Author Topic: Future strategy to survive discovering 1 out of every 20 bbls of oil we now use.  (Read 257138 times)

SharperDingaan

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I have little doubt that Iranian production will be curtailed under sanctions.
Deduct 1.7 M boe/d from the 4.47M boe/d they were pumping as at Feb 2018 and you get to 2.8M boed/d. Immediately prior to the 2015 Nuclear Deal they were doing 3.3M boe/d. There is a strong possibility that the 0.5M boe/day (15%) drop over the 3 years period since the deal, is primarily attributable to just everyday depletion.

However 4.47M boe/d of Iranian crude IS being sold, their crude has a market even though it is primarily sour oil.
Hence if there are going to be reductions existing buyers have to agree to enforce US sanctions. We know the US view is not widely shared, Iran has the ability to independently deliver cargo, and that at the state level - sanctions are very easy to evade.

Todays trade war doesn't encourage cooperatation.
Even if the US were to place gun-boats outside Iranian loading facilities, its questionable as to whether its enforceable.
But it will provide great media images, sure to boost oil prices.

In short a big reduction in legal sales of Iranian crude - offset by an increase in illegal sales.
Could well be a net reduction, but not so sure it's going to be as big as thought.

SD
 

   
« Last Edit: June 27, 2018, 01:28:36 PM by SharperDingaan »


tombgrt

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Holy shit that draw!


Joe689

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Equities anyone?  anyone?  Bueller.     This will be like this all summer.  This should be the tip of rush into energy.   been saying that for a year lol

tombgrt

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Equities anyone?  anyone?  Bueller.     This will be like this all summer.  This should be the tip of rush into energy.   been saying that for a year lol

Nah, let's endlessly debate whether Brk is 12% of 17% undervalued as there clearly are no undervalued stocks around. :X

People claiming beating the market is impossible lately but if they have to jump in some ugly ponds for once (after being spoiled for years), they steer clear. Same with EM equities two years back.Then last year these stocks jumped 30%. Bank stocks couple years back too. At least with those many did well. Greece, .... . Ah well...
« Last Edit: June 27, 2018, 04:30:47 PM by tombgrt »

Uccmal

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Equities anyone?  anyone?  Bueller.     This will be like this all summer.  This should be the tip of rush into energy.   been saying that for a year lol

Nah, let's endlessly debate whether Brk is 12% of 17% undervalued as there clearly are no undervalued stocks around. :X

People claiming beating the market is impossible lately but if they have to jump in some ugly ponds for once (after being spoiled for years), they steer clear. Same with EM equities two years back.Then last year these stocks jumped 30%. Bank stocks couple years back too. At least with those many did well. Greece, .... . Ah well...

There is a distinct lack of humility creeping into this thread.....  :-)
GARP tending toward value

tombgrt

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Equities anyone?  anyone?  Bueller.     This will be like this all summer.  This should be the tip of rush into energy.   been saying that for a year lol

Nah, let's endlessly debate whether Brk is 12% of 17% undervalued as there clearly are no undervalued stocks around. :X

People claiming beating the market is impossible lately but if they have to jump in some ugly ponds for once (after being spoiled for years), they steer clear. Same with EM equities two years back.Then last year these stocks jumped 30%. Bank stocks couple years back too. At least with those many did well. Greece, .... . Ah well...

There is a distinct lack of humility creeping into this thread.....  :-)

No, I'm still humble and know this market could crash down any moment, erasing all gains. Just frustrated at people claiming there are no bargains and then turning around and thinking BRK offers them the best value. Aside from a few regulars, oil stocks get zero love on this board, big surprise! I bought BRK.B under $70 years ago and it was cheap for years. But now people fall over each other arguing over little price moves and valuation differences. And I'm up 120% over last 18 months with 10+ names up over 50%. Very very lucky but also calling bs on people claiming outperforming is nearly impossible or that value is dead for now.

Uccmal

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Equities anyone?  anyone?  Bueller.     This will be like this all summer.  This should be the tip of rush into energy.   been saying that for a year lol

Nah, let's endlessly debate whether Brk is 12% of 17% undervalued as there clearly are no undervalued stocks around. :X

People claiming beating the market is impossible lately but if they have to jump in some ugly ponds for once (after being spoiled for years), they steer clear. Same with EM equities two years back.Then last year these stocks jumped 30%. Bank stocks couple years back too. At least with those many did well. Greece, .... . Ah well...

There is a distinct lack of humility creeping into this thread.....  :-)

No, I'm still humble and know this market could crash down any moment, erasing all gains. Just frustrated at people claiming there are no bargains and then turning around and thinking BRK offers them the best value. Aside from a few regulars, oil stocks get zero love on this board, big surprise! I bought BRK.B under $70 years ago and it was cheap for years. But now people fall over each other arguing over little price moves and valuation differences. And I'm up 120% over last 18 months with 10+ names up over 50%. Very very lucky but also calling bs on people claiming outperforming is nearly impossible or that value is dead for now.

I was kidding.  We have been through the wringer for sure.  Its good to see some success.  And I agree with you re: faux value investing. 
GARP tending toward value

tombgrt

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Ah, didn't read into that well then, my bad. Of course, even mentioning it jokingly, you are correct to remind people to stay humble. It is certainly a reminder I can use after the last few months.

I've methodically sold off my calls as to lower risks, although I would have been far better off if I had kept them all. I hope I keep that common sense and partly reinvest future winnings into simple etfs and the like. Buffett's quote on risking what you have for something you don't need comes to mind.

sculpin

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And the Canadian energy stocks go down as WTI goes > $73...

Edmonton Mixed Sweet (C$/bbl) 88.34 +3.16

We must be near C$90 to for PAR

I could probably find this realized pricing in 2012-2013 when C$ was near par and discounts hit -$25- $35 for Brent vs Par

CPG was probably $39 then instead of $9 today...OG stocks down? Not kept up again with WTI and especially not PAR. We must be at the all time cheapest multiples in the history of this sector.

Maybe 20% dividend if prodn kept flat using FCF at C$88 Par, most were already at 15% FCF in a flat prodn scenario.

Major shake up of sector needed with new mgt teams who surface value...get rid of the bums like SPE & RRX who are self serving mgt teams.

Sure brokers are using strip $10 lower then current spot pricing....but why use strip when its always wrong and doesn't reflect current reality. Strip for last 12 months has been horrible as 12 months ago forward contracts delivered today would be under $50 wti. Year ago strip is wrong by $25! Even still the future strip shows major FCF for many OG names....

tombgrt

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Yes Sculpin, ridiculous price action. Patience! I'm at the point where I wish I could do more work to finetune portfolio but honestly believe I'll just mess it up if I do something. Need to sit on my hands and find some other sector/region or entirely different hobby to focus on.

Did pick up some more ATU at 0.57 Friday though, had some cash. What a bargain if they execute!