-4-5 or 8-9-10 of them?

Go down the quality chain and there is some stuff that is simply incredible as to it's valuation.  Companies that are making TONS of money, but might have a bit more debt than prudent.  Figure out which ones have structured debt properly and take a flyer?  If I'm right, looking at 5X returns 2-3 years from now?

So why limit yourself to just one position?  build your own portfolio, if you are good, you'll be right much more than you are wrong, AND the positions you are right on will provide YEARS of excellent returns for the portfolio.


stahleyp

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Re: Do you have the balls?
« Reply #33 on: March 15, 2020, 03:07:09 AM »
I don't believe Buffett ever put all of his net worth into one single company. I guess you could say Berkshire but at least he ran that.
Paul

Orchard

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Re: Do you have the balls?
« Reply #34 on: March 15, 2020, 07:24:19 AM »
I will once I make money or go broke 8)  Buffett and Munger never disclose their position real-time.
They also don't make a post with your title on a message board.

jeffsreng

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Re: Do you have the balls?
« Reply #35 on: March 15, 2020, 11:44:04 AM »
You want to think differently and independently.  Don't follow the herd into usual portfolio management theory, kelly formula or especially cloning others.
My risk/reward is better with my one BIG position.  I want to see if others have the same thinking.  When there is chaos, there is BIG opportunity.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 11:46:01 AM by jeffsreng »

thepupil

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Re: Do you have the balls?
« Reply #36 on: March 15, 2020, 12:02:13 PM »
hahahah you own big lots

jeffsreng

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Re: Do you have the balls?
« Reply #37 on: March 15, 2020, 12:03:21 PM »
Nope.  Think bigger.  I'm gunning for 1000X return.

Gamecock-YT

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Re: Do you have the balls?
« Reply #38 on: March 15, 2020, 03:15:20 PM »
waiting for some more bailout warrants to go all in on.

ERICOPOLY

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Re: Do you have the balls?
« Reply #39 on: March 16, 2020, 12:10:35 PM »
I don't know what the name of this strategy is...  if anyone knows a name for it that's all I'm after.

Hypothetical trading behavior as follows:  You begin with enough cash to buy the common without margin, but instead you expect volatility and don't care about potentially losing $5.50 per share between now and 2022.  So you begin by purchasing enough LEAPS calls to represent the notional value of the amount of common you could otherwise purchase with your remaining cash.  You keep doing that every time the stock drops $10.
WFC at $50.  Pay $5.50 for 2022 at-the-money leaps.
WFC at $40.  Pay another $5.50 for 2022 at-the-money leaps.
WFC at $30.  Pay another $5.50 for 2022 at-the-money leaps
WFC at $20.  Pay another $5.50 for 2022 at-the-money leaps
WFC at $10.  Pay another $5.50 for 2022 at-the-money leaps
etc.. etc...

You just keep accumulating calls.

2022 is on the other side of an estimated timeline for a vaccine to be widely available (12-18 months)

Jokes aside, is there a name for this kind of a trading strategy?

« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 12:12:17 PM by ERICOPOLY »