Author Topic: Future strategy to survive discovering 1 out of every 20 bbls of oil we now use.  (Read 269110 times)

SafetyinNumbers

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I would definitely argue this is a variant perception:

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/79437-a-real-conversation-with-mark-gordon-an-unprecedented-opportunity-i?type=macro

It’s a bullish argument, in case you enjoy confirmation bias or being outraged.
Top 5 positions: ATTO.N ELF.TO TII.V GCM.NT/GCM.WT.B PIF.TO


woodstove

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Thank you both for those presentation links.  Fascinating perspectives.


sculpin

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https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/shales-amazing-world-changing-lousy-decade

Ben Dell, the Bernstein analyst who wrote that report on Chesapeake, went on to found Kimmeridge Energy Management Co., a private equity firm that has engaged in shareholder activism with several E&P companies. These campaigns have echoed the central demands in that report from 2009: better governance and financial discipline.

In particular, Kimmeridge urges smaller E&P companies to merge in order to cut overheads, direct the savings into shareholder payouts and completely overhaul management compensation, with a heavy emphasis on stock awards linked to absolute total shareholder return.

SharperDingaan

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Investors can only buy, hold, or sell. Even if an investor actually can change a company's governance or culture.
Sadly, investors will also either swamp the doors or rush the exits, rather than just accept the hand dealt - or walking away.
All that we can really do is recognize that booms/busts are part of the process, and invest accordingly.

SD



« Last Edit: December 29, 2019, 02:36:20 PM by SharperDingaan »

SharperDingaan

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And it starts ...     https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKBN1YY0II

"The U.S. military carried out air strikes on Sunday against the Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia group in response to the killing of a U.S. civilian contractor in a rocket attack on an Iraqi military base, officials said." "Iraqi security sources said on Monday that U.S. forces in Iraq’s northerly Nineveh province were ramping up security overnight, with U.S.-led coalition jets circling the perimeter of its military bases in Mosul and Qayarah."

The Aramco underwriters guarantee expired just before Christmas, and delivered the 2T valuation that MBS wanted.
A week later - aggressive US strikes on both Syria and Iraq (routinely 're-branding' six digit boe/d of Iranian crude crossing the border)
Captive IPO buyers need an exit, and few in the west are going to object to strikes that close that 're-branding' facility.
Can't smuggle, if you have no product to smuggle.

May we all do well.

SD
« Last Edit: December 30, 2019, 12:21:26 PM by SharperDingaan »

Joe689

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Embassy now under siege and oil drops a buck.  Never a dull moment. 

Hope all the Americans stay unharmed. 

This will be a tough situation for Trump to navigate with Iraq PM turning on us

Joe689

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And it escalates...

TwoCitiesCapital

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So where are we at now? I've generally agreed energy has provided an value opportunity and is attractively priced.

At the high level, I also agreed with the thesis that a tightening of the oil markets was the most likely outcome do to increased demand and decreased investment/discovery following a tough time for the industry.

But that doesn't really seem to have happened over the last few years. Oil prices still remain range bound between $50-60. Despite the obvious skepticism towards certain releases of inventory builds and etc, I would think after a year or two of growing demand we would've been in for a period of sustained price rises if supply was actually tightening relative to demand.

So what is the current state of oil/gas markets? When can we expect the long awaited tightening between supply/demand? Anyone care to hazard a guess?

SharperDingaan

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Supposedly 2020 US production is going to keep on rising, despite the current disruption in the US shale fields.
Could even be true, but it will be 're-branded' Canadian crude making up the difference ;) 

SD