Author Topic: Oil & Gas Sector Investing  (Read 3719 times)

scorpioncapital

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Re: Oil & Gas Sector Investing
« Reply #40 on: December 03, 2019, 12:20:49 PM »
"Alberta Tar Sands are B/E at around USD 50, US shale basins are around USD 55-60."

Isn't it a testament to some sort of infrastructure superiority that US shale with a higher cost than tar sands has gotten to market faster and in larger quantities?



SharperDingaan

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Re: Oil & Gas Sector Investing
« Reply #41 on: December 03, 2019, 01:34:59 PM »
"Alberta Tar Sands are B/E at around USD 50, US shale basins are around USD 55-60."

Isn't it a testament to some sort of infrastructure superiority that US shale with a higher cost than tar sands has gotten to market faster and in larger quantities?

Abundant egress does indeed cover a number of sins!
.... But it also gives rise to the cowboy approach, & little/zero capital discipline.

SD


sculpin

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Re: Oil & Gas Sector Investing
« Reply #42 on: December 04, 2019, 11:34:56 AM »
Saw this on the Investor Village Board. Either tells how overvalued Aramco is or how undervalued Canadian Natural is...

CNQ v's Aramco

CNQ to produce next year 1.2 million bopd

Aramco to export about 9 million bopd. ( domestic sales subsidising S.A. so I ignored )

CNQ open market valuate on NYSE currently $33- billion.

So equivalent value for Aramco ( assume political risk of Canada similar to S.A. ) should be $247 billion.

Alternatively if banks MBS etc., correct in their valuation of Aramco then

CNQ should be valued at $227 billion or $196,- per share.

(That's probably underestimating CNQ as their reserves probably greater than Aramco and in fairness Canada possibly
more politically stable that S.A. )

For the above valuation I charge no fees.
After all New York banks/ Wall Street are valuing BOTH Aramco & CNQ.

( Disclosure CNQ my largest position by far )

mcliu

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Re: Oil & Gas Sector Investing
« Reply #43 on: December 04, 2019, 03:03:49 PM »
Saw this on the Investor Village Board. Either tells how overvalued Aramco is or how undervalued Canadian Natural is...

CNQ v's Aramco

CNQ to produce next year 1.2 million bopd

Aramco to export about 9 million bopd. ( domestic sales subsidising S.A. so I ignored )

CNQ open market valuate on NYSE currently $33- billion.

So equivalent value for Aramco ( assume political risk of Canada similar to S.A. ) should be $247 billion.

Alternatively if banks MBS etc., correct in their valuation of Aramco then

CNQ should be valued at $227 billion or $196,- per share.

(That's probably underestimating CNQ as their reserves probably greater than Aramco and in fairness Canada possibly
more politically stable that S.A. )

For the above valuation I charge no fees.
After all New York banks/ Wall Street are valuing BOTH Aramco & CNQ.

( Disclosure CNQ my largest position by far )

Except they have totally different finding and operating costs..

LC

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Re: Oil & Gas Sector Investing
« Reply #44 on: December 04, 2019, 03:15:37 PM »
Ultimately you are making a call on the future price of oil during your holding period

It's this pretty much with any other alpha coming from deep DD on particular companies and/or their situations.

Obviously a lot of factors go into oil prices, but on a long-term scale, here's what the story in the US looks like:





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