Author Topic: Future strategy to survive discovering 1 out of every 20 bbls of oil we now use.  (Read 256896 times)

SharperDingaan

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The article simply highlights that US crude output is vulnerable.
And the more the chump doubles down on tariffs, the greater everyone else's incentive becomes.

Sanctions can be very easily circumvented, especially between complicit parties; and Europe doesn't hold the chumps view on Iran.
Its easy to take market share from the US, & maintain no net change in supply. Buyers simply buy from other than the US, and Iran, Russia, & SA all have additional capacity. US crude has readily available substitutes.

It really adds up to giving up the tariffs BS.
You can bully all you want, but you cant fight the whole school-yard at the same time.

SD





 


Zorrofan

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Sanctions can be very easily circumvented, especially between complicit parties; and Europe doesn't hold the chumps view on Iran.
Its easy to take market share from the US, & maintain no net change in supply. Buyers simply buy from other than the US, and Iran, Russia, & SA all have additional capacity. US crude has readily available substitutes.

SD,

Lets say that Iran, Russia and SA do have excess capacity. How much excess capacity they have is open to debate but not likely all that much. There is still the issue of declining production from Venezuela, fighting in Libya, global decline rates estimated at 3 million BPD and the lack of investment in new production at the mega project scale for the past three years. Unless demand plunges the world will need US shale oil and then some. 

cheers
Zorro

SharperDingaan

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The intent of something like this is to EVIDENCE that oil CAN be tarrifed, and that US production CAN BE easily substituted.
The level, & quantity, of noise is really to distract from the fact that it (may/has) actually occurred.

The objective is a ratchet of pain to support the removal of tarrifs, that just hurt everyone.
See sense, and the whole thing could vanish tomorrow.

SD


Cardboard

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One chump in this thread and it is not Trump.

Must be a voter for Wynne.

All the arguments are void of any logic.

Cardboard

SharperDingaan

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One chump in this thread and it is not Trump.

Must be a voter for Wynne.

All the arguments are void of any logic.

Cardboard

You're welcome.

But I'm not the one with the derailed tanker train on the rail link to Stroud.
Real smart running these things through floodwater plains when the river is flooding.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/train-from-alberta-leaks-oil-iowa-1.4719569

"Officials at the scene agreed that floodwater from the swollen Little Rock River played a part in causing the cars to leave the tracks, but said they weren't yet sure whether the waters compromised the track, physically pushed the cars off it or played a part in some other way. The river rose rapidly Wednesday after 13 to 18 centimetres of rain fell Wednesday and a further downpour on Thursday."

I get that Albertas industry thinks the whole world is against it, but it sure continues to insist on NOT doing itself any favours.
And just to wind you up - I went with Ford. 'Cause we're in the POT business now, & I would prefer the province be run by those with business experience in this fine product!

SD
 



« Last Edit: June 24, 2018, 09:25:10 AM by SharperDingaan »

Cardboard

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Now it is Alberta's fault because a train has derailed while your were blaming the industry and province and calling for them to equip themselves with a fleet of railcars to store/carry crude...

Sue BNSF as they are the ones responsible and not the other way around. A few billion $ fine would teach Buffett a lesson on supporting those who block much, much safer pipelines.

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Cardboard

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360,000 barrels/day offline until end of July:

https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN1JI2S1-OCABS

Cardboard

Cardboard

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Saudis in panic mode:

If these anonymous sources are correct, which as a warning is often complete lies, then the Saudis are truly panicking to prevent an oil spike following Libya and Canada's latest outage:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/26/oil-prices-uncertainty-over-libyan-crude-exports-in-focus.html

To pump at their max rate of 10.8 million barrels/day is pre-2016 deal to cut. That also means that other players (including Russia) are near completely unable to help with the 1 million barrels/day agreed increase.

The oil market came down following these reports and is now at the day high. The market is finally seeing the truth: spare capacity no more.

Saudis would have to go beyond their record production level to bring any worldwide spare capacity which has never been tested before and 10.8 million barrels/day was only done for a few months to crush shale which was the stupid strategy from the previous guy. Read running flat out!

Moreover, they have not invested at all in new drilling or facilities for that so called "spare capacity" since then with large budget deficits and their long term vision.

This summer is looking hotter than normal and it is probably also the case for the Middle East and their need for power, we are already at record consumption level and growing. Things should get quite interesting...

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Cardboard

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And Trump doing his best not to hurt the mid-term election: read start of Iranian cuts in November. Why not now?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/26/oil-buyers-must-cut-all-iranian-crude-imports-by-november-state-dept-.html

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SharperDingaan

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It's nice to have tightening supply, but that Iranian crude is not going to go away.
Unlike VZ and Libya it's available to all, & at a time when incremental supply is hard to come by. This is what middle-men are for.
The only way that oil stays out of the market is if the loading terminals experience an accident, & there is no retaliation.

SD