Author Topic: The day after tomorrow  (Read 20679 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #140 on: June 01, 2020, 04:00:24 AM »
Doo...  "I also want to take philosophy and psychology & donít think these subjects would be as beneficial without face to face discussions."

A good course in Abnormal Psychology is fascinating and I guarantee you will use it frequently throughout your life. It will help you read people and give you a good idea of why people do the things they do and what you can expect of some. Just my 2 cents worth.

Searched on Youtube, and came up with these two playlists:

This one looks serious:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLVOkPP48wA&list=PLoajPXQqU0rGQ2z-UEZVk8wtTNQHEZqdu

And this one seems a bit more fun:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuhJ-GkRRQc&list=PLG61LF8I_OXryVWpwXAq7DM9Z9kx24mOJ

What do you reckon?

Kahnemannís Books should be a must. Economics and psychology are joined at the hip as Munger correctly stated.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.


Cigarbutt

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #141 on: June 01, 2020, 04:15:36 AM »
re AHHAP

Ahhh - glory days!

Compared to other subprime lenders, LEND had an interesting structure and that was what drew me to it after sub-prime blew up in early 2007.  As an aside I also had an investment in ECRO after it sold its origination platform to Bear Stearns.  IIRC, in 2008 - two of my top five positions at times were sub-prime mortgage lenders (ECRO, AHHAP).

I can dig through my files if you have any specific questions about the Chapter 11 case.

wabuffo
Thank you for the appetizer, i will take care of the rest through some research.
Housing subprime lenders ended up doing better than thought after a period that seemed like an eternity from a liquidity standpoint.
In that specific case, fraudulent conveyance-like scenarios had to be taken into account and there were potential legal technicalities. The tax refund aspect appears interesting.
As for any relevance going forward, in the event of unusual economic hardship on the typical subprime borrower, it's possible that some lower FICO score segments do surprising well allowing for unexpected performance for many auto loans securitizations.
Thanks.

DooDiligence

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #142 on: June 01, 2020, 05:50:03 AM »
Doo...  "I also want to take philosophy and psychology & donít think these subjects would be as beneficial without face to face discussions."

A good course in Abnormal Psychology is fascinating and I guarantee you will use it frequently throughout your life. It will help you read people and give you a good idea of why people do the things they do and what you can expect of some. Just my 2 cents worth.

Searched on Youtube, and came up with these two playlists:

This one looks serious:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLVOkPP48wA&list=PLoajPXQqU0rGQ2z-UEZVk8wtTNQHEZqdu

And this one seems a bit more fun:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuhJ-GkRRQc&list=PLG61LF8I_OXryVWpwXAq7DM9Z9kx24mOJ

What do you reckon?

I vote for link #2.

My Intro to Biology instructor referenced a handful of videos with the same guy explaining meiosis, mitosis, etc.

I enjoyed them a lot.

YouTube is a gift!
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Spekulatius

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Re: The day after tomorrow
« Reply #143 on: June 03, 2020, 05:43:17 AM »
RGA - Life reinsurer raising cash. They were estimating 100k death in the US in their last CC which is obviously too low.

Their largest exposure is US (45%) and the UK (17%) which both have high mortalities and are not well contained.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reinsurance-group-america-announces-pricing-035400964.html

Doesnít seem that bullish to me, on the other hand  RGA was considered well managed.

Based on a cursory look at the 424b filing , it seem like each 100k in US death cost them $400-500M in claims. They are raising a bit less than $500 in equity right now. Maybe itís a short the way things are going...
« Last Edit: June 03, 2020, 05:49:49 AM by Spekulatius »
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.